MetService keeping an eye on two tropical disturbances in Pacific

Northwest of Fiji, this is one of two tropical disturbances being monitored in the Pacific.

Northwest of Fiji, this is one of two tropical disturbances being monitored in the Pacific.

There are no tropical cyclone warnings for the South Pacific, the MetService says.

Online forecasting and some media reported a new tropical cyclone warning for New Zealand.

There are none at present.

Edgecumbe was inundated when a stopbank failed and the township flooded.

Edgecumbe was inundated when a stopbank failed and the township flooded.

There are, however, several separate weather systems in the vicinity of New Zealand - a low pressure system forming to the west of the country, and two tropical disturbances in the south Pacific.

Those disturbances - too diffuse to be defined as cyclones - are east of Tonga near Niue and northwest of Fiji.

* Another wet week for most of the NI
'Exceptional' cluster of five downpours


There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 07-Apr-2017

Tropical Disturbance TD19F (1000hPa) was analysed near 20.4S 170.6W
at 060000UTC, near Niue, or about 250nm east of Tonga, moving south at around 3 knots.

The system should become slow-moving through Saturday, before turning slowly west-southwest from Sunday through Monday.

Environmental conditions are currently unfavourable for any
significant strengthening, but as the system begins turning westwards
during days 4-5, wind shear decreases, thus potentially allowing
TD19F to gradually strengthen.

There is a LOW chance of the system developing into a tropical cyclone through Saturday,increasing to LOW-TO-MODERATE on Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Disturbance TD20F (1004hPa) was analysed near 12.4S 175.8E
at 060000UTC, or about 310nm north-northwest of Nadi, and was
slow-moving. The system lies in a region of mildly favourable
environmental conditions, and global models are picking this system
to gradually intensify during days 4-5 as it begins moving soutwards
towards southern Vanuatu.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW for days 1-3, increasing to MODERATE from Sunday evening onwards.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 10-Apr-2017

Tropical Disturbance 19F is expected to remain near Niue through
Saturday, then beging moving slowly westward towards Tonga on Sunday
and Monday. The chance of TD19F intensifying into a tropical cyclone
is LOW for Saturday, increasing to LOW-TO-MODERATE from Sunday
onwards. While TD19F may not reach TC strength over the next 5 days,
the system is expected to remain a significant tropical depression,
which would likely generate high rainfall amounts due to its
slow-moving nature.

Tropical Disturbance 20F is expected to drift south-southwest, moving
close to southern Vanuatu during Sunday and Monday. The chance for
TD20F to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW through Saturday,
increasing to MODERATE from Sunday evening onwards.

A MetService tropical cyclone bulletin says the chance of the system near Niue intensifying into a tropical cyclone is low to moderate over the weekend but, as a significant tropical depression, it is expected to bring heavy rain.

The other tropical disturbance is expected to move south-southwest towards southern Vanuatu on Sunday and Monday.

MetService forecaster Matt Ford said there were two tropical disturbances being monitored by the Fiji authorities.

A composite satellite image showing the ex-cyclone to the east of New Zealand. A tropical disturbance can be seen at top ...

A composite satellite image showing the ex-cyclone to the east of New Zealand. A tropical disturbance can be seen at top left; another tropical disturbance can be seen to the upper right.

"Neither of them are tropical cyclones at the moment but they are promising conditions.

Ad Feedback

"Possibly the one that is getting everybody's knickers in a twist is tropical disturbance 20F [near Fiji moving towards Vanuatu].

"There are no tropical cyclones. To the northeast of Vanuatu it looks like it will move towards Vanuatu and it's likely it will reach strength.

New Zealand on Friday in a satellite image.

New Zealand on Friday in a satellite image.

"What happens to it after...we're really talking about Easter weekend. This weekend it's likely to move across Vanuatu.

"Around Monday or Tuesday it's deciding what to do. There's quite a range of possibilities and outlooks at this time. We're looking at various computer models and guidelines. Those kinds of possible forecast outcomes can change.

"There are massive amounts of uncertainty when it moves out of the tropics.

A tropical disturbance near Fiji in the south Pacific on Friday. New Caledonia is near the centre.
Fiji Meteorological Service

A tropical disturbance near Fiji in the south Pacific on Friday. New Caledonia is near the centre.

"There's a possible scenario which brings it towards New Zealand. The story is what's going to happen to Vanuatu.

"We're keeping an eye on it next week."

Ford said there was another low pressure system moving across the Tasman towards New Zealand.

Edgecumbe flooded after ex-Cyclone Debbie merged with a low pressure system and dumped a month's worth of rain in a ...

