Return of the electric car

By JEZ SPINKS - SMH

At the recent Detroit motor show, one word raised a buzz amid the current doom and gloom of the global car industry: "electrification".

It was impossible to tour the cavernous Cobo Center in Detroit without bumping into some form of "electrified" vehicle - a car that for its propulsion relies on electrons rather than oil.

Toyota, General Motors, Ford, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Smart, Mercedes-Benz and specialist manufacturers such as Tesla (which already sells an electric sports car in the US) and Fisker are among the mass of motoring brands promising to put their electric concepts into production. Audi, BMW and Volkswagen are also working on electric-vehicle (EV) projects.

The sense was EVs could become the defibrillators that revive the pulse of the ailing US automotive industry.

In Detroit, a Chrysler executive said the time had come for cars that can be simply plugged into a conventional power socket for overnight recharging.

"(The electric-car battery) is a ... very defining technology for the next five years and an absolutely necessary technology for the next 15 years," says Chrysler's international sales boss, Thomas Hausch.

"Hybrid (petrol-electric technology) had its time and dominated motor shows. Now electric cars are ... the next step in capability."

This would be a second comeback for the electric car.

Limited range and high cost led to the first demise of EVs in the early 20th century, when better road systems allowed longer-distance travel and petrol became cheaper with the discovery of crude oil in Texas.

General Motors then built the first modern electric car in 1996, before controversially and famously - it became the subject of the 2006 film Who Killed The Electric Car? - abandoning its EV1 project after just three years. GM claimed there was no market for electric cars.

Since then the US's biggest maker has revealed the Volt, a plug-in hybrid car due in US dealerships in 2010 before arriving in Australia two years later. But Mitsubishi might be the first here with an electric car, with local chief executive Robert McEniry confirming his company is working hard on plans to bring in the iMiEV rechargeable city car.

But is it a forced hand by manufacturers or a change of heart?

Two key factors have put zero-emission vehicles such as all-electric cars back on the car industry's agenda.

Firstly, the US Government and European Union have recently introduced regulations forcing makers to lower their fleets' average fuel consumption, with financial penalties enforced if they exceed a set carbon dioxide emissions limit.

Then there's peak oil - the point at which the demand for oil exceeds the industry's ability to supply it. Some of the world's leading oil experts - such as Dr Peter Wells - are predicting conventional peak oil will arrive about 2014, with liquid-fuels peaking in about 2020.

Not all makers, however, are convinced buyers are queuing up to buy electric cars.

Toyota is one of the sceptics, despite its status as the leader in hybrids. The Japanese company has sold 1.7million petrol-electric hybrids since 1997, when it first put the world's most famous "green" car, the Prius, into production.

"Anyone who tells you they have the exact answer (to the perfect alternative-fuel vehicle) probably needs to check their sums one more time," says Toyota USA's national manager for advanced technologies, Bill Reinert. "No-one knows how big the market is (for electric cars). I think there's probably going to be more (electric-powered) product than customers to begin with."

Reinert believes advanced electric cars will eventually become the dominant vehicle of the future but that now there are many questions about EVs, such as cost, range and infrastructure.

Like many other makers, Toyota believes the battery is key to the success or failure of electric cars.

Lithium-ion batteries are popular in mobile phones and other portable devices but haven't yet entered mass production for automobiles. They're expected to be smaller, with higher performance, shorter charging times and improved durability over the nickel-metal hydride batteries used in petrol-electric hybrids such as the Toyota Prius. (Toyota, though, is using lithium-ion batteries in its prototype Prius plug-ins.)

But they won't be cheap. And that means electric cars are likely to be expensive - costing up to double the price of an equivalent petrol car.

GM's Volt is the size of a Holden Astra but is predicted to cost between A$30,000 and A$40,000 when it lands in Australian showrooms three years from now.

Toyota's FT-EV is based on the iQ 1.0-litre petrol car, which would ideally compete in the micro-car segment if it were sold.

Nissan, though, says it intends to sell an electric-powered small family sedan in 2012 for the same cost as a vehicle with a conventional petrol engine.

