Nats about to be handed a poisoned chalice

Eighteen years ago, the National Party and Jim Bolger were gifted an unloseable election. The Labour government was shot, the economy was in the toilet and New Zealanders were screaming, "enough" upset at the untoward influence of the Beehive upon their lives.

Flash forward six elections, and the scenario is exactly the same. The Nats and John Key can start choosing their ministerial homes, allocating their portfolios and selecting their advisers. A combination of dog tiredness, a dogged social agenda and a dog of an economy will usher Labour into inevitable opposition.

Sure, there are still four weeks of campaigning to go. But the polls chasm is too great to bridge and the momentum for change is too strong. I haven't met a Labour MP yet who privately says that Helen Clark is due a fourth term. They are not the rabble they were in 1990, and Helen Clark is not the hydra-headed monster that was the then Labour leadership, but it matters not. It's all over.

However, there is one important difference between 1990 and 2008. The mixed member proportional electoral system a system that allows disaffected Labour supporters the opportunity to cast a meaningful vote other than stay at home, or vote for National.

The irony of this election is that it is MMP that is most at risk. Since 1996, the minor parties have been assured of an untoward influence by the fact that neither National nor Labour has ever challenged the 50 per cent mark when it comes to popular support. But this year, John Key and the Nats have surpassed that absolute majority in virtually every opinion poll.

So that will be the first flag for commentators, columnists and all the other petty potentates drawn to opine on this year's election. Will National govern alone?

Certainly, it would prefer to do so. If it could keep Act to its right, and out of Cabinet, then it could position itself closer to the mainstream centre for future elections. And placate some fair-sized egos in its caucus with a couple more Cabinet slots. Although National is as close to the middle as it's possible to be most of its policies are a mix of me too-ism and wishy-washiness. Their aim being not only to not scare the horses but pacify the horse flies as well.

Quite how pragmatic National is prepared to become is revealed in those secret party cocktail tapes leaked to TV3. National wants to win: everything else is secondary.

The only vaguely concerned factions in our society will be bureaucrats and gangs. If an incoming National government goes after both in its first 100 days, then they would win the 2011 general election before Easter of next year. But what's the bet they don't?

Indeed the truly endangered species comprise parliament's third parties and this will provide the only other sporting interest on election night.

Every election since 1999, I've opined that this coming election must be NZ First's last. Say it long enough, and eventually these things come true. The 5% threshold is beyond their reach and there will be no rapprochement in Tauranga. A spurned partner does not re-admit an ex-lover.

Then there is this pervasive feeling that casting a vote for a third party is a wasted vote. Which it probably is. Either National or Labour dominates after post-election negotiations offering piggy-poos light-bulbs or a "golden card" of negligible benefit does not make up for being the parliamentary fag of the larger party.

There are two exceptions to this the Greens and the Maori Party. The Greens are the closest New Zealand politics has to a New Age cult. Their voters and supporters believe themselves elevated above mere politics their quest is to save the planet, one unshaven armpit at a time. They are doubly fortunate that Labour is on the wane they offer disaffected liberals and the left an alternate home.

Similarly, the Maori Party is an expression of cultural identity rather than a meaningful political movement. They offer a simple logic: vote Maori because you are Maori. In any other western democracy, this would be categorised as racism. But it works and with MMP, Maori voters get a double benefit. They vote Maori at constituency level, and Labour as their party.

Which is why all this nonsense about the Maori Party playing the kingmaker role post-election is just that - nonsense. Should Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples snuggle up with National post-November 8 then they will share the same fate as those NZ First MPs who swept the Maori seats in 1996. Oblivion. That won't necessarily stop them ... parliament, power and position can addle the smartest strategist.

As for the other minor parties they possess a security NZ First do not. A constituency seat treated like a favourite grandma. United Future's Peter Dunne will hold Ohariu, the Progressive's Jim Anderton will keep Wigram and Act's Rodney Hide will continue to charm Epsom. None of these parties is expected to exceed 2 per cent meaning their influence will remain minimal. Nevertheless, Dunne and Hide are National's backstops should they miss their majority.

And so it's an election campaign that is almost meaningless. There should be neither major gaffes nor damaging revelations a la Don Brash and the Exclusive Brethren of three years ago. National has learned and Labour has thrown everything that it might have. The leaders' debates will be switch-over yawns.

Because this election is done and dusted despite National's underwhelming tax offer and a seriously stupid research and development policy. In four weeks, National will be gifted exactly what they received in 1990: the poisoned chalice of office with an economy in recession and no immediate prospect of recovery. Which raises the real question can John Key survive 2011? Ah, now that will be the real test of his leadership.

- © Fairfax NZ News