Formula predicts who will win World Cup

Last updated 05:00 01/06/2010

Relevant offers


Winston Reid's own goal costs West Ham United a win in English Premier League Arsenal lose ground on leaders after Norwich draw, Liverpool edge Swansea Diego Costa dropped but Chelsea still toothless in goalless draw with Tottenham Real Madrid's Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo score in 2-0 defeat of Eibar Northern Football set up grand final showdown against Mainland Pride Auckland City warm up for Club World Cup with win over Canterbury United Phoenix Reserves lose battle of the cellar dwellers to stay bottom of the table Nelson Marlborough Falcons beat Youth League leaders Team Wellington Football Ferns: Top five performances of last decade in international football Football Ferns captain Abby Erceg says win in Brazil is 'huge step forward' for Kiwis

The All Whites have just beaten the finalists of the upcoming World Cup, according to a radical new British formula which predicts Serbia and Brazil to reach the final.

The formula, developed by Stefan Szymanski, professor of economics at the City University in London, together with respected football author, Simon Kuper, is the key ingredient in their new book, Why England Lose.

The theory is mainly based on economic data.

The formula can correctly predict at least 75 per cent of results based on the differences between the countries' GDP (more resources), population sizes (bigger talent pool), experience at the World Cup, and home advantage.

The doubling of the GDP is worth 0.1 goal. Economics aside, however, experience still counts for a lot, with double the experience counting as half a goal. Home advantage is even given greater importance, a whopping two-thirds of a goal, which hands South Africa a decent head start in every game.

According to the theory, Serbia will knock out the US, South Korea and Spain to lose in the final to Brazil.

Interestingly, according to the formula, New Zealand will shock the footballing world and advance from group F alongside Italy, only to be eliminated by the Netherlands. And who would it put it past them on the latest performance?

Ad Feedback

- The Press

Special offers

Featured Promotions

Sponsored Content