It's all about weight

When Irish galloper Vintage Crop changed the face of the modern Melbourne Cup with his shock win in 1993, all hell broke loose in the Australian media about what lay ahead for the locals in the race's changed future.

The resulting commotion reflected more heat than light.

Bart Cummings, making a comment he has repeated with great predictability every year since, claimed the Europeans were getting a soft ride to glory in Australia's greatest race at the expense of the locals. He had plenty of supporters.

All the hot air obscured the real significance of Vintage Crop's win. He only carried 55kg.

Rather than signifying any top European stayer had the race at their mercy from then on it only really proved what most horsemen already knew – that a top horse carrying a lesser weight will win a top handicap – no matter what it is or where they are from.

Getting into the Melbourne Cup with the lightest possible weight has obsessed Australasian trainers since Archer won the first cup in 1860.

Horsemen know that an extra 1kg can cost a lot more than an extra length in the long run up the Flemington straight.

Jog down the drive with a sack of stones on your back and then a quarter of a sack and you will understand.

The Japanese connections of Delta Blues and Pop Rock, who quinellaed the cup two years ago, did their homework.

Pop Rock was kept away from the top group level for nine months to land a nice weight in the cup. Neither carried more than 56kg.

Vintage Crop's historic victory also represented a good old- fashioned hatchet job on the colonials by Irish trainer Dermot Weld.

The fact the horse had run in a hurdle race was considered an affront by the Australian media promoters of the "world's greatest handicap" and Weld was happy to play along.

His camp kept saying how much weight the horse had lost on the trip, and the media swallowed it word for word. Until cup morning when a huge European betting plunge financed out of Hong Kong left the bemused Aussie bookmaking ring sadder and wiser men.

After that the pendulum swung mightily.

All of a sudden the Europeans were unbeatable. Every highly- rated European stayer in the next decade was built up into favouritism. The public never stopped backing them and every one of them failed to win.

Most of them carried around 58kg or more. Only when the alert Weld sneaked Media Puzzle into the race with 52.5kg was the Vintage Crop triumph repeated.

Weld was brought up in an Irish handicap system where success was vital for survival. He has forgotten more about setting up a handicap than most Australians will ever learn.

That is why there has been a belated betting run for his inexperienced runner this year, Profound Beauty, which has only 51.5kg. Weld says it might be a year too soon for a four-year-old mare. Australians have learned through their pockets to ignore such distractions.

While Makybe Diva carried 58kg to win her third Melbourne Cup she was firstly an exceptional stayer, racing in ideal conditions, and secondly a triton among minnows in a poor field.

Exclude her and no horse has won the Melbourne Cup with more than 56.5kg since Think Big in 1974 – 34 years ago.

Might And Power, who carried that weight in 1997, was one of the most exceptional horses of his generation.

English trainer, Luca Cumani, is an expert in the field which is why Mad Rush is likely to win the cup today.

Cumani came over with Purple Moon last year and but for Damien Oliver having a rush of blood at the top of the straight instead of waiting until the clocktower, he would have won.

Cumani learned his lesson, went home and found another version of Purple Moon which he has set up to get into the cup with 53.5kg, about the average cup- winning weight.

He can only hope Oliver learned his. The combination of a European stayer set for the race with Australian race experience and an Australian jockey and a soft weight is irresistible.

Aidan O'Brien still believes Irish topweights can win and has assistance with not one but two pacemakers in the race to look after his best horse, Septimus.

Septimus, who was second favourite yesterday, might be the cup horse to change history but he might also be what the bookies call a talking horse.

He has a big weight for one who has only won one Group I race and has only had five starts in 18 months. But, to be fair, he is carrying nearly 4kg less than he did when he won the Irish St Leger beating a poor field.

The two Derby winners, C'est La Guerre and Nom de Jeu, have the standard four-year-old classic winner's weight of 54kg. Either can win. The only history Nom du Jeu has to beat is trying to become the first horse to win the AJC Derby and the Melbourne Cup the following spring since Phar Lap.

The history of handicap racing is littered with class horses under big weights succumbing to lesser animals with featherweights getting up in the last exhausting challenge. It is a lesson it never pays to forget.