Nats survive loose lips

National 54% Labour 35%

The Dominion Post

Last updated 23:03 15/08/2008

Fairfax Media

National confirmed yesterday that it would ditch Labour's plan to ban new base-load gas-fired power stations for 10 years, which National said put the security of supply at risk.

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Labour has just weeks to turn around a likely election rout before Prime Minister Helen Clark names the day she goes to the polls.

Today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll has National shrugging off one of its worst weeks under John Key to maintain a seemingly unassailable lead - up three percentage points to 54 per cent support, compared with Labour, which is steady on 35. The rise is even more marked for Mr Key. His popularity as preferred prime minister is up four points to 43, with Miss Clark on 31.

The result is a blow to Labour's hopes that a mini recovery in last month's poll signalled the start of a fightback before an election date must be named.

Equally alarmingly for the Government, the lift in National's support comes despite unguarded comments by National MPs to a cocktail party saboteur who leaked recordings of deputy leader Bill English's suggestion that state-owned Kiwibank might be sold "eventually". His apparent undermining of Mr Key sparked Labour warnings that National had a hidden agenda. But voters appear to have taken those warnings with a grain of salt, and marked the affair down as loose talk, rather than a signal of sinister intentions.

The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the cocktail party controversy, over the seven days till Tuesday.

That will buoy National as it prepares to unveil its party list tomorrow.

But that may be checked by the finding that its promise to outspend Labour on tax cuts is looking less credible to voters, now it has also pledged to retain Working for Families and other Labour policies.

Just 35 per cent of voters questioned for today's poll thought National would still be able to afford bigger tax cuts than those outlined by Labour - compared with 48 per cent who thought not.

The poll showed, meanwhile, that voters are somewhat less gloomy about their economic prospects than four months ago, with 45 per cent believing their financial situation would improve in the next 12 months, compared with 30 per cent who thought it would get worse.

In April, the figures were 42 per cent and 39 per cent respectively.

Miss Clark must name an election date by mid-October - but that is assuming an election on the last possible date, November 15.

It would also assume a shorter-than-usual campaign - and Labour has more to gain from a longer, rather than shorter, run on the campaign trail.

So the pressure will be on for Miss Clark to name a date by mid-September - just weeks from now.

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But in a sign of just how unstoppable National's lead looks, today's poll comes as it prepares to break with tradition and announce a record 73 candidates for its list - compared with its usual 65.

On current polling, that would leave it short of MPs. In recent years, Labour has also moved to a longer list.

Sitting MPs are expected to be ranked in the top 50 on National's list but new-comer Steven Joyce, a former campaign manager, is expected to vault ahead of some into a higher ranking. Another might be Maungakiekie candidate Sam Lotu-liga. Former All Black Michael Jones is understood to have been courted but eventually decided against running.

The poll surveyed 1102 voters and has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent. The party vote results excluded 11 per cent of voters who answered "don't know".

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Jum #3 05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

It is interesting that Key thought that voters had blamed Labour for the tapes, when really he was the one who told us it must be Labour because the quality of the tapes were so low. And he pulled the paper out of the bin trick again. Surely no one is silly enough to believe that Labour would leave paper lying around a bin knowing National would use that against them. A definite set up by National, which instantly makes me wonder about the taping being a set up. Not only is he accusing Labour people wrongly when he admitted to Hosking that he didn't know, but he is also telling New Zealanders that if you support Labour you are not as good as National voters are. How arrogant and divisive is that. Do New Zealand voters actually welcome a person who thinks half the country is not worthy of him? If so we have changed - for the worse.

I totally agree with Murray - slow but steady Government for all New Zealanders. Unfortunately, the 80s and the 90s have bred an impatient selfish bunch of people who see no value to raising the quality of life and wages of all New Zealanders, only themselves.

It appears that lying about your true intentions for New Zealand by Key and his 90s thinking caucus is what New Zealanders want.

Murray #2 05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Sorry, Jonathan, but there will be a lot more misbehaviour and showing no upbringing if National is in office for a few years.

National believe there is nothing that is a worthwhile contribution or participation in the community unless it is a paid job - parenting rates pretty low in the Nat's thinking. Unemployment and numbers on the DPB have been reduced no-end by the Labour-led Government, but National is never satisfied.

Labour-led's policy, begun by Steve Maharey, was to train and place individuals in real and suitable jobs - to break the cycle of on again/off again welfare. This policy is slower to bring results, but the results are evident - unemployment has gone down from 150,000 to 17,000. National will "crack the whip" and bring attention to the numbers they have put into work, but how permanent will this employment be and what will be the social cost of these policies?

Labour-led has given strong incentives for solo parents to find some work, and those who are able to manage it, in whatever way, have more income and a better life. It is true that the comparative poverty and social injustice experienced by the families who are unable to take this step is causing concern.

Again, Labour-led is addressing the circumstances of the particular family. These families have to seek help, but "special needs grants" has been given a boost and the complexities of Working for Families is being addressed. Gradually, but surely, more individuals and families are finding their long-term, independent niche. The employment transience of people under too much pressure is being overcome.

Society is undergoing rapid change. National's plan is to "crack the whip" and be punitive. This will result in "sticking plaster" results and poorer social development. Since last election National has softened the way it is telling it, but its direction (or intending direction) is still the same - harsh and unproductive.

John Key must have Judith Collins biting her lip.

And, Jonathan, your milk and your power bill will still go up. You will be lucky if your wages do not go down, because that is how John Key will try to create all these extra part-time jobs - more employment but lower wages. The system will be less efficient.

Jonathan #1 05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Maybe if Labour did something about the real issues for once they'd get some traction...meanwhile as the tapings were going on my milk went up another 10c, I got comfortably my highest ever power bill and the kids kept getting beaten up. I also note Helen has been off gallavanting down south when only a few weeks ago she chastised Key for taking a short holiday with his family.

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