Naylor given 50pc chance on website

00:00, Jul 14 2014

The contest for the Palmerston North electorate is neck and neck, according to an online prediction tool.

Incumbent Iain Lees-Galloway and challenger Jono Naylor each had a 50 per cent chance of victory on September 20, according to users of as of yesterday.

iPredict is a website where users invest money into potential outcomes in politics and current affairs. The price of buying shares in an outcome reflects the likelihood users believe it will happen.

Labour MP Lees-Galloway's chance of winning had been above 90 per cent before Palmerston North's mayor entered the race for National.

Since then the pair's chances of victory have moved up and down by a few percentage points but have generally stayed near 50 per cent.

The website is predicting National's candidates will hold on to the lower North Island electorates of Rangitikei, Otaki and Wairarapa.

In the Maori seat of Te Tai Hauauru, Adrian Rurawhe of Labour has a 90 per cent chance of winning. His Maori Party opponent Chris McKenzie was on 10 per cent.

As for the overall election result, the chance of a National prime minister after September 20 had risen to 76 per cent as of yesterday. The likelihood of a Labour leader running the country was on 21 per cent.


Manawatu Standard