Why rates aren’t tumbling

BY TONY ALEXANDER
Last updated 05:00 13/05/2009
FAIRFAX ILLUSTRATION
KEEN INTEREST: It now costs banks far more to borrow money than in the past because of the huge losses racked up by the Northern Hemisphere banks.

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OPINION: Many people will be wondering why it is that the Reserve Bank can cut its official cash rate 0.5 percent yet banks only cut their interest rates by tiny amounts.

In fact the only cuts registered have been for the likes of six month fixed rates with no major bank cutting floating rates.

There are two reasons.

The first is the thing that many months ago rendered continual cuts in interest rates overseas useless.

It now costs us banks far more to borrow money than in the past because of the huge losses racked up by the Northern Hemisphere banks.

This means for instance, as we have noted many times before, whereas we used to pay a premium to offshore investors about 0.1 percent above the bank bill yields and swap rates you might see, now we pay premiums near 2.5 percent.

This means that as old funding rolls off it gets replaced with much more expensive money.

If at the same time as this old money is rolling over the central bank cuts its cash rate the cost to a bank of funding its lending may not go down.

This is why in the United States, even though the Fed has cut its cash rate 5.25 percent, mortgage interest rates have only fallen 1.0 percent to 1.5 percent.

This first factor helps explain why floating rates aren’t falling now and a large gap exists between swap rates and fixed lending rates.

The second factor is the improving outlook for world growth stemming from the green shoots appearing both overseas and offshore.

As the world growth outlook becomes less bad investors move funds into shares.

Where does the money come from? Cash and fixed interest investments.

This means fewer funds available to borrow, which pushes up wholesale interest rates.

In addition, as people now speak about world growth resuming from late this year expectations are building of central banks removing low interest rates from some point in late-2010.

This means investors lending to a borrower at a fixed rate must allow for the lost opportunity created by short term rates rising during the term of their loan.

So they lift what they need to get before lending to the likes of ourselves.

An analogy to describe this is the following: Imagine you are flying a kite on a sloping ground. You are the official cash rate, the kite is a 15 year fixed rate, and the string represents longer and longer terms to maturity of fixed rate loans. If the Reserve Bank cuts the cash rate you walk down the hill and all interest rates fall. But if at the same time you walk down the hill the wind behind you picks up then the kite can settle higher than it was before the official rate cut. These winds represent the outlook for growth, borrower demand, and investor supply.

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And so it is that since our central bank cut its cash rate 0.5 percent the ten year swap rate upon which premiums get applied to derive the cost of funds to us banks has risen – that’s right gone up – 0.5 percent.

The five year rate is up 0.3 percent, two year 0.25 percent, and one year 0.15 percent.

Only the person flying the kite is at a lower rate and the fixed rates closest to that rate – out to about six months at most.

Where are things going now?

Our monthly BNZ Confidence Survey has just revealed an equal record level of business sentiment not seen since the early part of September last year.

The green shoots are multiplying both here and offshore.

This easily explains why the NZD has risen back above US60 cents and why fixed home and business lending rates face a greater risk of rising than falling over the coming month or two.

Hence our stark comment in my Weekly Overview of March 19 to – back then – fix now.

I would make the same comment again even though these fixed rates are higher.

Would I float? Hardly – the rate is 1.0 percent above the one year fixed rate.

I would either fix one year if I otherwise would float, or three years now if my plan is to fix.

*Tony Alexander is BNZ's chief economist.

Post your comment below. 

- © Fairfax NZ News

46 comments
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Tony   #46   02:31 pm Jun 11 2009

Everyone has got to be kidding me. Now is the perfect time to buy. It's bee a long time since rates have ever been this low, with houses still producing great rental return. If your a keen investor and you look properly, there are some great deals out and about that are almost if not positively geared.

In BNZ's defence, I have banked with them for many years, and they have never let me down. The bank's haven't dealt everyone a cruel hand, it's the economy!

deaneb   #45   11:04 am May 19 2009

And yet the banks are making increased profits - the buggers are creaming us all!

