Ohariu - and Dunne - on a knife edge

Peter Dunne is facing the fight of his political life with a new poll showing he is holding on to the Ohariu electorate by the skin of his teeth.

The Fairfax Media-Research International mini poll shows the UnitedFuture leader, who has held the north Wellington seat for the past 27 years, could be ousted by Labour's Charles Chauvel.

It put Mr Dunne on 37.4 per cent, less than two points ahead of Labour's Charles Chauvel on 35.6.

National's Katrina Shanks is a distant third on 19 per cent and the Greens candidate Gareth Hughes registered just 1.4 per cent.

A massive 34.6 per cent of voters were undecided.

The poll, conducted on Wednesday night, surveyed 163 voters and has a margin of error of 7 per cent.

Research International spokesman Paul Epplett said that means the race for Ohariu is too close to call.

''There are a lot of people who are going to stand in the ballot box and make up their mind at that point in time.''

Prime Minister leader John Key has urged National voters in Ohariu to back Dunne; he even attended UnitedFuture's annual conference in August to extol the virtues the Government's stable support partner.

However, Mrs Shanks has been campaigning hard, hitting the malls and building her support.

The poll shows voters like her and many are refusing to accept the deal National struck with UnitedFuture in a bid to guarantee it coalition partner after the election.

Of those who are going to give their party vote to National, 40 per cent said they would vote for Mrs Shanks.

''What that is saying is that her strength in the electorate is undermining Peter Dunne's likelihood of retaining the seat,'' Mr Epplett said.

That means every vote for Mrs Shanks is now a vote for Mr Chauvel.

Mr Dunne had a noteworthy resurgence during the 2002 election campaign when he charmed the television debate audience participation ''worm'' with his commonsense approach.

United Future swept back into Parliament with eight MPs.

But since then, Mr Dunne has struggled to find a winning formula and his popularity has fallen every election; from a giddy 12,500-vote majority in 2002, to 7700 in 2005 and plummeting to 1000 after the 2008 election.

The fact that Mr Dunne remains popular in the electorate can be partly attributed to the lifeline National has thrown him.

Mr Key has continually said he wants to have support partners after the election, even if National was in a position to govern alone after November 26.

UnitedFuture represents a solid partner which hasn't faced the dramas that have befallen ACT and the Maori Party over the past term and led to MPs quitting their parties.

However, it appears voters are becoming irritated with deals done over electorates.

At a heated candidates' debate in Wellington suburb Ngaio this week, Mr Dunne was accused of being a ''fence sitter'' who changes his allegiances when voters change the government.

Even the ever popular Mr Key seems unable to convince Ohariu voters to back Mr Dunne.

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