Actually, Paul McDonald, one of my MBA lecturers did suggest that "All ships rise with the tide" before talking about the impacts the wider economy have on individual organisations performance. It was a little more interesting than that (he threw in a bit of Shakespear) but you get the idea.

CORRECTION

"This is not the result of decades of credit/debt expansion at several times the real growth rate in the economy"

Should be "Is this not..........?"

David.

Thanks for the forecast Tony although what I'm seeing is a pretty massive stock of "shadow inventory" - folk holding off selling into what is perceived as a weak market. This will tend to hold house prices low/lower for the foreseeable future aided by high unemployment, household debt reduction and weak exports. I would love to hear your comments as an economist on the Macro economic picture. How have we allowed our money to loose 90% of it's value over the past 40 years? How come total credit market debt is now at a totally unsustainable level? How will borrowing money to pay exsisting debt help. Where's this going, what's the endgame?

This is not the result of decades of credit/debt expansion at several times the real growth rate in the economy. This is what comes of unrestrained debt/money issue by the trading banks.

Steve Keen:

"The complex issue being buried by this latest analogy is “what caused the crisis in the first place?” The answer, as I’ve been arguing for years now, is that a debt-financed speculative bubble generated illusory wealth as it grew, but its collapse has now left us with a mountain of private sector debt.

Now that the Ponzi folly of leveraged speculation on asset prices is over, debt has stopped growing and the contribution that growing debt made to demand has disappeared. That alone is enough to cause a crisis: in the USA in 2006-07, private debt grew by $4 trillion, boosting aggregate demand in that $14 trillion economy by over 20 per cent". http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

How about it Tony, a no BS blog on the macro situation. Cheers, David

I love to read the feedback that comes in anytime an economist relays an opinion. Economists views have to be kept in perspective folks - ask 10 economists for an pinion of the state of the economy and you will get 10 completely different answers - they are Astrologers with a degree after their names (No offence to astrologers, I read them every day and get a lot from it!).

Here's the thing - macro economics is fluid, and to be able to predict where things will be in 12 months time you would have to forecast every bit of government policy that is going to be initiated by all our international trading partners as well as policies of governments who trade with our trading partners. Add in to that our govt's policies, immigration trends, Acts of G_D, super power foreign policy, it goes on and on. Some factors do have more weight when it comes to altering supply and demand in housing, immigration being one of them. But overall - you would probably get a better understanding by monitoring twitter.

"I have 3 kids, I am married, we both have student loans and we currently own two properties, we are providing for our future so the state doesn't need to. Get off that ridiculous high horse"

Are you getting WFF benefit LaLa? bet your are! Living off the backs of others! get off your own high horse.

justice and happy renter if owning more than one house is the mother of all evils then where should everyone live? can a student at uni afford a morgage even if prices were 150,000$ cheaper in Auckland?

or are you counting on the crown to supply that two. How about people on 12.50$ per hour? can they make the repayments? I am happy to see so many Kiwi's who own more than one house. If prices were too cheap then every person overseas with afew coins to rub together will buy up NZ even more leaving nothing for the people on here that are happy to cut down any one who casts a shadow.

Good luck to those of you saving to buy in 5 years time. I hope for you that prices do fall. I can recall many of my friends following a similar tactic.

I totally agree with Kevin #44. Nobody seems to take into account that NZ houses are of appalling quality compared to the rest of the developed world. If I was to buy a house now, with a normal mortgage term of 20-25 years, chances are the house will slowly kill me (asthma, lung infections, arthritis, colds and flu) or it will simply rot to the ground before I manage to pay off the mortgage. Unless I spend another fortune on constant maintenance. I'd rather spend my money on a quality house in Europe when I decide to retire.

@Jagilby - Great post @Deb - Good job proving you dont need to be smart to own three houses .

You are dreaming if you think the housing market is in the recovery phase. Property is going to get cheaper from her before moving higher. There's nothing wrong with owning 3 or 30 properties. Puffing out your chest in a strident manner while ripping on those who have yet to buy any property can however result in a karmic train-wreck.

@Dave #13...nice work.

"What will drop in value is the crap that people are asking to much for (and paid too much for in the first place)."

Ah, that's 80% of the market not all D&G! Hence, the boom/credit blow out! As the years go by (as we are seeing)there will be the "catch up with reality" price. I wait for that thanks with my savings and no need for a bank mortgage.