Key's climate-change hospital pass from No 10

FIRST READING - By VERNON SMALL

Right between the eyes. What a greeting for John Key on his first grip and grin at 10 Downing Street.

The new tourism minister and prime minister, in Britain to talk up the 2011 Rugby World Cup and visit the big inflatable rugby ball, has been flicked a nasty hospital pass.

In something of a reversal of the food miles argument – the notion that consumers should shun (or government should impose a cost on) food that has travelled further and has a bigger carbon footprint – the Brits have decided to slap a charge on travellers; the further the higher.

This dark cousin of airlines' frequent flier programmes will impose up to $237 on a one-way trip to New Zealand . . . and a similar amount, obviously, on any Kiwis buying a return trip to London. It is a double dose of unwelcome medicine; to the country's endemic travel bug and our "key" tourism industry at the same time as the world slips into recession and inbound seat numbers drop.

It will inevitably harm visitor numbers from Britain, one of our biggest tourist markets, at a time when the tourism industry here is already contemplating a $1 billion hit from the general decline in the world economy; something Mr Key had already highlighted during the Apec summit in Peru. To add losses to insults, it will also hit the long- haul income of (Government majority-owned) Air New Zealand. If it is a genuine conservation tax – and not just a tariff barrier or a tax grab – then it will be designed to lower the number of visitors heading here.

Its success will be measured in reduced visitor numbers. And it will kick in before the very Rugby World Cup – when visitors from Britain and what they spend are particularly important – that was the major focus of Mr Key's backfire photo opportunity in London.

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There is no reason to assume that Mr Key's efforts to lobby British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will come to anything.

He was right to argue it will create anomalies and could spread a new travel tax contagion to other European jurisdictions. (And it is worth asking how British long- haul passengers will react if the rest of Europe does not follow London's lead. Why not just hop across the Channel and pick up lower-taxed flights with other European carriers?)

But when New Zealand lobbied against food miles it could point to this country's sustainable food production record, which makes the carbon footprint of a litre of New Zealand milk small despite the distance it travels.

However, Mr Key and the incoming Government have left themselves exposed on climate change.

Arguments about New Zealand's sustainable moral mandate – its clean green reputation and the target of carbon neutrality – have been weakened by putting the emissions trading scheme on hold and by giving air time to sceptic-cum-denier ACT's plans for a select committee to look at the whole issue. It would have the committee question the science – and impartiality of officials – on human-induced climate change as the Government repeals the ban on new base-load thermal generation.

At the same time the deal with ACT sets in place a test for its support; that a credible case is made "that New Zealanders would benefit from action by New Zealand in conjunction with other countries that are important to us".

That begs all sorts of questions. Is it purely a selfish test we will be applying? We will not act unless it helps us, even if it means a watery grave for Kiribati or Bangladesh? Are there some countries that are not important to us that we would not, therefore, work with?

It is yet another reason to rethink the Government's new stance on climate change. That is already facing strong questioning from the forestry industry, which is in first gear for the new regime. As the lobbyists dust off their National Party contacts, ministers can expect other sectors to start beating a path to their door.

Even some energy generators, which face some of the biggest bills from an emissions trading scheme, will be urging the Government to move fast and stop the on-again, off-again nature of policy development in this area.

Firms that are already making tentative plans to buy carbon credits on the international market to offset emissions are now in limbo.

Will there be a carbon tax? And if it is in the $5 to $10 a tonne advocated by some business groups, will it even matter?

Most analysts believe it will take a price above $20 a tonne to seriously divert investment decisions away from fossil fuels and toward sustainable generation.

Perhaps when Mr Key and his Cabinet are looking at details of the select committee inquiry, they could add to the terms of reference consideration of incoming United States President Barack Obama's words.

"My presidency will mark a new chapter in America's leadership on climate change that will strengthen our security and create millions of new jobs in the process. That will start with a federal cap and trade system.

"We will establish strong annual targets that set us on a course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them an additional 80 per cent by 2050. Now is the time to confront this challenge once and for all.

"Delay is no longer an option. Denial is no longer an acceptable response."

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Kevin Campbell   #4   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Anyone that thinks the science on climate change is settled has rocks in their heads. You could drive a truck and trailer through the arguments that the global warming alarmists want us all to believe.

Good on ACT for injecting some common sense into this issue so the scientific facts can be exposed from the science fiction.

Average mums and dads dont know or bother to check that Vernon Small is talking absolute crap about Kiribati disappearing under water.

I think it is fraudulent when a "reporter" (I use the term loosely) says things like the polar bears are dying but doesnt actually check to find out that there are 35,000 more polar bears now than in 1940.

I live for the day a NZ newspaper does some research on the facts instead of printing the IPCC press releases without checking.

GO ACT GO!

George   #3   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

I'm sure British Travel agents will do just that and make the first flight to NZ or Australia a short one !!! IE: to France Scotland or Ireland, Then make the big trip from there, each counties Airlines would welcome the chance to show up the UK government to what this stupid TAX idea really is.

Come on Travel Agents take up the challenge, Your customers deserve better.

George NZ????????????.. No I'm not in the Hotel industry??????. just a sensible Ex patt Pom living in the sunshine, believe me it opens the mind.

Maurice Smalley   #2   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

Act leader Rodney Hide is the only member of parliament with any academic qualifications in this area.

He has a masters degree in enviromental science !!!!

I think we all should listen to him on this issue before we make any costly decisions that most likely will have no impact on climate but will cause much financial hardship.

J Keenan   #1   05:26 pm Jan 28 2009

I've now basically commented three times on this issue.

A ten cents in the dollar rebate capped at $250 per individual would be enough to offset the air tax and offer NZ a point of difference to UK travelers. We could even extend it to all tourists or at least European tourists and it could act as a competitive advantage over other long haul destinations. Envelope maths says 2 million tourists to NZ p.a. Even if all these tourists were offered and eligible (need to have spent at least $2,500 pp in the economy) for the $250 max rebate it'd cost the govt $500m p.a. That would be good value considering tourism is estimated to bring in $20b by some. No doubt our great financial leader will be all over this... oh we'll wait and see what the officials think, nice pass Mr Key. Offer some solutions not complaints (they will just go unheard).

Welcome NZ business to the global environmental (political) scam, I know why don't we put the ETS on hold and limit environmental corporate investment in the country while the rest of the world begins to turn the eco screws to their advantage.

What worries me now about Mr Key is that worse than having an agenda he really doesn't have any ideas once past the election slogans.

He should be playing hardball, talk to France, Germany, Ireland the Dutch about re routing through their countries and connecting with short haul budget carriers. TAKE THE FIGHT TO BRITAIN! Vernon Air NZ govt majority ownership is GOOD it means firm decisive political action can be taken against this type of extortion, lets see what deals can be done for the CONSUMER and play European countries off against each other.

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