Editorial: NZ will be down the list for Australia

OPINION: Jenny Shipley once famously declared that she woke every morning and counted the numbers. Having just secured a fragile two-vote majority in the Australian parliament, Julia Gillard is about to enter her world.

Her government is dependent for its majority on the Australian equivalent of Alamein Kopu, Jack Elder and Tuariki Delamere – volatile MPs who have broken from the parties with which they first entered politics.

Ms Gillard's new allies – Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie – all have greater legitimacy than their New Zealand forebears. All were elected as independents, but corralling them is likely to prove every bit as challenging as corralling waka-jumpers has proved in this country.

Mr Oakeshott, in a performance echoing that of NZ First leader Winston Peters 14 years ago, kept Australians waiting for 26 minutes at a televised press conference on Tuesday before saying that he would support a Labor government.

Mr Windsor is already at odds with his new colleagues over their plans for a mining tax and has revealed that he opted to support Labor over Tony Abbott's coalition because he considered Labor the weaker suitor. It would be less likely to call an early election.

Mr Wilkie, a former intelligence analyst and Green Party candidate, has a history of stomping off in a huff. In addition, Ms Gillard has her predecessor, Kevin Rudd, a man widely suspected of leaking against her during the election campaign, to placate. Keeping her government afloat will take all her skills.

For New Zealand, the colour of the Australian government matters less than the personality of its leader. Rob Muldoon and his counterpart Malcolm Fraser shared similar politics but loathed each other, Mr Fraser so much so that he once jumped up and down in a hotel room in an attempt to wake Sir Robert sleeping in the room below. David Lange and Bob Hawke had a similarly testy relationship. Both showmen, neither wanted to cede the limelight to the other. However, John Howard worked productively with three New Zealand prime ministers – Jim Bolger, Jenny Shipley and Helen Clark – despite being dismayed by Mrs Shipley's ousting of his friend Mr Bolger and having very different politics from Miss Clark.

Her successor, John Key, built a working relationship with Mr Rudd and it would be a surprise if New Zealand's affable prime minister could not do likewise with Ms Gillard. However, the Australian prime minister is likely to be preoccupied with domestic issues for the next three years. The price of Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor's support is parliamentary reform and the creation of a hugely expensive national broadband network. Mr Wilkie has wrung a commitment for the refurbishment of Tasmania's Royal Hobart Hospital and pokie machine reform.

It is not a climate in which a single economic market – top of New Zealand's wishlist – is likely to become a priority. Mr Key has his work cut out to advance the integration of the countries' two economies.

- © Fairfax NZ News