The innocent face of public debt about to get ugly
First Reading - By VERNON SMALL - The Dominion Post
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OPINION: You have to be of a certain age to remember Little Olivia, the innocent face of the public debt burden during Labour's 1984 election campaign.
"Olivia is three years old. She already owes $5000," the message ran. The point was that, even before she went to school, Olivia had been burdened with our extravagance as a society; a debt that she would have to service and ultimately repay.
Olivia's intergenerational "bill" was calculated by adding government and state enterprises debt to private debt, and dividing it by the population.
Three-quarters of the total debt was owed by the Crown in 1984, so her share was about $3750. When she helped persuade the public to throw out Sir Robert Muldoon net debt stood at $11 billion, 31.5 per cent of gross domestic product.
Since then we have been on a fairground ride that has seen gross debt soar, then plunge to less than 18 per cent of gdp. Now it is running back up to sky-high levels. Net debt - gross debt minus the Government's financial assets - became a thing of the past in recent years. It is about to become a real and present danger again.
It is difficult to know how a generation able to discount fears about government debt - Olivia would now be 28 - will react to the ugly forecasts in the May 28 Budget.
Finance Minister Bill English gave a peek this week at how nasty they would look; or to be more precise, how much nastier they could have looked without his Budget.
Preliminary forecasts (translation: under the previous government's policies and without National's brave intervention) tipped gross debt to hit 45 per cent of gdp by 2013. Compare that with the 33 per cent forecast as recently as the Treasury's "central" scenario from December, or even its "downside" scenario of 38.6 per cent.
With Budget deficits of $10 billion a year indefinitely, by 2023 middle-aged Olivia would owe about $30,000 as gross debt reached 70 per cent of gdp.
It is a considerable burden both in terms of interest on the debt, about $8 billion a year, and for an economy requiring funds to finance it in a credit-constrained world.
The projected levels of debt - which Mr English implies will be lower once his long-term Budget measures are in place - are still relatively modest by the standards of some bigger economies that are looking at debt to gdp ratios well north of 100 per cent.
But the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and international rating agencies put more store by the trend and the speed of the deterioration than by the absolute number. They perhaps figure that there is more stress in adjusting from low debt to high debt than from taking on a bit more when you are already up to your armpits in red ink.
However, the soaring debt forecasts beg the question of what Mr English and his colleagues can do to rein them in.
If they were "unacceptable", even as they stood in December, what more might be necessary now to comfort rating agencies that debt will return in time to more acceptable levels - about 30 per cent of gdp?
Mr English is indicating "trade-offs" but is ruling out radical surgery - which would be required if we do not take our medicine now.
The Government has pledged to not touch social entitlements (especially Olivia's pension on pain of political death) though cuts of about 5 per cent are under way across what the Government has defined as the "bureaucracy".
So what is left?
Asset sales are off the agenda for the current term, but will surely be medium to long-term policy options.
The 2010 and 2011 tax cuts seem certain to be gambited, unless the economy stages a remarkable recovery, while the $2.4 billion annual contribution to the Cullen superannuation fund will be seen as an unnecessary luxury.
If the language of his recent speeches is any clue, Mr English will also look to temper new spending, with $1.75 billion a year currently earmarked for new initiatives.
More broadly, he might look beyond the new spending allowance and the debt- to-gdp ratios for more "whole of Government" targets. That could include more explicit targets for spending growth and the shape of the balance sheet.
Anyone for a bolt-on to the responsible fiscal management provisions in the Public Finance Act? Something new to help stave off the worst effects of the Mother of All Recessions?
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This morning on National Radio we heard from all types of commentators - I felt I could have got up there myself and had a go. There were has-beens, wannabes, me-toos and the plain ordinary.
Where are our research economists, sociologists and academics in general - sitting in their ivory towers counting all the billions we pay them - or worrying that if they comment they will not receive more billions - the collegiate approach?
