The La Nina weather pattern that ruined summer is on the way out, which means a return to normality for Wellington's weather over the next three months, say climate scientists.
But unfortunately, a "normal" autumn in the capital involves progressively more rain as winter approaches.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) released it outlook for March to May today, saying the mature La Nina event in the tropical Pacific - which produced more rain and cloud over summer than usual - should be gone by Easter.
But that could just mean more of the same for Wellington, according to Niwa principal climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan, given the region traditionally experiences a lot of rain over autumn and winter.
"It will get wetter and colder. I'm already noticing dew on the grass in the mornings,'' he said
The nationwide outlook predicts more storms but autumn temperatures are likely to be average.
Niwa will release its official climate figures for summer in about a week, but the anecdotal evidence already speaks for itself, Dr Mullan said.
"Living in Wellington, I don't remember any night where I had to throw off the bed clothes because it was too humid and sweaty to sleep. It just hasn't happened this summer.''
The MetService is predicting tomorrow will be windier and cooler in many places, after almost a week of relatively calm and mild weather.
Meteorologist Daniel Corbett said a trough due to cross the country tomorrow as "quite dynamic".
"With it comes a change to strong, cool southwesterlies. To some, it will feel cold. The upside is that, in many places, Thursday should be a reasonably fine day.''
Winds are expected to ease off on Friday as a low approaches from the Tasman Sea. But that will bring rain to many places on Saturday as a cool, southerly flow spreads over the country, Mr Corbett said.
"There is a chance of some severe weather on Saturday, which may affect the Ironman New Zealand event in Taupo and the Karapoti Classic event in Wellington.''
Sunday should see conditions ease, clearing to fine weather over the north and west of both islands.
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