Gearing now for peak oil shock

Concerned residents bring Transition Town model to Hutt

A movement that "stops the 'overwhelm'; the feeling 'but what can I do'?  It's an opportunity for people to come from an individual standpoint and make a difference."

That's how Normandale resident Juanita McKenzie describes Transition Towns.  It's a model in which community-based initiatives facilitate transition from a globalised, oil-dependent society to a resilient, re-localised society that can thrive in a world where there is less abundant cheap oil.

A series of local meetings are about to get underway for people worried about the environment and the effects of rapidly escalating petrol prices, who are interested in talking about local action and being prepared.

The first Transition Town was kicked off in Kinsale, Ireland, in 2005 and repeated in Totnes, Wales, the next year. 

It's snowballed. It's being replicated in several hundred 'towns' worldwide (that can be anything from overgrown villages to large cities), including 36 centres in New Zealand. 

Paul Kennett, another member of Transition Town Lower Hutt, says it's a response to the twin challenges of 'Peak Oil' and climate change.  While there is growing consensus about the reality of global warming, which in the Hutt could mean rising sea levels and more extreme weather events, that's less so in regard to Peak Oil. However, as petrol prices rise to more than $2 a litre, people may be starting to sit up.

Transition Town Lower Hutt's recent submission to the regional council's draft Regional Policy Statement argued there is a "multitude of evidence" that the world oil supply has reached its peak or will do so in the next few years. 

"This means that the supply of cheap oil available worldwide will be outstripped by rising demand, resulting in a steep, continuing increase in prices.  While virtually impossible to predict for sure, credible experts expect prices to reach between US$200 and US$1000 per barrel a few years following the peak, and rising geometrically from there."  Currently the price is US$132.

Current high prices should not be dismissed as a temporary spike, Mr Kennett believes.  And don't think that rising oil prices will just mean we have to leave the car in the garage more often.

There are some 400,000 products, if not more - including most plastics - in which oil is a key ingredient.  Farming and food production, with its fertilisers and machinery, is oil dependent.  So are many other industries.

"Lower Hutt is a long way from current food sources," Mr Kennett points out.

While the definition of Transition Town is "somewhat fluid...it's true that some of the 36 Transition Towns in New Zealand are more interested in starting than actually underway", Mr Kennett says awareness is growing.   

In Lower Hutt there's a core group of about 20 people, including the likes of energy analyst Molly Melhuish and Greens candidate Ginny Horrocks.  But Mrs McKenzie stresses it's "absolutely not" a political movement.

The TT model provides a "conceptual framework" but within that each town adapts and decides its own priorities and responses.  It might be community gardens, better cycling networks, local skills exchange systems.  In submissions to city and regional council annual plans, TT Lower Hutt has said that roading and traffic departments need to reassess any plans that assume cheap oil.  "It is no longer a 'given' that those days will return."

Mrs McKenzie said from feedback she's received at community events where she's set up a stall or given out information, existing environment and sustainabilty groups welcome Transition Towns "as a way of linking up with other people to continue the momentum".

Under the TT model there's room for people to concentrate on their passion, "their particular buzz".

Another local member, Natalie Hormann, likes the way that it seems to draw in people "from across the spectrum.

"Everyone feels that pinch (petrol prices, environment concern) and sees the issues.  So it's not only a certain 'type' of people; it's not so much an 'all Green' agenda."

n Transition Town Lower Hutt workshops are planned for Saturdays in June - 7th and 14th in the Petone Baptist Church and 21st and 28th at Korokoro School (all 7.30pm).  Everyone is welcome.

That's building up to a city-wide meeting planned for 25 June (venue to be announced). 

For those who want to find out more, try www.transitiontowns.org.nz, or phone Paul Kennett 027 4421055 or Juanite McKenzie 586-9982.