Climate change: $26pp a week

Battling climate change will cost each Kiwi about $26 a week by 2020, a report shows.

The figure is based on a 15 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 a figure that looks increasingly likely as the Government dismisses deeper cuts urged by groups including Greenpeace as causing too much hardship.

A 40 per cent cut Greenpeace's target is tipped to cost about $57 each a week, or $3000 a year, at a cost to the country of $15 billion a year, according to the report by the NZ Institute of Economic Research. The cost to each household would be even steeper.

Climate Change Minister Nick Smith said the report highlighted that getting too far ahead of other countries raised the cost to New Zealand. But doing nothing was not an option either: "If we slip too far behind international efforts we damage our clean, green reputation and may put our export market access at risk."

There are already signs that countries will use the failure of their competitors to make meaningful cuts to their greenhouse gas emissions as a trade barrier the United States may impose tariffs on goods from countries that don't match its own climate change efforts.

The Government is set to wrap up a whirlwind round of consultation on greenhouse gas targets ahead of a conference in Bonn next month, as countries prepare to thrash out a global deal on climate change. Dr Smith confirmed that the Government would announce its target before the conference on August 10. It is likely to put up a range of targets which will depend on the scope of the new deal, which would be the successor to the Kyoto protocol, under which New Zealand agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels.

Dr Smith said New Zealand's emissions were 25 per cent above 1990 levels "but what is saving our bacon is there were 566,000 hectares of trees planted in the 1990s".

Satellite imaging had confirmed those trees were growing strongly and could be credited against the rise in emissions. Previous estimates had suggested New Zealand faced a $1b liability for its failure to meet its Kyoto targets, but that had now turned into a small surplus, thanks to the trees. "That is completely offsetting the 25 per cent increase in emissions."

Labour's climate change spokesman, Charles Chauvel, said he took the report with a grain of salt.

"What's certain is that, with our carbon pollution emissions rising rapidly and with other countries committing to action, New Zealand can't afford to look complacent by failing to set a serious reduction target."

But Dr Smith said the Government had to be realistic. "The usefulness of the economic analysis is that it starts crystallising for the public the tradeoffs. It's very easy to ... sign a Greenpeace petition for a 40 per cent reduction in emissions without recognising that's going to cost you $3000 a year."

- © Fairfax NZ News