Businesses are always keen to talk up their prospects and bad news, if there is any, tends to be coated for public consumption in a healthy pile of sugar.
Or at least something to disguise the taste.
But should listed companies with their many public shareholders be more blunt, call a spade a spade, spit it out?
Let me know what you think of this situation.
Heartland New Zealand, a "non bank deposit taker" with aspirations to be a bank, has been working hard to build up a solid business from the merger of two finance companies - Marac and PGG Wrightson Finance - and two building societies - CBS and Southern Cross.
Late on Monday it released a profit forecast saying net profit for the year to June 2012 would be $20-$22 million.
That's not a big change on its previous forecast of $20-$24m, so maybe investors wouldn't be too concerned.
Except that it is, and it seems they were.
The nagging detail professional investors spotted involved a one-off tax benefit of $5-$6m.
On August 2, Heartland forecast 2012 profit at $20-$24m.
On August 18, it announced that a law change had produced a one-off deferred tax benefit for the 2012 year of $5-$6m.
"HNZ has previously forecast npat of between $20m and $24m for the 2012 financial year, assuming the acquisition of PGW Finance," it said. "This [tax] credit will have a positive impact on that forecast."
This meant, by implication, that the 2012 profit could now be in the range of $25m-$30m, although it was not stated.
Fast forward to this week, and the tax credit has been factored in to the new forecast. Describing the various factors affecting its new forecast, Heartland said "the impact on earnings [of those factors] has been offset by the previously announced one-off deferred tax benefit of $6m..."
So rather than a modest paring of up to 8 per cent, the new forecast actually amounts to a drop of 23-27 per cent in forecast profit.
While Heartland has released enough information to work that out, my guess is no-one reading Monday's profit forecast on its own would be remotely aware such a radical profit warning was being made.
Certainly there was no mention of how much the new forecast differed from the previous number.
Does that matter?
Heartland CEO Jeff Greenslade says all the information was available to investors.
"We've given everybody all the facts," he says. "There's a balance between IFRS [accounting standards] and working really hard to try and create a clear picture that most people have been able to get their heads around."
"Is the underlying performance ... less than we forecast? The answer is yes. I don't think any of the market commentators have done anything other than pick that up."
Greenslade is probably justified in saying the market understood the implications of the announcement. By late afternoon today, Heartland shares had eased 1c on relatively high volume of $445,000.
But if the announcement was to inform the market of a drop in forecast profit of up to 27 per cent, should it not have just said so?
- © Fairfax NZ News
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It's not a great start to be fudging announcements of this nature. Their responsibility surely goes beyond the needs of "market commentators"? I wonder what the NZX makes of this jiggery pokery. Plain English in future please, Mr Irvine and Co.
I think I agree with the Company. All the information was presented and the negative factors listed alongside the "one-off" offset described as such. What is the problem with that?
The forecast made on August 2 pretty much stands. The statement on August 18 states: "The extent to which HNZ will revise the forecast NPAT range by virtue of this credit will be determined at that time" [in the next forecast after the end of Sept and review of quarterly results].
Given current worldwide circumstances, any forecast 12 months out has great uncertainty.
Also agree with the company and Alan #3. I think they went above and beyond in fact. It's the company's responsibility to provide a true and fair view of the company. Not spoon feed investors. If people can't read a P&L (or pay someone to read it for them) they shouldn't be investing.
Thanks for your comments - an interesting balance of responses. Personally I'd favour investing in a company that compares like with like and doesn't try to obscure its financials, particularly one aspiring to be a bank.
I also like to see Companies adopt a clear and unequivocal communication standard so I differ from 3 & 4. Tim I agree with your assesment because who can advise me what resulted in the substantial drop if on the face of it a minimal drop has occurred? I actually believe it to be misleading because as you say the pairing had a contingency of 8% which was the advised statement and the forecast confirms that expectation. Lets not forget these forecasts are to attract investor attention and interaction. I believe it borders on deliberate. It is not good governance in my view.
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