National bounces back on website

MATHEW GROCOTT
Last updated 12:00 05/05/2014

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National's chances on a prediction website of holding the Wairarapa electorate have rebounded in the past week after dropping 20 per cent when the party announced its candidate.

Winery owner Alastair Scott was selected as the party's candidate on Saturday, April 26, beating out three other nominees including list MP Joanne Hayes.

Last weekend National's chance of winning Wairarapa on website iPredict.co.nz dropped from 71 per cent to 55 per cent. By yesterday it had climbed back to 76.9 per cent.

Labour's chances on the site were put at 25 per cent.

iPredict is a website where users invest money into potential outcomes in politics and current affairs. The price of buying shares in an outcome reflects the possibility users put in it happening. It is uncertain if Hayes, who lives at Apiti, will now seek the National candidacy in Palmerston North.

Nominations for that position close today with the winner to face an uphill battle, according to iPredict. The site gives National just an 8.3 per cent chance of winning the seat. Labour incumbent Iain Lees-Galloway has a 92.4 per cent chance of holding onto Palmerston North, the website says.

In Rangitikei, National's Ian McKelvie is the clear favourite online at 94.3 per cent, compared with Labour's Deborah Russell on 9.1 per cent.

National is also predicted to hold Otaki with Nathan Guy at 90 per cent compared with Rob McCann of Labour on 10 per cent.

In the Maori electorate of Te Hai Hauauru, Adrian Rurahe of Labour is an 80 per cent chance to win with Chris McKenzie of the Maori Party on 20 per cent.

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- Manawatu Standard

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