Ice shelf finding 'debunks claims of sceptics'

By KIRAN CHUG - The Dominion Post
Last updated 05:00 11/11/2009
DEEP FROZEN: A mooring line encased in platelet ice after  being immersed  in supercooled water from under the McMurdo Ice Shelf. Alex Gough of Otago University is  in the background.
ANDREW MAHONEY
DEEP FROZEN: A mooring line encased in platelet ice after being immersed in supercooled water from under the McMurdo Ice Shelf. Alex Gough of Otago University is in the background.

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New Zealand scientists say massive ice shelves are protecting Antarctica from experiencing the same rapid decline in sea ice as the Arctic.

The research team says the discovery further debunks the claims of sceptics who have pointed to the continent's growth as evidence against global warming.

The team was led by Otago University physics researcher Andrew Mahoney, who said the eight-month study focused on a topic scientists understood little about.

Dr Mahoney said findings would help climate scientists make predictions about the future.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research oceanographer Mike Williams said the research explained why Antarctic sea ice was not decreasing at a similar rate to that of the Arctic.

Figures from America's National Snow and Ice Data Center show that Arctic sea ice shrank by about 4 per cent of 500,000 square kilometres each decade during the past 30 years. By contrast, Antarctic sea ice was not believed to have changed much in size and may have increased slightly.

However, Antarctic Research Centre director Tim Naish, who was not part of the research team, said the latest data issued in a report by Nasa indicated that the amount of Antarctic sea ice lost since 2003 could have doubled.

Dr Naish said the New Zealand team's findings were exciting as they would help scientists understand which parts of the continent would become vulnerable in the future.

Scientists already knew the hole in the ozone layer meant a mass of cold air was channelled over Antarctica, suppressing the effects of warming temperatures.

This study added another explanation to why the sea ice was not decreasing rapidly, and provided a more complete response to the questions of global warming sceptics, Dr Naish said.

"The simple answer is that the balance of evidence is completely overwhelming."

Although the ice shelves provided sea ice with a buffer against warming waters, that buffer would not last forever, he said.

Scientists needed now to understand why the ice shelves provided a better buffer in some areas, so as to predict how fast and how much sea levels could rise.

This was one of the most serious consequences of climate change, and Dr Naish said it was an area that would be central to discussions in Copenhagen for the United Nations climate change conference next month.

The more scientists could do to understand why and predict when sea ice would decrease, would help determine sea level rises, he said. Once the buffer of ice shelves was lost – and Dr Naish said it was unknown how stable they were – the Antarctic sea ice would be less protected from global warming.

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That could lead to sea-level rises around New Zealand's coastline.

Dr Mahoney said the findings meant that in the future climate-change scientists would need to take into account how warm water would interact with ice shelves, and not just floating ice-sheets.

Dr Williams said understanding how sea ice would change would help scientists better predict how weather systems would change in the southern hemisphere.

WHAT THE SCIENTISTS FOUND

Massive ice shelves make up half the Antarctic coastline

Cold water melts from these ice shelves

The melted water protects the ice sheets from the warming effects of climate change

This causes ice sheets to grow in winter, although they still melt in summer

This is why Antarctic sea ice has not declined as quickly as Arctic sea ice in response to global warming

Arctic sea ice:

Is landlocked

Covers about 15 million sq km in the winter

Melts to cover about 7 million sq km in the summer

Extends all the way to the North Pole

Antarctic sea ice:

Floats freely in the ocean

Covers about 18 million sq km in the winter

Melts to cover about 3 million sq km in the summer

Does not reach the South Pole

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado

7 comments
Post a comment
naysayer   #7   05:29 am Nov 12 2009

Just a moment...if the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica is combatting global warming, would this now be viewed as a good thing and render the Montreal Protocol redundant? Also, if the increase in size of the Antarctic sea ice proves that the loss of sea ice has doubled since 2003, then perhaps any coming decrease in size of the Antarctic sea ice in future will be viewed as having halved the loss of sea ice since 2009...and render the Kyoto Protocol redundant...

Terry Hardwick   #6   06:05 pm Nov 11 2009

It should be of great concern to all Kiwis that their taxes are being spent on sending "scientists" on expensive overseas trips to inform us that global warming makes antartica larger. Their findings state that the sea ice shrinks in summer and expands in winter and water which melts from ice is cold. Its hard to understand why Dr Naish is so excited about these sort of revelations as they have been common knowledge for centuries.

The article also states that Arctic ice shrunk by 4% of 500,000 sq km, and later states that the area of Arctic ice is 15,000,00 sq km. I wonder how much that information cost us!

Steve Schapel   #5   05:02 pm Nov 11 2009

People who make statements such as "the melted water protects the ice sheets from the warming effects of climate change", really need to be aware that in order for this to make any sense at all, they need to provide evidence that there are any "warming effects". As far as we can ascertain, there is no such evidence.

By the way, I think the headline of this article is misleading. Realists (sceptics) primarily question the bizarre belief that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing, or will cause, dangerous global warming. Focus on the "why", not the "what". So even if the reported studies proved what they purport to prove, they still don't "debunk" anything.

pete   #4   03:03 pm Nov 11 2009

The area of Antarctica that is melting is very small, there has been a 20% increase in ice volume overall, the arctic sea ice is not disappearing either, sea ice extent is steady as usual if even just a little thicker because this last northern winter has seen summer ice not melting refreeze again, we have been cooling world wide for most of this new century, their has been no warming globally since 1998. Melts in the summer freezes in the winter, the climate always changes and always has. To be a scientist is to be a skeptic isn't it? Don't worry every one I'm sure a tax on all C02 emissions will make the climate stay completely steady right down the line, wow, just think about how easy forecasting will become without climate change.

Sam   #3   01:04 pm Nov 11 2009

"The research team says the discovery further debunks the claims of sceptics who have pointed to the continent's growth as evidence against global warming."

Nice to see unbiased scientific reporting, the team clearly went down there with the clear objective to disprove global warming skeptics. This report shows just what a sad and pathetic bunch of people scientists have become over the global warming issue (on both sides).

If you are so biased to start with then you can always find reasons to support your view...this is not science though.

Though I fully believe in anthropogenic climate change on a global scale, it is clear that Antarctica is cooling. If the ice shelves did stop sea ice depletion then we would expect to see sea ice reduction off the coasts where there is no ice shelf and this is simply not true.

ps. the continent is not growing...was about the same size as always when I last checked.

Rick   #2   12:35 pm Nov 11 2009

Typical scientists, go away for eight months, find out some basic details, cherry pick and then miss the whole point of climate-change sceptics. Any idiot knows climate changes all the time, point is what is causing it, the earth has been there done that before, when it has warmed up to temp. exceeding scientist worse nightmares, and man was not driving cars or burning fossil fuels. It's a huge gravy-train that scientist indulge in, please put half your energy into protecting our water which is really in trouble.

Doug Matthews   #1   12:22 pm Nov 11 2009

So this is how 'Science' works in NZ now. Perfectly reasonable people who see a confidence trick a mile away raise issues with the global warming computer models of the United Nations. A group of 'scientists' then go out and try and fit some ridiculous theory around their version of the truth to ensure they continue to get the money they need to continue their work. If these Scientists had come to any otehr conclusion the following would have occured. 1. No mention in the press. 2. Funding cut immediatly. 3. Career over!

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