ACT's uses to National outweigh the irritations

CRAIG SIMCOX/The Dominion Post

ACT leader Rodney Hide.

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OPINION: Mark Twain once joked, after the premature publication of his own obituary, that reports of his death had been greatly exaggerated.

You cant help but feel the same way about the ACT Party, in spite of its blundering attempts at political harikari.

The Sunday papers this week sweated in a lather of anticipation: ACTs time had passed, one editorial proclaimed.

The columnists foamed at the mouth as they enthusiastically delivered the funeral rites.

ACT was declared to be the dustcart of the far Right, the apologist for big business, and was about to be tipped into the dustbin of history.

Another detected the sickly stench of death emanating from the cultists worshipping at the altar of Ayn Rand.

The soulless party of self-interest was said to be in its death throes.

This catharsis no doubt relieves the pressure on the chest of the political Left, but it overlooks the political realities  if ACT were not there it would need to be invented.

Its uses to National far outweigh its nuisance factor, at least while in Government. This was not always the case. When National was in Opposition, ACT was underhand and treacherous to its more moderate big brother, undermining in various ways former leaders Bill English and Don Brash.

This came after ACT hired a political strategist from Australia to analyse the scene here. He concluded that National had stolen many of ACTs votes and it needed to kick them loose.

National swallowed its annoyance at this, however, and tacitly handed ACT the blueribbon seat of Epsom.

There was no formal party edict on this, just nods and winks to a knowledgeable electorate.

National got the party votes in Epsom and ACT leader Rodney Hide got the electorate votes.

By this means National sacrificed one electorate MP to get five votes in Parliament from a reliable coalition partner. Thats not a bad seat multiplier tactic. (Though ACT got just 3.6 per cent of the total vote, the 5 per cent threshold did not apply as it won an electorate seat.)

After its recent inter-tribal warfare and its earlier imagetarnishing blunders, ACT is now reeling in the polls. An immediate election might see it reduced to as little as two seats. But there are other reasons why National will be in no hurry to pull the plug in Epsom.

Having a party out to the far Right allows National to portray itself as the moderate party of the centre Right.

Prime Minister John Key, with his feeling, caring, pragmatic policy approach, plays to this and as a consequence has drawn a much higher proportion of the womens vote than his National Party predecessors.

The approval meter probably ticks up a notch every time Mr Key publicly emphasises that he is not going to have ACT MP (and former Labour finance minister) Sir Roger Douglas in his Cabinet.

Mr Key is happy to burnish his image as Mr Moderate by playing to an electorate which has come to regard Sir Roger as a Right-wing ogre.

When it suits, National dismisses ACT policy proposals as too extreme, while at other times adopting or modifying policies it believes to be saleable, taking the credit, in the process, as the modifying influence.

Another good reason for National to continue to sponsor the ACT multiplier seat, even if the results are likely to be considerably reduced on the present five seats, is the potential re-emergence of Winston Peters.

The NZ First leader has been showing as high as 4.5 per cent in some polling at a time when he has had very little national publicity.

With the dog whistle policies he is likely to come up with during an election campaign, especially if he settles for a high-profile campaign in the Helensville seat, against Mr Key, or in Epsom, against Mr Hide, he stands a chance of crossing the 5 per cent threshold. Watch for additions he will propose to his pensioner gold card, such as utility discounts.

National will have to approach this reincarnation with kid gloves.

While they are riding high at the moment, a turnaround could see them need to entice Mr Peters into the coalition as well.

- © Fairfax NZ News