A world leader for the new rocket science

BY COLIN JAMES
Last updated 08:01 12/04/2010

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OPINION: Just as policy wonks and scientists were settling in last Wednesday to plot how to ramp up research into agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and as business was yet again pushing John Key to delay the emissions trading scheme, Tokyo announced one.

New Zealand's ETS is due to come into effect on July 1 for all sectors but agriculture, delayed to 2015, and forestry, in since January 2008. Delay now would need rushed legislation.

ACT would vote for that. John Boscawen, backed by Rodney Hide, has been peppering Science Minister Wayne Mapp on the accuracy of temperature readings collated by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

ACT thinks climate change is a hoax. It listens to sceptics who think there has been no global warming and/or humans are not the cause and reckon the United Nations' scientists cooked the books to scare us into green penitence.

Have they really? In last week's New Yorker, Elizabeth Kolbert turned sceptic on the sceptics: "No one has ever offered a plausible account of why thousands of scientists at hundreds of universities in dozens of countries would bother to engineer a climate hoax."

Try this: the honour of being picked for the project, then a reputation to keep up, then (to coin a phrase) a snowball effect - or, to quote Citigroup chief executive Chuck Prince in 2007, a month before his and other banks started sliding towards subprime-induced bankruptcy: "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

Plausible? Hardly. Mr Key's Cabinet goes with the UN's scientists. That has, paradoxically, put him where he swore he would not go: ahead of trading partners with his, albeit much softened, version of the all-sectors, all-gases ETS. His ETS is broader than Europe's. Australia's pale ETS is stalled until after this year's election (when the Greens might have the numbers to get it toughened). The United States is exploring regulatory routes round a hidebound Congress.

The only movement has been in Japan but then only modestly and only in Tokyo, where last week Right-wing governor Shintaro Ishihara decreed large non- industrial emitters must cut emissions by 8 per cent and large industrial sites by 6 per cent on average between 2010 and 2014 from their highest three-year average in 2002-07 and, if they miss, they must buy credits in an ETS. The centre-Left national government's plan is stalled.

Despite the ETS front placing, Nick Smith has not backed off the July 1 date. He reaffirmed it at another New Zealand world-leading climate change initiative: last week's inaugural Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions conference. Mr Key, under lobbying pressure, was less unequivocal but did say he intended to bring it in on time.

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Take your pick between the two men.

Dr Smith's reaffirmed line, noted here last month, is that changes are being made to allocation and other regulations, in part because there is no Australian scheme to align to, as he had intended, and in part because a large number of smaller businesses, including hothouse growers, now qualify for credits.

If trading partners go slow, Dr Smith's line is to use the scheduled 2011 review to extend beyond January 1, 2013, the present temporary 50 per cent concessions to big emitters. Some businesses want no delay in the start date. The forest industry has been in the scheme for 27 months already and is adapting and starting to plant.

Holcim needs certainty for a new, energy-efficient cement plant (the alternative is imports, possibly from dirty plants).

But in climate change, "certainty" is a slippery word. Princeton University's Tim Searchinger, an expert on "interdisciplinary environmental issues related to agriculture", told the 31 countries at the research conference: "Don't trust the numbers. They are all generated in the second-best way." He was referring to options for increasing food production, not the temperature readings.

Professor Searchinger underlined the population challenge: how can enough food be produced for a population set to grow by a third by 2050 when roughly one billion of the present 6.8b are underfed? Having canvassed a wide range of options promoted as solutions, including no-till cropping, biochar and bringing undefined "other" land into production, he settled for increasing productivity.

By genetic modification? a delegate asked. It had "real potential", Professor Searchinger said, and was a "useful tool", but "not nearly as important as a lot of other things". Greens will puzzle whether to grump or cheer.

Professor Searchinger says climate change adds to the food problem because, the UN scientists say, it will reduce productivity. Nevertheless, he ended on an optimistic note "because there has been so little effort to solve these issues" and, if world-leading Mr Key's global alliance scientists put their minds to it, "we can solve it, just as we built rockets".

It's that simple? Sometimes climate change talk ascends into a kind of mysticism. Mr Key might lead the world but he stays on earth.

ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz

- © Fairfax NZ News

9 comments
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Rick   #9   07:31 pm Apr 13 2010

Noting your comment about whatsupwiththat.com, Luke, I have to agree that it is generally biased towards the skeptics. However, suggesting that politicians are the final abiters of truth is drawing something of a long bow. I also read a lot of stuff from other sites provided that they provide URL's to back up their position.

I also have spent a lot of time trying to understand the science and, believe me, that can give you a headache sometimes. Good to see that you are studying it though - I wish more people would.

With regard to your comments on the UN's desire to tax individuals to free themselves from nations contributions, I make this comment; almost half of the UN's income is supplied by US, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand. The remaining roughly 180 countries pay the rest. Certainly you could pull out NZ and put in France, for example, but the fact is that the UN could not exist without the western nation's contributions. If the UN looks like doing something that the western countries don't like, it is threatened with non payment and this they hate. They have been working towaeds a solution to this for some time as the UN sees itself as a world government in waiting.

Google "tobin tax" if you want a nasty fright. No URL's from me, spend a few nights chasing through that yourself. Good luck and nice debating with you guys.

Luke Johns   #8   10:48 am Apr 13 2010

The curious thing about Ozone is that it is thinner at arctic and antarctic latitudes, where fewer people can live. CFCs are released at ground level, and are stable enough to travel for years. They eventually end up in the stratosphere where they are broken up by photodissociation, releasing chlorides. The chlorides are then free to catalyse the breakup of ozone down into O2.

