Editorial: It's Jono's election to lose

Manawatu Standard

HOT PROPERTY: Palmerston North mayor Jono Naylor with his wife Karen.

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OPINION: If you were to place all of your faith in polls, you'd bet the house that Palmerston North Mayor Jono Naylor will romp in for re-election come about a month's time.

While the city has proven otherwise in the past, it is often difficult to oust an incumbent mayor, unless he or she has done something (or failed to do something) that has annoyed or upset the voting masses.

Our Versus Research polling today shows that Mr Naylor has an almost unassailable lead, with 61 per cent of respondents (all of whom were registered Palmerston North voters).

His nearest rival, former mayor Mark Bell-Booth, sits a mile back on 8 per cent. At least his numbers were within the 4.53 per cent margin of error. The same can't be said for the remaining four candidates, who polled 1 per cent, or less.

Even Leighton Haar, aka the naked pie man, didn't strike a chord with voters – although his name was not read out during the survey because his alter-ego name will not appear on voting papers either.

Mr Naylor's commanding lead will give him confidence over the next month or so, and so it should. The lead suggested in the poll would have surprised even his closest supporters.

But, as with all polls and statistics, people can take out of them what they want.

Mr Naylor, while comfortable, cannot afford to be complacent.

It is his election to lose, more than it is other candidates to win.

On the other side, Mr Bell-Booth has one heck of a mountain to climb if he is to make what looks like a one-horse race into something resembling competition. He needs to take votes off Mr Naylor and secure the lion's share of the 21 per cent of people who said they didn't know who they'd vote for.

Also, the poll results are a snapshot in time. There are still five long weeks of campaigning to go and a lot can happen in that time.

Leads can erode and substantial gains can be made. There are many twists and turns to come.

The worst thing that could happen would be for people to think the election is a foregone conclusion and not vote.

That should not be the case – everyone's voice needs to be heard.

The other interesting aspect of the poll was the majority of people who favoured a city-wide voting system over the existing ward system, which splits the city up during elections.

While not overwhelmingly in favour, a solid 53 per cent said they wanted a change, while 33 per cent like it the way it is. The real proof, like the elections themselves, will be on October 9.

- © Fairfax NZ News