Dry start to summer forecast
Wellington can expect a dry start to summer with temperatures forecast to hover close to average for the region.
Niwa today released its seasonal climate outlook, saying close to average early summer temperatures are expected for Wellington and other parts of the central North Island.
Average temperatures for Wellington for November to January are expected to be between 15 and 15.5 degrees Celsius.
Rainfall, soil moisture and river flows are expected to be below normal in these areas.
Climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said rainfall was likely to be near or below normal in all North Island regions and in Nelson and Marlborough.
Gisborne and the Hawke's Bay were the places to watch, because they would be drier than normal, she said.
Temperatures in Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa are forecast to be close to or above average.
New Zealanders from Auckland to Gisborne will enjoy the warmer climate, with temperatures expected to be average or above average in the north and east of the North Island.
Griffiths said there was a half chance that a weak El Nino could also develop in the next three months in New Zealand.
The ocean was warm around the equator at the El Nino threshold, but the atmosphere had not responded yet, she said.
The Dominion Post