Editorial: The challenge we all face

Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons has a graph she delights in brandishing during Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard's select committee appearances. It shows a steeply climbing line with a series of other lines curving gracefully off it, The Dominion Post writes.

The steeply climbing line is the price of crude oil, which has risen from US$33 a barrel to US$139 in four years. The graceful lines which curve downward are the Reserve Bank's forecasts of future prices. In each instance the bank has been wrong. Despite its consistent view that oil is over-priced and will fall to a new "equilibrium", the price has continued to rise inexorably. The bank is not alone in under-estimating the impact of growing demand for fuel in China and India, political instability in the Middle East and speculative trading in oil futures. Its forecasts are based on the predictions of international experts.

Perhaps they will be proven right in the long term. Perhaps prices have risen to unsustainable levels, though some market watchers are now tipping a rise to US$150 a barrel by next month. However, it would be optimistic in the extreme for governments or individuals to assume that petrol prices will ever return to anything like the "equilibrium" of US$19 a barrel forecast by the Treasury just four years ago.

Here in New Zealand, we have grown accustomed to relatively cheap petrol. We think nothing of using our cars to drop the kids at school, nip down to the corner dairy for a litre of milk, or to drive to work rather than take public transport.

But, with the economy exhibiting the classic symptoms of stagflation - rising inflation, slowing economic growth and rising unemployment - it is time to think again about how we use our cars.

We could start by considering whether it is really necessary to drive the children to school. The footpaths are probably safe and, contrary to popular misconception, paedophiles do not lurk behind every bush. Most children would benefit from a little exercise before they sit down to their first lesson. So, too, would parents if they walked rather than drove to the dairy. Reducing commuter traffic is an issue for local authorities and the Government as well as individuals.

Wellington, with its compact central city, is ideally suited to public transport. In some suburbs commuters can already get in and out of the city almost as quickly by bus as by car, but delays are an ongoing source of frustration for train passengers, and some bus routes would benefit from more frequent services.

Nothing is more calculated to persuade a commuter to reach for the car keys than waiting for 20 minutes in the cold for an overdue bus, then watching it sail past because it is already full.

For the foreseeable future high petrol prices are the reality. Rather than wringing our hands, it makes sense for all of us - individuals, local authorities and the Government - to think again about how we get from point A to point B.

Undoubtedly, however, the most effective way of reducing our dependence on imported fuel is to improve the reliability and frequency of public transport services. The world is changing and New Zealand needs to adapt with it.

- © Fairfax NZ News