Peter Dunne has everything to lose

DANYA LEVY

Peter Dunne's political career is on the line this election. A new poll shows after 27 years as the MP for Ohariu, he could be unseated by Labour's Charles Chauvel.

But with many voters still undecided, the battle for Wellington's only marginal seat could go either way. That's led to some heated exchanges this week, and not just from the candidates, as Danya Levy reports.

''We are the Epsom of the South,'' says the exasperated man in the green chequered shirt.

''Our electorate is the laughing stock of the wider Wellington community.''

The audience in the Ngaio Town Hall is clearly offended and starts booing him.

It's a rainy, cold Wednesday night but that hasn't deterred about 170 Ngaio residents.

There was standing room only when the candidates took their seats earlier at a long trellis table at the end of the hall.

The public meeting is put on by the Ngaio Progressive Association which boasts it is the biggest Ohariu candidates' debate before each election.

This election is shaping up as the closest in the electorate for many years.

A new Fairfax Media-Research International mini poll puts supports for Mr Dunne on 37.4 per cent, less than two points ahead of Mr Chauvel on 35.6.

National's Katrina Shanks is a distant third on 19 per cent, the Greens candidate Gareth Hughes registered just 1.4 per cent and a huge 34.6 per cent are undecided.

The survey of 163 voters has a margin of error of 7 per cent, which means the results are too close to call.

As sitting MPs both Mr Chauvel and Mrs Shanks are high enough on their party's lists to guarantee they will be back in Parliament after the election, no matter how they fare in the electorate.

But with United Future on just 0.3 per cent in the latest Fairfax Media-Research International poll, it is highly unlikely the party will reach the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.

That means Mr Dunne's political career is over if he doesn't retain Ohariu.

Back in the Ngaio Town Hall it's Mr Chauvel's turn to give his introductory remarks.

Instead of standing behind the podium like the previous speaker, he strides confidently to stand in front of the audience.

He tells them he's a 43-year-old former lawyer who's lived in Wellington for the past 15 years with his partner and has an office in Johnsonville.

''It's the first time Labour's had an office in this electorate since Peter was the Labour MP back in 1993, three parties ago.''

The audience laughs.

The fact Mr Dunne's been in four parties and a part of both Labour and National governments is a perceived weakness Mr Chauvel makes the most of.

''I will always be a member of the Labour Party and if I'm not I won't be in Parliament.''

Mr Dunne is up next - not wanting to be outdone he also walks out in front of the audience and tries to counter Mr Chauvel's criticism.

''The people of this electorate vote for someone to represent them in Parliament, regardless of party.''

''I look at the people who come to my electorate office for assistance, the many hundreds each year, we don't ask them which party they belong to or who they voted for.

''Everyone has the right to be served equally and represented equally.''

The meeting is a tough gig for Mrs Shanks.

The audience sniggers when she says National has delivered on its promises.

Asked to justify why the Government has adopted the United Kingdom's failed system of national standards, she begins to talk about her children.

''Just answer the question,'' one man shouts.

Things get testy when she speaks of the Government's proposed mixed ownership model for four state-owned energy companies.

''Asset sales'', many in the audience yell back.

A woman later gets a round of applause by telling Mrs Shanks that selling state-owned assets during a global recession ''would fail economics 101''.

Despite being part of the National-led Government, Mr Dunne isn't the target of the audience's anger about asset sales.

The poll also shows that despite a blatant pitch by Prime Minister John Key for National voters to back Mr Dunne to ensure his Government retains its stable coalition partner, not everyone is taking heed.

Of those who plan to give National their party vote, 40 per cent said they would vote for Mrs Shanks.

The more votes she gets, the less Mr Dunne will get.

The Ngaio debate was the third time the candidates has squared off against each other that day.

Earlier a Dominion Post online forum had also become feisty with Mr Chauvel accusing Mrs Shanks of using her family to pull votes, Mr Chauvel calling Mr Dunne an ''Ayn Rand with hair'' and Mr Dunne taunting Mr Chauvel by asking how effective he could be for the electorate from the Opposition benches.

After the Ngaio debate, the man in the green chequered shirt identifies himself as Karl Kane. He explains he was mocked when he told colleagues he was coming to the debate.

''I was asked if I was going to bring a pillow for Mr Dunne because he must have a sore bum from sitting on the fence for so long.''

The 34-year-old lecturer says after the debate he will be voting for Mr Chauvel.

''I see that Charles has mana, Peter doesn't.''

It is clear Ngaio is predominantly a Left-wing audience.

Mary Gavigan, who is in her 50s, says she is still deciding who she will vote for but says the Greens make sense.

''I think the Green Party is looking very young, very progressive, very fresh in terms of their ideas and policies.

Colin Cross is impressed with the Libertarianz candidate Sean Fitzpatrick and will be giving that party his vote.

''I like the idea of the Libertarianz supporting people making choices for themselves,'' says the 49-year-old.
Geoffrey Coe is 28 and says he will vote to get rid of Mr Dunne.

''Peter's been there long enough, he sort of jumps around from one thing to another.

''It's more of a pay cheque it seems.''

A parliamentary source describes this year's campaign as particularly nasty.

Perhaps that is unsurprising - there is a lot at stake.

Related stories:

Claws are out in Ohariu live chat

Ohariu - and Dunne - on a knife edge

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