Traders on iPredict appear to believe the sale of Mighty River Power will be delayed until at least next year.
The official line from the Government is that it will sell up to 49 per cent of Mighty River Power by the end September ''subject to market conditions''.
However contracts launched by iPredict last week suggest there is just a 10 per cent chance that 100 million shares in Mighty River will be privatised by the end of September, and only a 32.5 per cent chance that those shares will be sold by the end of December.
Yesterday Prime Minister John Key acknowledged that the Maori Council's claim to the Waitangi Tribunal could potentially delay the sale if the matter goes to court.
Today iPredict launched stocks on whether Mighty River would be sold during 2013, with early trading giving a 73 per cent probability that the company would be partially privatised by the end of next year.
Mathew Hooton, whose PR lobby company Exceltium administers iPredict said: ''The Prime Minister's commented yesterday that the water issue might delay the sale and it looks like the market's taken that into account.''