We are living in the future shock

By FINLAY MACDONALD

Climate change, terrorism, financial instability, peak oil, soaring food and fuel costs... whatever happened to the future?

According to the predictions of my childhood, by now I should be flying to work in an air car and have partially lost the use of my legs due to labour-saving technology rendering physical effort redundant; inter-planetary travel should be routine, and human conflict should have been left behind due to our super-evolved brains and generally more enlightened society.

The early 1970s was such an exciting time, at least if you were a kid. Science fiction thrived, encouraging a view of things to come as inevitably better. 2001: A Space Odyssey was already old, Concorde had just taken off, there were six manned moon landings between 1969 and 1972, Ziggy Stardust had landed to save us with Martian rock'n'roll... it really was great to be living in the past.

Yes, there was Vietnam, Watergate, Baader-Meinhof, the Yom Kippur War and the death of the 60s. But that was the present, which to the pre-teen consciousness is just background noise. Of course it was too good to last.

But if someone had told me back then that the early 21st century would in fact be a time of insecurity, paranoia and fear about the future I would have been amazed. That's what's happened, though faith in human progress replaced by an all-pervasive sense of impending doom.

Part of the reason, surely, is that none of us are very well equipped to understand the new millennium's problems, let alone suggest solutions. This is as true of the mystery of how a block of cheese can cost so much as it is of climate change both baffling phenomena to your average carbon-footprint-leaving consumer.

In the latter case, not only are we expected to take on trust that it is really occurring, we are also required to buy into a proposed solution the emissions trading scheme so technically convoluted and practically disputed that one's eyes glaze over at the mere thought of deciphering it.

If you're not one of those natural born Cassandras who actually enjoy prophecies of doom, it can seem overwhelming. Fear of the unknown has become a policy setting.

The same is true of Muslim fundamentalism and terror. While the letters to the editor and op-ed pages groan with pseudo-profundity about the nature of Islam and the perceived threats to western democracy, not that many years ago most of us didn't know our Mohammed from our muesli.

Now we're expected to care about the differences between Sunni and Shi'ite, and have an opinion about the consequences of the collapse of the Ottoman Caliphate.

And tell me how one is supposed to intelligently debate the origins of the credit crisis or the latest oil shock? Even experts appear confused by the complexity of modern financial products and derivatives such as the kind of so-called collateralised debt obligations lying buried in the rubble of the sub-prime mortgage collapse. The best most of us can do is nod sagely at talk of the absurdity of unfettered banking systems, all the while watching our personal exposure to global credit markets with heart in mouth.

Similarly, one looks in vain for readily understood explication of the price of petrol. There seems to be much speculation that it's at least partly caused by speculation, although how that speculation occurs seems to be mainly speculation.

Oil futures trading the buying and selling of notional "paper oil" may account for 60% of the current price of a tank of gas. Imagine the kind of monetary heft required to influence a commodity so fundamental to the world economy.

According to some observers, the real price of oil is now set by Wall St, not Opec. Yet regulation that would at least cause the costs to be subject to the laws of supply and demand rather than market manipulation doesn't seem to be on any government agenda. Perhaps this is just another sign of the declining role of the nation state and the increasing power of trans-national corporations to determine economic reality. Just another thing to worry about, I guess.

Alternative theories are hardly more reassuring.

Rampant demand from India and China may also explain the price spikes but that won't diminish any time soon and assuming you accept its veracity peak oil will do the rest.

Some find solace in our human capacity for innovation, in necessity being the mother of invention, in hybrid cars and sustainable energy. Others predict shortages, industrial decline, resource wars and a new Dark Ages. Your preference will depend on your temperament, probably, but there are food riots and fuel protests taking place right now around the world. Signs?

Who knows. Maybe every generation experiences that inevitable transition from youthful optimism to mature pessimism but to mine it seems particularly pointed. Raised on shooting for the moon, we've ended up fretting for the Earth. The future really ain't what it used to be.

finlay.macdonald@star-times.co.nz

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Hakon Damm   #11   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Life! Don't talk to me about life! When it comes down to it, the way we live our daily lives is what counts. Predictions about the future that deal with spaceships and skyscrapers and nuclear-powered gerbil stretchers are all very interesting, but the predictions that really hit home and that we can judge most accurately are those that deal with how we spend our everyday lives; how we eat, where we live, how we work, and how we play.

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rusty   #10   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Harvey, you 6ft rabbit! Haven't seen you in years! But... come to think of it...

"The future really ain't what it used to be." Well, neither was the past, really.

However, in the past it was "normal" to invest time and effort in one's family and friends. No Sunday shopping trips to buy more consumer goods manufactured and imported from low wage economies. Why is it surprising that those dollars going off-shore have unleashed competitive consumer demand in those countries sending international prices soaring? What else could be the result? Poor Mother Earth.

Like Siddhartha, we could be mature enough to examine the cost/benefit of continuing along this consumer driven path and, perhaps, return to the personal fulfillment of a life in harmony with our local environment.

Consider that every dollar spent is a vote for who will be the Masters of Tomorrow. That's just the way it is. One gets what one pays for.

H.Habanero   #9   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

I have felt the same way. The future has turned out to be a profound disapointment. Looks like we overestimated our abilities and now the reality check is here.

6ftrabbit   #8   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Rusty, somewhat hypocritical of you while typing away on your computer don't you think? Besides if everyone did what you suggest, no one would be aware of this issue at all, and we would all be far too busy shoveling manure and hoeing our veggie gardens to take a walk in a park.

Taylor   #7   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Nice article.

However as a youth myself, i am very excited about the future, these alarmist theories don't bother me. I agree with rusty, chillaxing with mates will end all your worries.

Neal Grout   #6   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

We had plenty of warnings in the 70s that this was going to happen but because we were on the upslope of human population growth and resource exploitation no one was realy listening. I'm now constantly reminded of that line from the film Full Metal Jacket;

"Its a big shit sandwich and were all going to have to take a bite"

oogabooga   #5   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Strange indeed that governments are unwilling to do anything about the speculation aspect, eventually the ever increasing price of oil is going to reach a point where it demand will begin to drop. Just a matter of time. Sadly I suspect a lot people are going to be hurt in the process. Some businesses will simply no longer be viable. Now the government is no doubt consoled by the extra tax revenue they're taking, but this will be put in the shade if some industries start to tank.

Personally I see both the good and bad, financially all this credit crunch nonsense etc and the price of oil is hurting me big time, but on the other hand, the environment is going to benefit. I suspect oil prices are affecting the numbers taking their boats out on the water, and affecting the fishing industry, maybe fish stocks might finally stop dwindling in the future. I sure hope so, because the environmental damage I've seen in 20 years of diving is saddening.

Funny thing about oil prices though, no bugger seems to be driving any slower . Drive at 90 - 100k/h on most open roads and you'll likely be the slowest car out there, overtaken by an endless stream of speed freaks. Probably the biggest moaners about oil prices I bet.

andy   #4   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

You Sir are a genius to sum all that up so simply.

rusty   #3   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Well, for starters, turn off the computer, unplug the ipod, switch off the plasma TV, and the global roaming cell phone. Get out of the car, hybrid or otherwise, and take a walk in a local park. Invite a friend. Pack a picnic. Or grow your own small garden.

And in doing so, reflect on how much our "super evolved brains" really crave the outsourced entertainment, distraction and stress. Technology should be a tool, not a master.

Get off the globalisation treadmill and discover that the present can be made to be a reasonably pleasant place. Think locally - act locally. And stop letting oneself be conned by the politicians, media and marketters.

Steven Alexander   #2   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Thank you. Your article made my day.

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