NZ growth set to moderate: Truckometer

MICHAEL FOREMAN
Last updated 12:41 16/01/2014

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Heavy traffic volumes rose faster than light traffic in December, suggesting "reasonable glide path-style momentum across the economy", according to ANZ's latest Truckometer.

The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.4 per cent in December, almost reversing a fall in November, with flows increasing on seven of the 11 roads monitored.

Heavy traffic includes vehicles weighing more than 3.5 tonnes. The index tends to move at the same time as shifts in total economic growth.

The light vehicle index rose 0.2 per cent in December after a 1.1 per cent fall in November.

Light traffic includes cars and vans, and tends to give a six-month lead on GDP growth.

ANZ said the upward trend in this index had become a little less steep, suggesting slower growth in the first half of 2014 than the second half of last year.

"We can see signs of economic moderation in the trends for both indexes, which we consider unsurprising," ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said.

"Turbocharged growth in the third quarter of 2013 was always unlikely to be repeated," Bagrie said.

"Consolidation invariably follows surges. Nonetheless, the ANZ Truckometer continues to flag reasonable glide path-style momentum across the economy."

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- © Fairfax NZ News

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