Large quake probability continues to drop

PAUL GORMAN
Last updated 14:29 21/11/2012

Relevant offers

National News

Has Winston Peters scuppered David Carter's chances of London High Commissioner post? Pilots share the scariest things they don't tell the passengers about How to plant a bare-root rose Petone bank robbery suspect on the run How being an expat can make you cool Cruz downloads on 'amoral' Donald Trump as Indiana goes to the polls David Hasselhoff engaged to Hayley Roberts NBA notes referee mistakes in final seconds of Spurs game with Thunder

The probability of a large aftershock somewhere in the central Canterbury earthquake zone continues to drop as a result of lower seismic activity in recent months.

In GNS Science's updated calculations released today, the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 shake in the next 12 months is 69 per cent, compared with 82 per cent in January.

Over the same period there is a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake in the aftershock zone, which runs from the foothills in the west to Pegasus Bay in the east and from Rangiora in the north to Tai Tapu in the south.
That has fallen from a 39 per cent probability in January.

The chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 aftershock is now 9 per cent, down from 13 per cent in January, while there is only a 2 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 event in the next year, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year.

GNS Science says the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake in the next year remains unchanged at 1 per cent.

Ad Feedback

- The Press

Comments

Special offers

Featured Promotions

Sponsored Content