The UK House of Commons is by far a more reputable source than wattsupwiththat.com, and the idea that the UN has the ability to impose a worldwide tax is laughable when they cannot even get the USA to pay their fees.

Rick   #7   10:14 pm Apr 12 2010

@Bruce#6 Well, let’s start with the ozone hole. It was discovered a couple of decades or so ago, but it was not a case of there being no hole and now there is one. Nasa went and looked and found a hole. Is this normal? Nobody knows. It gets larger and it gets smaller. Ozone layers around the world vary in thickness between seasons and years. The curious thing is that ozone layer is generally thicker over populated areas and the hole is over Antarctica where there is almost nobody. Ozone is depleted, amongst other things, by chlorides. 95% of which are given off by the sea surface. Ozone creation is a continuous process, so we cannot "run out" of stratospheric ozone. The more ozone (O3) is destroyed, the more free oxygen radicals (O1) are available to bind with free oxygen (O2) to create ozone (O3), the same applies with free oxygen (O2). Should we worry? I don’t know, but I don’t think so.

Yes, human behavior does effect the local environment (such as cities) but these amount to a tiny fraction of the Earth's surface and have little or no measurable effect on the global climate as a whole. Certainly volcanoes and ocean currents do to a limited extent, but humans cannot control these immensely powerful phenomena either. The thing that has by far the most effect on our climate is the sun.

Bruce   #6   08:24 pm Apr 12 2010

So human behaviour has no impact on the local environment?

Or the environment has no impact on the climate?

Is that what you are saying Rick?

Volcanoes have impact on the environment and climate. Ocean currents can have an impact on the climate, but men cannot?

And the ozone hole ....

Rick   #5   05:25 pm Apr 12 2010

@Luke Johns #3

Oh, and in response to your defence of certain unscrupulous climate scientists, you must read this...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/the-medieval-warm-period-a-global-phenonmena-unprecedented-warming-or-unprecedented-data-manipulation/

Rick   #4   05:08 pm Apr 12 2010

@Luke Johns#3 The thing about this subject is that, whatever evidence one puts up, there is always someone who says it’s wrong. This is very hard to disprove because of the complexity of the science. On top of that, there are many who fill the media with emotive nonsense. So I present a historical proof that is easier to grasp and is irrefutable. About 1100 AD to 1300AD, Eric the Red was tossed out of Iceland for “some slayings” and he moved to Greenland. This country was much warmer than it is now and had forests of birch trees, grass and other vegetation. The Vikings prospered, growing grain and livestock and became major exporters of rope, hides , wool and other important products of the time. The large permanent settlement grew and even had stone churches. Then it got colder and the settlement was abandoned. It has not been that warm in Greenland since that time. This is fact and it is not questioned by anybody.

Now, it needs to be explained why the “global warming” of today is still not warm enough to allow birch forests to grow in Greenland. Did the Vikings have bigger SUV’s than we have now? Were their factories belching out more pollutants?

No. Climate change is normal and natural. Human beings don’t cause it and we can’t control it. The idea is as ludicrous as trying to stop the wind. http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/medieval-warm-period-rediscovered and http://newsmax.com/InsideCover/Forecasters-odds-global-Warming/2010/03/30/id/354205

So why are the Global warming supporters so vehement in their dire predictions? Well, you need to look behind the curtain, Dorothy. http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/1/2/63214.shtml

Luke Johns   #3   12:40 pm Apr 12 2010

The report by the UK House of Commons addresses your concerns about the Climategate so-called "scandal". The professor was not hiding raw data, he was merely refusing to release it to people who were insulting and antagonistic to his work. The data was verified by independant research.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387i.pdf

Also, the so-called poll is rubbish. http://www.desmogblog.com/30000-global-warming-petition-easily-debunked-propaganda

Not to mention, the past decade is the warmest on record. http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/jan/HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps.html

You could go on, but you just reveal yourself as ill-informed.

Rick   #2   10:04 am Apr 12 2010

Yes, Colin, the UN has cooked the books, and they have been caught doing it. To give just three examples:

- "Climategate". Where Prof. Jones discussed ways to "hide the decline" which would damage their theories were it known. And also hiding the raw data from other scientists which would show up their manipulation of it. - The IPCC statement, ahead of Copenhagen, that the Himalayan glaciers would all have melted away by 2035. When challenged, the scientist who wrote it (with the approval of Mr Pachauri - head of the IPCC) admitted that it was a lie to "put pressure on world leaders". - The respected scientific magazine "Nature" retracted a published article saying the sea levels would rise by as much as 800 mm, when it was discovered that the "evidence" was at best flawed, if not entirely invented.

As for the thoudands of scientists... there is an international poll signed by over 30,000 qualified scientists who are skeptical of human caused global warming. As opposed to the 2,600 scientists who support it.

And then there are the global temperatures which have been on a cooling trend since 1998.

I could go on and on but I think that's enough.

David   #1   09:50 am Apr 12 2010

The scientists are following the funding and who can blame them. You forgot to mention France abandoning their ETS because of flawed science and the damage to their economy. Polling in the US and UK put believers of AGW at 25%, Tony Abbott has had a stratospheric rise in the polls over his opposition to their ETS. Once our world leading ETS starts and household bills start rising Key will take a huge hit and the media will slaughter him. I bet if Clark was still in charge she would be pragmatic and announce a delay. Going to be a long Winter for the Nats with the budget hitting 400,000 landlords, GST changes, ACC rises, rising petrol prices and interest rate increases. No one to blame but themselves for taking their constituency for granted, Labour are too stupid to take advantage with their continued leftist nonsense but the fact Act cant get any traction must worry them.

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