Housing confidence tarnished

SENTIMENT: Confidence in the property remains upbear, but has been slightly tarnished.

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Housing confidence is still upbeat even if it’s somewhat tarnished, according to ASB economists.

A net 37 per cent of respondents to the ASB Housing Confidence survey agreed it was a good time to buy a house in the three months ended January 31, compared to a net 48 per cent in the three months through October. Some 50 per cent were positive, compared to 59 per cent in the previous period, and 13 per cent were negative compared to 11 per cent.

“Respondents are firmly optimistic on now being a good time to buy,” said chief economist Nick Tuffley in his report. “However, that optimism has moderated from the past two quarters’ exuberance.” 

The property market was “patchy” in January according to state-owned valuer QV Valuations, and economists have talked down the revival in housing with weak sales volumes and low number of mortgage approvals hinting rising prices were off the back of a small turnover of houses.

The volume of sales fell below 4,000 for just the second month in 20 years, with the other time being January 2009, according to Real Estate Institute data.

A net 48 per cent of respondents to the ASB survey expect house prices to increase in the coming year, compared to 40 per cent in October, led by expectations for Auckland house prices.

The national median price rose 7.7 per cent to $350,000 in January from the same month a year earlier, according to REINZ, though it was down 10 per cent from December.  The survey found a net 51 per cent of respondents expect interest rates, up from a net 35 per cent in the October survey.

Tuffley said “greater consciousness of higher interest rates in the future may be partly behind the moderation in optimism towards housing” with the central bank reaffirming several times its commitment to begin hiking rates in the middle of the year. 

Rising unemployment and a softening housing market have given central bank Governor Alan Bollard breathing space to keep the official cash rate lower for longer, and the market pushed out its timeline for rate hikes in New Zealand.

Investors have priced in 157 basis points of hikes to the OCR in the coming 12 months, according to the Overnight Index Swap curve.

- BusinessDesk