Jeans going out of fashion?

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The words sounded ominous, especially coming from a jeans brand: "We are basically at the end of the denim dominance."

But the co-founder of Guess, Maurice Marciano, who broke the news in a conference call this week, said the change would mean more sales, not less.

The fashion cycle is turning yet again, and next spring it's spinning toward a greater emphasis on other fabrics. Khaki, corduroy and twill pants are expected to knock premium denim off its pedestal and inspire fickle customers to shop.

Analysts believe the market has overreacted. Millions of people around the world will continue to buy denim, whether Wrangler or Lee or trendier styles from Gap and American Eagle Outfitters.

Jeans sales grew 4 percent to $US13.7 billion ($NZ19.2 billion) in the United States in the past 12 months, according to research firm NPD Group.

What has changed is the softening of the market at the high end, spurred by more cautious consumers and a move to simpler, less adorned denim. But these pricier, more coveted brands now have the opportunity to diversify.

"The Street is overreacting and assuming denim is disappearing," said Brean Murray Carret analyst Eric Beder. "It's not a huge game-changing thing. This is more of a fashion trend shift than (affecting) the man who buys his pair of jeans every year."

WHERE'S THE BLING?

Denim has lorded over contemporary fashion since midway through the decade, and its popularity has permeated all price and trend segments, from $US200 jeans at True Religion to $US20 ones at teen retailer Aeropostale.

Even more traditional retailers joined the jeans bandwagon, from Brooks Brothers to AnnTaylor, lured by the desire to carry a key fashion item in their stores.

But the number of women's jeans that cost more than $US50 is down 2 percent in the past year, according to NPD.

NPD analyst Marshal Cohen says Marciano's pronouncement is more about the need for premium denim players to diversify than the love affair with denim being over.

"The brands are trying to figure out how to de-emphasize denim because the denim pie isn't getting bigger and there's just as many players," Cohen said. "I don't want to just be in the denim business as a brand today. Who wants to be in one commodity in anything?"

Diversifying has been an uphill battle in the past for many premium denim players, who saw their jeans fly off shelves but their non-denim fashions passed over.

But today, with a stronger brand name and the novelty of premium denim waning, shoppers are ready for something new.

True Religion is now increasing the amount of non-jeans clothing in its line to between 30 percent to 40 percent from about 5 percent last year.

Guess, where jeans currently make up about 30 percent of its total assortment, says it made up for fewer jeans sold during the summer with more sales of leggings and shorts, and said it intends to continue to diversify.

"It's my strong sense we'll end up selling more bottoms," Marciano said, noting he expected shoppers to buy one or two new styles in non-denim fabric in addition to a pair of jeans.

Bebe, which sells sexy looks to 20- and 30-year-old women, is similarly experimenting, adding pants cut like traditional jeans but in other fabrics.

Another factor influencing premium jeans makers' willingness to diversify is the current trend for unadorned and simple denim. Shoppers find it easier to swallow high prices for jeans with rhinestones, studs and other glitz.

"Premium denim slows down when the trend goes basic. How do you recognize that it's premium?" asked Beder.

"How much differentiation is there in that pair of $US189 jeans compared to a $US79 pair when they're just dark and straight?"

- Reuters