The screws go on Key
The screws are really going on John Key this week. He's facing pressure on several fronts and how he handles it all will be a good test of whether he's a short- or long-term prime minister.
The media, rightly, have focused on the dilemma he faces over the Maori seats for the Super City.
Key's choices are limited but, in naked political terms (let's forget principle) they are perfectly clear:
1. If he lets an amendment to the bill go through giving Maori seats on the Super City Council, he loses Rodney Hide as a minister but Act remain supporting National as government.
2. If he rejects Maori seats the Maori Party are angry but its co-leaders will probably remain as ministers and the party will continue to support National.
Option 1 is obviously preferable: Hide stays and National's own anti-Maori-seat policy stance is not contravened.
Don't forget National has a big carrot to keep the Maori Party on side, the abolition of the Foreshore and Seabed Act (which was the raison d'etre for the Maori Party in the first place).
If Key pushes on with the bill as it stands, with no Maori seats, he is unlikely to lose many (if any) Pakeha votes and he will be seen as "resolute" - "The bloke's not for turning", to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher.
If he relents, Pakeha votes will be lost, he will be seen as "weak" and the critics will then talk about the Maori Party "tail wagging the dog".
For Key the call has to be a no-brainer, although probably one he would prefer not to have been wedged into having to make.
Let events slowly take their course and do nothing rash seems to be his rationale.
I suspect he will be tempted to clip Tau Henare around the ear, the anti-smacking laws notwithstanding.
Henare is behaving childishly, attacking Rodney Hide - calling him a "buffoon" - and calling for Pita Sharples to resign as Maori Affairs minister.
For a National MP, no matter how minor, to be exacerbating the problem and winding things up is just dumb. Whatever happened to the party's whips?
Situations like the one the Government faces on this issue call for cool heads. Sadly Henare's is as hot as it gets and the skull just as thick.
Then there is the mess over the new National Party president, Peter Goodfellow, and calls for his resignation.
Goodfellow has referred to the end of his marriage as probably lying behind the speculation, saying, "I don't think there is anything in my personal life that affects my ability to be president."
John Key publicly declared his full confidence in Goodfellow as president.
This is probably the only course of action Key could take in the circumstances but, after having to deal with the Richard Worth debacle, the immigration problems surrounding list MP Kanawljit Singh Bakshi, and the Bill English housing fiasco, he must be asking himself, what next?
Key's taken the heat out of the smacking debate: having vented its spleen in the referendum, the public don't seem to be up in arms over his proposed compromise, which entails a wonderfully time-consuming review by government agencies of how hard a smack should be.
On the folic acid argument he's delaying again with a three-year deferral of any moves to stick it in our bread.
Key would have enjoyed the NZ-Aussie rugby test on Saturday. Not because we won but because the ABs often used the strategy he prefers.
On so many issues Key tends to favour a long-ranging kick for touch and chew up the time while waiting for a lucky break.
It may be a dull strategy but it beats hell out of trying to run the ball off your own goal line.
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Key Offers the 'Status Quo' we had before the referendum. His word and assurances that themselves contradict the Law.
They new safeguards and assurances that are the same as we had before, may last for his term but he must think the huge majority of people out there are idiots to think this law won't be used in as mischevious a manner as it was forced upon the majority by the inversely proportional representative parliament we have. Theoretically this is an impossible law in a democracy. A Law that so many hate for its illegitimate formation and the illegitimisation it inflicts on parents.
And it would be impossible in a Democracy. We don't have one! We have an Ideocracy. Where ideology of a few unbalanced reactionaries dominate the masses and reason.
NZ is stuffed if they don't demonstrate that Key can not after getting conclusive confirmation of what the Nation already knew and not remove a law that is DOING NOTHING to change the violence problem and simply undermining a culture of respect for authority for a culture of Do As you Will! Key Defies the people for Who Knows What reason?
The Law harms the reasonable and emboldens the defiant. It's Killing his credibility for nothing!
The answer for Maori representation on the Auckland SuperCity governance seems fairly clear...
* Guaranteed representation from local iwi on various council committees for a limited number of terms (say, the next five)
* No Maori seats in the first term
* A referendum on Maori seats amongst the Auckland ratepayers alongside the 2010 local body elections - if voted for they are implemented from the next election in 2014. (Possibly with some dedicated funding for local iwi to ude to promote their position)
The benefits are...
* ACT can hardly complain if the ratepayers of Auckland vote for the seats.
* The decision on the future of Maori seats in Auckland is out of central government hands and where it should be - with ratepayers.
* Politically, National can distance themselves from the final decision.
