Housing shortage forecast

The Press
Last updated 22:46 15/10/2008
DAVID HALLET/The Press
BUILDING CRISIS: Paul Williams on the site of a house he is building on Mount Pleasant. The drop in building consents in the face of a growing population is causing concern.

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Fears of a critical housing shortage have been raised as home building plunges.

With New Zealand's population rising while construction falls, a shortage of homes is expected by the second half of next year.

There are concerns the shortage could harm the economy and trigger another bubble in the housing market.

The number of consents issued by councils for new homes has dropped 42 per cent since mid-2007, reaching an eight-year low in August.

However, New Zealand still has more people arriving than leaving and more births than deaths, gaining 40,000 citizens in the past year, Statistics New Zealand figures show.

Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said a housing shortage was just a year away.

"We are going to be looking at a whole new debate about a housing shortage in late 2009," he said. "Construction is dropping like a stone."

He predicted the shortage of homes would be made worse as more migrants chose New Zealand to escape world financial turmoil.

He expected the fallout would copy the pattern of the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, with more arrivals and fewer departures six to 12 months later.

Lincoln University property professor Chris Eves said demand would build up as new housing stock dwindled, setting off the boom-and-bust cycle again.

"There's definitely going to be a shortage. It's a worrying sign for the future, and it's not just short term," he said.

"If we get into this rollercoaster of under-supply and over-supply again, it just makes the whole market volatile and we could have another bubble.

"What we really need now is a period of stability. These big peaks and troughs don't help anybody."

New Zealand's downturn in construction has followed the housing market slump that began midway through last year.

People have been less willing to build, with house values down about 6 per cent in Canterbury and the future of the market uncertain.

The credit crunch has made loans harder to get, with many banks now wanting a 20 per cent deposit on mortgages, and fewer developers are subdividing land.

Paul Williams arrived in Christchurch from Britain eight years ago and has a new house half-built in the hillside suburb of Mount Pleasant.

Williams said he was lucky to have funds from selling his previous home, otherwise he "would just be sitting tight now and waiting".

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"Everyone is just battening down the hatches. They are putting it off to see what happens with the election and with interest rates," he said.

Building while things were quiet was ideal for those who had the money, he said. "You can get some really good discounts, and we've had no trouble getting people on site when we need them."

Master Builders' Federation acting chief executive Chris Preston said home construction was already down by at least 25 per cent on a year ago, and dropping.

The industry was a lot quieter than a year ago, when some builders had their diaries full 12 months ahead, he said.

Preston was concerned that any lay-offs of apprentices now would mean a skill shortage when demand for new homes picked up again, making a housing shortage worse.

Several house-building companies in Canterbury have already gone to the wall this year as work dries up, while timber processor Carter Holt Harvey axed 300 jobs at North Island sawmills this week.

A report from global property consultant Rider Levett Bucknall has forecast house building in Christchurch to continue dropping in the next six months, with Wellington in a similar position and Auckland worse off.

The Government yesterday announced a new plan to allow low-income people to build houses on Crown land in a bid to improve housing affordability.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said Home Ownership on the Public Estate (Hope) would dramatically lower the cost of a home, with 1500 sites to be made available over four years.

The Hope scheme was similar to one proposed by National, but under National's policy the homeowner would eventually have the chance to buy the land.

 

30 comments
such is life   #30   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

This all seems a little off to me I have been trying to sell 4 properties at mortgage owing price plus agents fees for quite some time and yet I am still not getting interested buyers. I can not command rent to cover costs my rates are going up my values are going down and to add icing on the cake I have had tenants ruin my investments and skip without paying. This is the real travesty of todays environment. I appreciate what 20 something is saying but you have to take your chances take a risk and then tough it out. I stand to loose a lifetime of investment and will be happy if I walk away not owing anything, take the risks and reap the gains, if the market moves against you then you just have to accept it and move on. There is no real shortage of housing to buy there is just a shortage of people willing to take the risk and secure their future.

