Let the sun shine in
Make the most of the sun we're promised this week because there's more wet on the way for the Far North, according to NIWA.
Principal scientist Brett Mullan says rainfall, soil moisture levels and river flows are all expected to be above normal between now and November.
"August was warm but temperatures are expected to drop back. You're not likely to experience a dry spring," he says.
A weak El Nino pattern is present but forecast models do not yet show signs of the enhanced southwesterly and westerly airflow that is usually associated with it and we are not likely to see the scenario in the north, he says.
Spring air and sea temperatures are likely to be near average.
NIWA describes El Nino as a natural feature of the global climate system.
Originally it was the name given to the periodic development of unusually warm ocean waters along the tropical South American coast and out along the Equator to the dateline.
But now it is more generally used to describe a whole El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, a global climate fluctuation that occurs at the time of the ocean warming event.
The trade winds weaken during El Nino, leading to a rise in sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
The pattern of occurrence of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific shifts eastward so there are more cyclones than normal in areas such as the Cook Islands.
Kerikeri weather station statistics show we experienced 143 wet days this year - producing 1032mm of rain compared to 1267mm last year at this time.