* Maori get representation on the new council at the working committee level and the possibility of Maori seats in the future if they can convince local ratepayers (which I don't think will be too hard to do).
An alternative would be to start with Maori seats and have the referendum - but this may be too hard for ACT to swallow and probably doesn't distance National far enough from any potential political fallout.
How bloody pathetic. We elected a new regime on the back of a "change" which National promissed. What we really got was a PM who can't take a stand on anything, and actually encourages more bureaucracy than Aunty Helen by his neediness for public opinion poll ratings. Take a stand you pussy. Rodney should go anyway, this just reinforces that ACT are loose cannons!!
This does, accurately portray John Key's clever use of delay tactics as a 'kick for touch'...nice football comparison - let's reset and worry about it after we win the lineout....or next election. National are in fact relying on being able to deflect issues till after the next election. John Key's ability to smile openly and kiss babies better than anyone else, is a big asset. And the 'powers that be' figure they can then sell the country off big-time. Currently it is just being primed for asset sales. It ought to be worrying that Democracy now has little power or value. Both main parties, and others, are just leading us towards one-world corporate socialism where we don't own the country ( or much of it ) have been strangled by a world carbon credit control system and old social structures are gone - replaced by PC social engineering and enforced by police. The public just voted overwhelmingly against that and Key continues to do virtually nothing, but talk his way out of it with promises and delays, and lies. It IS now a 'violent crime' to smack, or even restrain, a child. Key's real ability was as a smart money-trader, brokering deals and getting compromises to keep people happy. Now he's doing it in politics and so creating huge problems up the road. Especially on the foolish decision to partner with the Maori Separatist Party.....an ongoing minefield. They don't even represent mainstream Maori. Most national voters will be against that, and the Emissions scheme..... and the Bradford bill. In fact, most of the country is against it. I can assure you, as one of those getting signatures that people understood the question and issue perfectly well. A smack was illegal - therefore the law was wrong and unsafe. The people are not satisfied at all by Key's pledge to keep thinking about it. This just moves the noose a little further away from their necks. But it's still there.
I always felt the the trio of Act, National, and the Maori party were somewhat strange bedfellows given National election victory vote peercentage last year ; I would not be too suprised if National achieved some progress with amending the Foreshore and Seabed legislation to placate the Maori Party. But National has to be careful here the Maori vote (like the rest of the electorate I would imagine) is not that entrenched anymore and can jump ship fairly quickly if their needs are not been met we only have to look back on how quickly NZ First lost the Naori support in 1999 after gaining the Maori seats in 1996 so National has a real balancing situation - and lets not forget as well that Act has only 1.5% of support accoeding to the latest Colmar Poll so Hide bleating abount resigning seems a wee bit over the top - National will not want a party with such a small mandate from the electorate wagging the government dog so to speak
Wayne McIndoe, I think your rationale is somewhat flawed on four counts. First, ACT has always polled poorly but elected well. They got a damned site more than 1.5% in the only poll which counts. Second, if my memory is correct, the Maori Party is not doing much better than ACT in current polls. Third, you overlook the fact that there is an extremely warm and cordial relationship between the leaders of the three parties. Fourth, there are many things on the MP shopping list other than the repeal of the Foreskins and Seaweed Act. It is these goodies they really are after. The ones which will wean their people off welfare dependency and subservience to the gummint for its handouts. FS & SB has served its purpose. It got them where they are. There are bigger fish to fry and they know National is a better frying pan than Labour.
Having said all these things, you are correct to assert that my beloved Gnats have to work hard to maintain that relationship. For John Key, it must be like having to keep two nubile wives happy simultaneously.
BTW I take some pride in being one the first if not the very first commentator to predict the raprochement between National, ACT and Maori Party.
Lets not forget that the Maori Party only exists because of race based seats.
They polled 2.39% of the vote in 2008 but got 5 seats all reserved for Maori. ACT had to get more than half as many votes again at 3.65% of the vote to get their 5 seats.
I suspect eventually the tide will turn and Maori will vote Labour again. The Maori vote has always been soft centre-left and probably always will be.
Therefore a "long term" strategy with Maori seems probably more flawed for National than it is for National with ACT.
On the issue of separate Maori seats in 2nd tier governing - let the Auckland (not Wellington) voters decide by referendum when they next line up to vote.
May at least get Maori to participate where they don't seem to bother to get to much - the polls.
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A little precision please, Paul
"Sadly Henare's is as hot as it gets and the skull just as thick".....i am not sure about the 'hot as it gets bit' but he sure is as thick as a brick....