dolly   #29   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

People who own more then one home should be helping the families in nz to get thier own first home buying alot of propertys isnt hard work especially since it was all done by gaining equity over time. Student five is right about the greed although people of one generation are not at fault for that what they are at fualt for is not standing up for good values and oposing the rubbish that thier children are now faced with. The greed that has come into this country is unbelieveble it seems to me that we are all slaves to a govt and system that only serves a small few rich people in this country while the rest of us fight amongst ourselves nz is huge and only 5 million japan is the same wize and fits 200 million if the gov wanted us all to have a home and a nice yard it could instead it wants to cramp us into as small areas as possible like sheep yet we complain about the life chickens get or pigs being cramped up what about the children. 30 or more students to a class if a teacher allocated there time to each student in a 1 hour period your child only recieves 2 mins put that over the 6 hours spent at school they gain a total of 10 mins of personal teaching time no wonder kids have to waste all tehre time at home doing homework instead of helping out with the chores and this is done to get them ready to go to uni to serve a corrupt system I think we need to choose a gov that isnt labour or national to see some real changes in this country stop fighting the young generations and support them by fighting this corruption that makes everyone think they have to vote blue or red we are usa just with a different name.

Adam   #28   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Student,

"I was told I would be a success" - If you believed this just becuase someone told you it was so, you have some issues

"I was told I would earn more money than others my age who didn't go to university. I am yet to see this" - mabye you shouldn't have done an arts degree?

These days if you want a house i really think you need to be in a relationship with a working partner. On a combined income of $80000 (assuming you both went to uni) you should be able to pay off a $300000 house in around 7 years.

If you live alone, have kids or are the sole income earner buying a house seems pretty difficult.

Den   #27   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Oh Anna, how misguided you are. If Labour had to rely on the Nats for ideas there would be bu~~er all happening

Den   #26   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Oh dear, how sad, my heart bleeds for you, or it would if I actually had one. Try working a bit harder and try saving. That's what we had to do

Hopeful_future_home_owner   #25   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Housing shortage? According to WHO - people who want to build/sell more houses/property? I'm guessing all those VACANT apartments and rental properties aren't included as part of available residential accomodation statistics somehow. Much like how unemployment stats exclude people who CHOOSE not to work? (I CHOOSE NOT to get the house/apartment that is available, so therefore there isnt any supply?!?!) One just ASSUMED that the reason housing/apartment developers were going kaput due to the fact that there was no demand for their current complete/incomplete developments - am I wrong here? And this being a significant driver in the current financial strife the world is in... Housing shortage?

Edmund   #24   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

I think a bit of myth making is going on here. What evidence, not opinion, does the writer or the experts quoted have to support the theory put forward. A couple of days ago Stuff ran an article which in part said "New Zealand is among 13 nations named by BusinessWeek as most at risk from the global financial crisis." What evidence that people will be returning to NZ or migrating to NZ as the world heads into a recession. NZ is more like Iceland than the USA, indeed an IMF report compared Iceland to NZ and Aussie with regard to our trade deficits (and we know where Iceland is at the moment). I suspect NZ will be hit hard by the coming world recession and not recover until much of the developed world has already started to grow again. NZ is a one horse town (sorry country) with a very narrow economy based largely on agriculture and I'm afraid no amount of feel good stories published in the media is going to change that. NZer's are deluded to believe that the number 8 wire mentality that has done us well in the past (30 years ago) will do us well in the future. Our "she'll be right" attitude is more a hindrance than a blessing. It implies complacency and laziness yet we consider it a virtue. Myth making is another "feel good" practice which hides a more realistic assessment of the world.

Sue   #23   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Dear Student_still, You're situation is not as new as you may think. Whilst house prices may have been relatively cheaper in proportion to salaries in the 80's, interest rates rose above 20% on mortgages, then prices slumped and anyone who had to sell lost out in all ways. Then of course there was the share market crash, high unemployment, and many had to leave the country to try to reach that financial security for their retirement. I can sympathise with being stuck in the middle, when our children were little, there was no family support, we didn't qualify for the community services card, yet had all the expenses of trying to buy a home whilst raising our kids independently. Has no one questioned what impact this "influx of migrants" is having on the local population? If large numbers of migrants arrive, bearing their stronger currency, of course that is going to put pressure on housing prices and infrastructure. New Zealand has long been seen as a bargain compared to what is available overseas, wake up kiwis and protect your assets for future generations!

R Hunt   #22   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Builders/Councils listen: there are too many BIG houses being built whilst families are getting smaller. And many single people or couples still would like to live in a house rather than flat but there is a lack of small dwellings and mixed size neighbourhoods partially due to councils stipulating new builds to be of a certain (usually high)value. A big house costs much more to maintain in the long run.

Guzziman   #21   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Why has the government not put a halt on immigration ? the last thing we need is more jobless from any other country as we head into recession, we have built houses for the invisible for the last 2 years so there is no shortage. Unemployment is set to double in the next year !


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