Low lakes threaten power supply

Extremely low hydro power lake storage is a significant concern, but a public electricity savings campaign will only be started if severe drought continues, Transpower says.

If there was no rain, a savings campaign would start this month, Transpower chief executive Patrick Strange said, "but we are likely to get some rain."

Already sky-high wholesale power prices, up to four times normal levels, showed an increasing fear of blackouts during the winter, Major Energy Users Group executive director Ralph Matthes said.

One energy consultant put the risk of 1992-type blackouts at 10 per cent to 30 per cent.

Hydro power lake levels are down to just 60 per cent of normal levels, slumping from 74 per cent a month ago.

The lakes are low because of severe drought, and recent rain had bought the industry only a little time.

"The lake levels are still much lower than we are comfortable with," Mr Strange said, speaking on behalf of the power generators.

There had been only a little rain in the past couple of days.

"What will bring spot prices down is rain."

Mr Matthes said the Government should set an example, but he was dismayed that Wellington City Council announced yesterday that it would light up a fountain at night for an extra two hours.

He also questioned lighting city trees at night.

"People are not getting the message [about saving power], unfortunately."

That might only hit home when water heating went cold, as power companies turned off people's cylinders by remote control.

"Government should make sure departments are vigilant about turning off lights and heaters," he said.

Even state-owned Meridian Energy's office on Wellington's waterfront was "lit up like a Christmas tree" at night, he said. Many central government offices and Parliament were floodlit at night this week.

If there was no rain, New Zealand would be in serious trouble by June or July, energy consultant Bryan Leyland said, and the Government should start calling for moderate savings first and more later if needed.

"Every bit of water we save now reduces the risk of blackouts," he said.

A reasonable target was to save about 10 per cent, by turning off lights, spending less time in the shower and so on.

All gas and coal-fired power stations were already running flat out, so if one big station failed in the next three months, it would mean trouble. That showed there was simply no generation in reserve, he said.

Power companies are now preparing a savings campaign that could be introduced quickly if needed, Transpower, the national grid operator, says.

During the power crisis in 2003, the public was encouraged to save 10 per cent.

Transpower is asking people to switch off appliances at the wall and turn off lights or heating not needed.

While lakes are low, wholesale or "spot" electricity prices are high, as much as four times normal levels, hitting $200 to $350 a unit at times yesterday.

"Prices are sending a strong signal that the market itself fears a risk of blackouts," Mr Matthes said.

High spot prices are likely to encourage large customers to cut back and power companies are talking to big customers about cutting power use even more if that is s needed, Mr Strange says.

- © Fairfax NZ News