Formula predicts who will win World Cup

BY COEN LAMMERS
Last updated 05:00 01/06/2010

Relevant offers

Football

Ex-Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho says he will be back in the Premier League soon Football Federation Australia threatens Western Sydney Wanderers fans over flares Canterbury United close to clinching playoffs berth after 'million dollar goal' WaiBop United's playoff hopes over after loss to Canterbury United Jamie Vardy signs new contract with Leicester to 2019 Leicester stun, Spurs move into second, Liverpool held Leicester City go six clear after outclassing title rivals Manchester City Western Sydney Wanderers draw with late Santalab strike against Melbourne Victory Brisbane Roar destroy lacklustre Central Coast Mariners in A-League Hawke's Bay United down Wellington Phoenix Reserves in scrappy ASB Premiership clash

The All Whites have just beaten the finalists of the upcoming World Cup, according to a radical new British formula which predicts Serbia and Brazil to reach the final.

The formula, developed by Stefan Szymanski, professor of economics at the City University in London, together with respected football author, Simon Kuper, is the key ingredient in their new book, Why England Lose.

The theory is mainly based on economic data.

The formula can correctly predict at least 75 per cent of results based on the differences between the countries' GDP (more resources), population sizes (bigger talent pool), experience at the World Cup, and home advantage.

The doubling of the GDP is worth 0.1 goal. Economics aside, however, experience still counts for a lot, with double the experience counting as half a goal. Home advantage is even given greater importance, a whopping two-thirds of a goal, which hands South Africa a decent head start in every game.

According to the theory, Serbia will knock out the US, South Korea and Spain to lose in the final to Brazil.

Interestingly, according to the formula, New Zealand will shock the footballing world and advance from group F alongside Italy, only to be eliminated by the Netherlands. And who would it put it past them on the latest performance?

Ad Feedback

- The Press

Special offers

Featured Promotions

Sponsored Content