Maori Party holds the Key

THE LONG VIEW - RICHARD LONG

National could, conceivably, get enough votes in November to govern alone – but what would be the point? That's the part that is missing in the media commentary on political opinion polls.

Even if National emerges from the election with a clear majority, it would still be essential to form an alliance with a third party. Otherwise it would be setting itself up for a one-term government.

It would be mightily appealing, after years of stultifying MMP deals and compromises, to emulate American Civil War admiral David Farragut and cry, "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead". But that would leave the party without support in 2011.

It's the choice of partner that is going to cause surprise in many quarters.

Wise heads in National have recognised that it has to be the Maori Party: nothing else is viable long term. Forget United Future's Peter Dunne. He will be back with one seat only.

Forget ACT. Rodney Hide may have another benchmate after the election, but not much more. Their caucuses could be held, as they say, in a phone box.

Forget the Greens. Their policies and constituency would make a deal with National too difficult.

That leaves NZ First, if Winston Peters can get his party over the 5 per cent threshold, or the Maori Party.

And as unlikely as it seems from the outside, a Maori Party- National accommodation is achievable, though it will cause some heartburn in National's blue-rinse heartland.

It will also cause consternation among some Maori Party supporters. They have always preferred Labour, for their party vote, after sending their constituency votes to their own candidates.

But insiders say that that alignment is now wavering and the Maori Party may win more double ticks this time around.

The Maori Party will be back with an increased presence in the new Parliament, with polling indicating they could take all Maori seats except the South Island.

Even Labour's Nanaia Mahuta is no longer regarded as safe in fiercely loyal Hauraki- Waikato. And broadcaster Derek Fox, the former mayor of Wairoa, is running neck and neck with Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia on the East Coast (Ikaroa-Rawhiti).

National leader John Key, deputy leader Bill English, Gerry Brownlee and Georgina te Heuheu are among those maintaining a dialogue with the Maori Party, whose leader, Tariana Turia, and deputy leader, Pita Sharples, are highly rated.

There are major policy differences, but not as many as might be expected – and they are not insurmountable.

Foremost among these is National's pledge to abolish the Maori seats once historic grievances have been settled, expected by 2014. In parts of the National Party heartland, that policy is sacrosanct. But the Maori Party will demand that this be jettisoned in the interests of an alliance.

The royal commission that brought us MMP recommended that the Maori seats should go as a result of the electoral change, but, without overwhelming support in Parliament, the seats may have to continue till a logical time presents itself.

The foreshore and seabed legislation is another difference. That was a Labour initiative (though largely supported by National) but again the will of Parliament must prevail. Amendments may be possible. Mr Fox, and others, have views on this.

Even National's policy for a referendum on MMP should not unduly concern the Maori Party. It wins constituency seats.

As for industrial law, the Maori Party leadership at one stage backed National's initiative for a 90-day trial period for new employees. The leadership realised the change would help the disadvantaged get a foot on the employment ladder, but eventually had to abandon support for the clause because of opposition from the party grassroots.

Differences over the foreshore and seabed legislation will probably require the Maori Affairs portfolio to remain in National hands, possibly with Mrs te Heuheu or Tau Henare.

But two Maori Party portfolio allocations are obvious. The party has strong views on social welfare, an area of major concern in Maoridom, and it would be reasonable to expect this portfolio to go to Ms Turia or Dr Sharples.

Education is another huge area of interest and the Maori Party would have a claim on an associate education minister role, as well as other portfolios.

I would love to see the shake- up that would result if Derek Fox was allocated the broadcasting portfolio.

- © Fairfax NZ News