The most expensive part of the car - the battery, would be leased. Combined with the cost of recharging the battery, Nissan says the electric-car owner will pay about the same as if they were filling a tank with petrol.

The Japanese maker says there is a market for the electric car here, with the initial 160-kilometre battery range meaning it would appeal mainly as a second car.

"Close to 80per cent of people today drive less than 160 kilometres daily, so (the range is sufficient)," says Nissan Australia boss Dan Thompson. "But realistically it will, especially in the early phase, be for those people who have multiple cars in a household and are city-based."

Nissan-Renault boss Carlos Ghosn, one of the car industry's most respected figures, said late last year he wanted 10 per cent of the world's annual vehicle sales to be battery-electric cars by 2020. His vision is even more ambitious for 2030: electric vehicles accounting for half of annual sales.

Ghosn says fuel efficiency improvements with internal-combustion engines are not a long-term solution for the environment.

"A 20 (percent) to 30 percent improvement in emissions is not going to solve it," he says. "It is not the end game. The end game is zero emissions - and the best way to curb emissions is not to produce them at all."

Some statistics show there may be up to 2.5 billion vehicles on roads by 2050, up from today's 800 million. Low - and zero-emission cars will play a vital role in curbing the industry's contribution to the greenhouse gases responsible for continued global warming.

Global management consulting firm, the Boston Consulting Group, this month published a report estimating by 2020 there would be 3 million electric and plug-in hybrid cars and 11 million petrol-electric hybrid cars sold in the world's four largest automotive markets - western Europe, North America, Japan and China.

There were more than 400,000 sold in 2008, with Toyota petrol-electric hybrids accounting for more than 90 percent of that number.

However, the BCG's report, called The Comeback of the Electric Car? How Real, How Soon, and What Must Happen Next, predicts petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles will dominate in 2020 with nearly three-quarters of the automotive market.

The BCG warns government assistance will be needed to break this dominance.

"To reduce CO2 emissions, all automotive manufacturers need to include electric cars in their fleets," says a co-author of the BCG report, Georg Sticher.

"But they cannot do this alone. Unless governments act promptly to provide adequate incentives for consumers to purchase electric and hybrid cars and for power companies and private investors to provide the necessary infrastructure at affordable prices, the electric car may be off to another false start."

However, a California-based company called Better Place is already starting an almost single-handed crusade to introduce a global electric-car infrastructure.

Better Place was founded in May 2007 by Shai Agassi, who quit a well paid job with global software giant SAP to start a mission to end the world's dependence on oil.

Better Place is the world's first global electric-car grid operator, with a business concept based on mobile phones. As a mobile phone company provides a blanket coverage of communications towers, Better Place sets up a network of plug-in stations - in homes, offices, shopping centres - where owners can go to recharge their electric cars.

Drivers would subscribe to a plan of their choice, such as unlimited kilometres, maximum monthly mileage, or pay as you go. As mobile companies make money from minutes, Better Place makes its profit from selling electricity.

Better Place is already setting up in Israel, Denmark, California and Hawaii and has entered an alliance with Renault-Nissan to tap into their new battery-exchange-style electric vehicles. In 2012, the company plans to launch its concept in Australia.

The initial network is planned to roll out in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, though Better Place Australia chief executive Evan Thornley says the company has a solution to overcome long-distance travel.

"We're coming to Australia to prove this (concept) works in large countries as well as small countries," he says.

"Ninety-five percent of the people, 95 percent of the time, are living and working in and around our big cities. They're not going more than 150 kilometres all that often. And on the odd occasion they do, they can do a battery exchange that takes just three minutes."

The battery-exchange system is similar to swapping your barbecue gas bottle. EV drivers will be able to pull into "switch stations" positioned every 40 kilometres or so along freeways, replacing their exhausted battery with a fresh one without having to waste hours recharging.

Thornley admits drivers will have to stop more compared with a conventional engine but says the overall cost-saving benefits of EVs will far outweigh such negatives.

"The price we will charge per kilometre (for electricity) will be cheaper than what it would cost you to drive down the road using petrol," he says.