Truck   #44   11:37 am May 18 2009

Concerned Reader - Tony is right and you obviously were asleep during your Interest Rates lecture.

A "Percentage Point" is the equivalent of 0.01%.

If, as you say, the Fed had cut its rate by 5.25 percentage points, they would have cut rates by 0.0525%...which is obviously wrong.

Rimu   #43   09:36 am May 14 2009

"It now costs us banks far more to borrow money than in the past because of the huge losses racked up by the Northern Hemisphere banks."

Why does it cost them more to borrow, they can get it from the reserve bank at 0.5% interest. Isn't that the point of a reserve bank?

Maybe I'm missing something...

Concerned Reader   #42   08:20 am May 14 2009

"*Tony Alexander is BNZ's chief economist."

And yet Tony Alexander doesn't distinguish between a percent cut and percentage points cut.

E.g. "This is why in the United States, even though the Fed has cut its cash rate 5.25 percent, mortgage interest rates have only fallen 1.0 percent to 1.5 percent."

WRONG. 5.25 percentage points. And 1 to 1.5 percentage points. This is completely different to a cut of 5.25% (and 1 to 1.5%). One is huge, the other tiny.

Queenstown Mortgagee   #41   09:16 pm May 13 2009

1. This BNZ suggestion to lock in fixed is diametrically opposed to that of Westpac Bank who have been suggesting floating rates in their weekly commentary for the last four months. Who should one beleive ?

2.Clearly, since Rob Muldoons days we have become part of a world financial economy. Presumably, our (Australian owned) banks compete with other banks from USA and UK to borrow funds on the world stage.

US 15-year retail fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.51 percent in the latest week. One-year adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, rose to an average of 4.78 percent from 4.77 percent last week. Source : CNN.com

UK fixed rates seem to vary from 2.5% up to 4.5%. Variable from 3.5 to 4.5%; much lower than ours. However their bank rate is 0.5% so perhaps they work from the same text book as our guys.

I wish someone would explain where Mr Bollards responsibilities and influence stops and Mr Key or Mr English's starts on this one ?

David   #40   05:32 pm May 13 2009

"As the world growth outlook becomes less bad investors move funds into shares.

Where does the money come from? Cash and fixed interest investments.

This means fewer funds available to borrow, which pushes up wholesale interest rates"

Tony, there is no actual money in the share market. Apart from initial offerings and the like, when someone buys shares that money goes to the seller - it has now left the market.

This talk of a mountain of cash on the sidelines is complete nonsense.

Cheers, David.

Lou   #39   04:59 pm May 13 2009

When you are part of a cartel that controls a monopoly why would you reduce rates?

PiggyBank   #38   03:32 pm May 13 2009

We're halfway to saving to buy a house freehold because the banking situation in New Zealand has become so pathetic, just like the property market.

We'd rather not have the stress of worrying about what the banks are scheming here because its all decided in Australia.

And we know that despite all the media hype property here won't be a sound investment again until 2013, which suits our savings plan perfectly.

Anyone with half a brain knows there won't "any kind" of recovery here until the US is back on its feet again. So for the wise, pay off all your debt and start saving... make the banks work for their money instead of being a slave to their mood swings.

MM   #37   02:59 pm May 13 2009

The article is fundamentaly correct as are some of the comments, however the underlying drivers of the profits for most of the banks/finance institutions perhaps aren't as well understood as they should be. If you were to look at recent results of banks and ascertain how they are brought about you will tend to see that as a general rule the retail side of a bank is running at/or about $0 or a loss while their trading division's are the ones making the profits by way of margin trading, currency etc. The cost of wholesale funding for banks and the similar has increased significantly resulting in the inability to pass on the OCR cuts fully. This is mostly due to the amount of money borrowed from offshore to fund NZer's appetite for debt. If banks simply lent out money that they took in then it would potentially be a different story. This unfortunately may get worse before better as well if NZ's credit rating is reduced as some fear. It would then mean that bank's will pay more again for their wholesale funding lines resulting in increases to the customer. Simple solution is stop borrowing so much, NZer's invest in NZ to enable banks to not require offshore funding lines and allow a balance back in the market.


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