NZ at lower risk as cyclone season looms

It is shaping up to be a good cyclone season in the South Pacific from next week with experts in New Zealand predicting fewer storms in parts of the region.

The season runs from November to May but NIWA's climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger says conditions favour a calmer season ahead.

The Pacific wide El Nino-La Nina index is favouring weaker La Nina conditions while the tropical seas surface temperatures - crucial to developing cyclones - are below average.

Salinger says there was an average risk of cyclones occurrence for those areas of the South Pacific near the International Date Line.

This includes the northern regions of New Zealand as well as Tuvalu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga and Niue.

There is an 80 percent chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500 kilometres of New Zealand sometime between November and May, with the highest risk districts being Northland and Gisborne.

East of the Date Line - in places including the Cook Islands and French Polynesia - are likely to have fewer cyclones this season.

On average six or seven tropical cyclones can be expected over the entire Southwest Pacific region during a weak La Nina season.

This compares with an average of nine or ten over all seasons.

"There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of December, which is normal in both neutral and La Nina seasons," said Salinger.

In an average season about half of the tropical cyclones that develop reach hurricane force with mean wind speeds at least 64 knots (118 km/h).

Last season there were seven tropical cyclones in the South Pacific.

Cyclone Xavier was particularly severe, reaching class five - or major hurricane - in strength, fortunately occurring over the seas east of the Solomon Islands, and tracking between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Depending on where the cyclones are formed, they will be named from a list in Australia or Fiji.

Fiji's list of upcoming cyclones includes Daman, Elisa, Ken and Mick.

Australia's offerings this year include Rebecca, Sheryl, Vernon and Wendy.

- © Fairfax NZ News