2009: year of dieting and gardening

As we prepare to send 2008 packing, the futurologists have been crystal-ball gazing. So what can we expect in 2009?

An American futurologist is predicting a major depression followed by revolution, increased dieting, a big move back to growing your own vegetables, and a rise in cheerful music.

The Trends Research Institute, a New York-based group which claims to have predicted the financial meltdown of 2008, says next year will bring another Great Depression. There will be "a range of calamities that will leave no sector unscathed", the institute says in the latest issue of its magazine, The Trends Journal.

It also predicts a revolution, although the details are vague. "When people are homeless, helpless, desperate, jobless and hungry, sooner or later they will rebel." It does not believe the new US president, Barack Obama, will prevent any of this.

On the positive side, people will grow their own vegetables and music will become cheerful again. There will be "a reincarnation of the kind of upbeat and swinging sounds that characterised the only period comparable to today, the Great Depression," the journal says.

On the personal front, it predicts people will go on a spending diet and a food diet. "The diet industry will shed big bucks as consumers cut back on every aspect of discretionary spending." There will be a drive to be "fiscally frugal and physically fit".

Closer to home, Kiwi trend-spotter Mike Gould pointed to a 2009 energy crisis with a huge rise in the price of oil, and growing resentment of the wealthy.

Gould, chairman of the New Zealand Futures Trust, believes the economy "will be more likely to be at the depression end rather than a small 18-months recession". And as soon as there is a slight upturn in the world's bigger economies, the price of oil will rocket up and then in turn dampen down the economic recovery.

Gould does not predict revolution, but thinks there is likely to be a backlash against growing inequality, especially against wealthy people running companies that don't make money.

Gould also worries about the move away from a Christian-based society to one with a multitude of different groups with different values.

There was the risk of New Zealand becoming an incoherent society, with a significant number of people "who don't respect anything", he said.