Poll-axed

National's lead biggest since Labour took office

HELEN CLARK The prime minister's position in Labour appears to be secure for now, with little appetite to remove her before the election.

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Labour's support and Helen Clark's popularity have plummeted in a poll out today.

National has raced to 55 per cent support in the Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll, opening a 23-point lead over Labour.

It is the biggest lead National has held since Labour has been in government.

But the sharp drop in Miss Clark's popularity may be the bigger worry for Labour, which has always believed her personal ratings would help it to close the gap.

The plunge in her support is likely to spark speculation of a leadership coup. Leftwing commentator Chris Trotter has told The Dominion Post a change to Trade Minister Phil Goff may be Labour's only hope of regaining ground among struggling families.

The Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll shows National leader Mr Key is on 44 per cent support in the preferred prime minister ranking against 29 per cent for Miss Clark. That represents a major reversal of fortune from the previous poll in November, when Miss Clark held a slim lead.

Soundings of key players on the left and right of Labour suggest, however, that bad polls will not change the party's determination to stick with Miss Clark at least till the election.

"We learned when we replaced David Lange with Geoffrey Palmer that it doesn't work. Even those who wanted Lange to go realised it was a mistake," one senior MP on the left said.

Even those in the right wing of Labour say it would take an election defeat before there would be the numbers to roll Miss Clark.

"Helen has her friends in the right places. She has solid support on the inside of the party," one MP on the right said.

Another party source said the polls would have to be "barking bad" before a change would even be talked about.

"I don't know who ... would initiate that because there's just no evidence of it. No one is hawking Phil's name around."

He did not rule out, however, that the "chattering classes in the wider party might be mulling over that option".

One in four of National's support base have switched to the party this year. That suggests Mr Key easily won the early election year jousting - at Waitangi, over boot camps for young offenders in his state of the nation speech, and at the opening of Parliament.

The poll was taken between February 13 and 19 and may have picked up the early fallout from the furore over Owen Glenn's donations.

Of the minor parties, only the Greens on 6 per cent topped the MMP threshold for parties to qualify for seats without an electorate.

There was little change in support for the other small players, with NZ First on 3 per cent, the Maori Party on 2 per cent, ACT on 1 per cent and UnitedFuture and the Progressives on 0 per cent.

If the poll was reflected in an election-night result, assuming the leaders of ACT, UnitedFuture and the Progressive Party held their seats and the Maori Party retained its four seats, then National would be able to govern alone with 69 seats in the 123-seat House. Labour would be reduced to 40 seats.

The telephone poll of 1088 has a margin of error of 3 per cent.