There was one academic from Canterbury University speaking this morning - from the "Innovation Faculty", or similar. He had quite an accent and sounded not to have lived in NZ very long - he spoke about "Kiwis". I wanted to ask him if he knew that they were small, nocturnal, very shy native birds; and that we were New Zealanders.
His comments appeared to me to be about what you would pitch at a fourth-form commerce class.
Anyway, the one with the most bias of all was Richard Griffin. He appeared to be blaming Labour for the debt situation. I do not know what he thought National would have done had they been in office. National's "secret agenda" would not have been a secret. There would have been a large pool of unemployed and a downward pressure on wages. No-one with any appropriate skills would have been given work to do in the public service - there would not have been any jobs. There would have been a sequence of tax cuts giving rise to more leveraged borrowing and consumer spending, inflation, higher balance of payments deficit, housing boom - and an even greater 'crash' as has been seen in other countries where tax cuts were given on top of deficits. There would have been a widening income-gap as they lowered immigration and pitched higher disposable incomes at certain skill groups at the expense of the remainder in order to keep young people at home and to "catch-up with Australia".
The low fiscal debt and low unemployment touted as such an advantage going into the recession caused by the global crisis would not have been there, and private debt would have been so much the worse as on average New Zealanders were spending roughly $600 for every $500 they earned.
Richard Prebble was brought in to have a go. As usual, he had the perfect solution to every problem and everyone else was leaving him lost for words due their ignorance. If they would only listen to him, it could all be done overnight. It didn't matter one way or the other about the $1 billion in tax cuts because we were talking about $50 billion.
What? $1 billion over 1 or 3 years, or $50 billion over how long, and was the $50 billion a projected fiscal deficit or was it reduced GDP? He was confused, but whatever! It didn't matter! Just listen to him because he has the answer.
We have done that before, haven't we?
And then there was a guy Pask from BusinessNZ. We were definitely borrowing to pay into the NZ Superannuation Fund and that was just plain crazy - like a household having money in the bank when it had a mortgage, he said. But no, we weren't borrowing for tax cuts because they were some long-term scenario and stimulated business. I thought he was the "me-too", but perhaps he was the most biased.
Pask had it the wrong way round, didn't he? It is a plain certainty we are borrowing for tax cuts if they are being given when we are already borrowing to cover deficits. The equity markets will bottom one day, and unless capitalism is "out-the-window" will one day make a good investment choice. If the equity markets are not considered to be good choice then the money is able to be on lent for local revenue-producing infrastructure which would have entailed borrowing, anyway.
The important point being that future superannuation is being "funded" on the balance sheet mentioned above and that National is not undermining superannuation provisions by stealth in the same way it is removing the Working-for-Families disposable income margin with its Independent Earners Rebate.
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I said in an earlier post there was a "plain commentator" on National Radio this morning.
In my view, Brian Easton made the most insightful comment on the NZ economy this morning (Nine to Noon). He did not have the latest Treasury update, but he had read the December update and he was quite clear that there was enough in that to prompt the cancellation of tax cuts forthwith.
The government went ahead with legislating for the full programme and implementing the first April 1 round. National is concealing its decision on the tax cuts and its prevarication is in order to distance the voter from:
* a long period in opposition espousing a tax cut policy which would have worsened the effect of the global recession upon New Zealand.
* election promises of tax reduction when there was a clear need for overseas borrowing for deficits and infrastructure, although economic recovery might well follow normal recessionary trends.
* the imprudent decision to go ahead with this programme when there were predominant indications that the recession would be prolonged and recovery gradual.
Brian Easton put it that the OECD had given an exceptional forecast for New Zealand. The opinion I accept is that this Paris-based organisation does not "entirely dictate the policy".
This government's economic management had already not followed counterparts due to it applying a limited stimulus response and a conservative approach to future debt levels. We were already exceptional and the OECD ostensibly concurred with government policy.