Edgecumbe flooded after ex-Cyclone Debbie merged with a low pressure system and dumped a month's worth of rain in a couple of days.

This system was expected to bring some heavy rain next week.

The Fiji Meteorological Service tropical cyclone forecast largely echoes the New Zealand meteorologists.

Strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms are forecast for Niue over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says Auckland recorded the equivalent of normal April rainfall - 84.6mm - in 14 hours from Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.

Many parts of the country had two or three times the normal April monthly rainfall in just two or three days.

Hamilton had its second wettest start to any calendar year on record since 1907 with 537 mm of rain.

The torrent dumped 164mm of rain on Tauranga while Whakatane had its wettest April day on record since 1952.

Kaitaia has its second wettest start to any calendar year on record since 1948 with 567 mm.
Wellington Airport recorded 72 mm in one day between 9.00am Wednesday and 9.00am Thursday, making it the wettest day at the airport in almost a decade.
The Niwa forecast said the country was stuck in a pattern favouring low pressure systems to the west and sweeping high pressure to the south and east.

Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said another band of heavy rain was expected on Tuesday for the North Island and north and east of the South Island.

"Furthermore, a tropical disturbance north of Vanuatu is being monitored for strengthening over the weekend into early next week.

"There is some uncertainty regarding the eventual strength and track of the tropical system, although its progress will need to be watched closely as it could influence New Zealand's weather later next week," he said.

However, Philip Duncan, forecaster for Weather Watch, said looking at the international models, two tropical cyclones may be forming north of New Zealand next week.

He was fairly confident that one of these would not reach the New Zealand's shores, but the other might directly impact the North Island.

"That's the sort of disclaimer with a long-range forecast like this. The models can change, and they do change, and we're not locking this in yet."

An ex-cyclone would bring with it tropical moisture, and tropical instability, he said.

"The combined concern is that the Tasman low sucks down the cyclone and you end up with a bit of a double whammy, and that's a possibility."

Even though it's not a certainty, with rivers already full, and the ground saturated, Duncan said people might want to be prepared.

"The entire North Island is now wetter than average, and two months ago the entire North Island was in drought."

 - Stuff

Ad Feedback
special offers

Gangs' fight night draws skeptics video

Tokomauri Hoterene bloodied from his fight against Head Hunter Cory Enoka.

Members from 12 rival factions stepped into the ring in a show against street violence. But critics don't buy it.

Can micronutrients help with anxiety?

Julia Rucklidge's team is currently conducting a trial to see if micronutrients can improve depression and anxiety ...

One in 10 adults in the developed world now takes an antidepressant.

Us Two: The Mad Butcher and Don Graham

Sir Peter Leitch, left, and Don Graham.

'You know the saying, "He'd give you the shirt off his back?" I've actually seen him do that.'

Lucy Hone: Stress for success

Having a Personal Stress Plan may just be the difference between life and death, writes Dr Lucy Hone.

Not all stress is bad - if you can learn how to handle it.


Wellington loses Si and Gary show

Wellingtonians won't hear Si & Gary on their breakfast show anymore.

But they'll get something more local in return - Polly and Grant.

Man caught with gun

A man was arrested after police found a loaded shotgun in a car. (FILE PHOTO)

Gang tension is believed to be be behind the arrest of a man carrying a loaded shotgun in Masterton.

How to stop begging? video

Marcus Pohio is homeless and regularly begs on Courtenay Place, in Wellington.

The only thing that will get Marcus Pohio off the street is death. But is public generosity speeding that up?

Ex-British Cars House for sale

The building features a tiled lobby and a vintage cage lift.

1920s character building with penthouse apartment and rooftop on the market.


Photos: Christchurch floods

Heathcote River flooding near Sloane Terrace.

The Heathcote River has burst its banks and flooded southern parts of the city.

Live: Southern deluge 

Dyers Pass Road was still closed at Governors Bay, near Christchurch, on Sunday after flooding and slips.

State of emergencies declared in several areas as flood waters force scores of evacuations.

State of emergency in Chch

Christchurch's Heathcote River was in flood on Saturday morning.

Residents evacuated in boats as persistent rain floods the Heathcote River, closing roads and inundating properties.

Heathcote residents trapped

Waimea Terrace resident Tarapreet Singh, 25.

The kitchen sink is brimming with water and the nearly overflowing toilet is unflushable.


More drama for English teachers

Fortune is the brainchild of Scott Granville, left, and Ben Woollen of Chasing Time Productions, an award-winning ...

Two Kiwi film-makers are attacking a gap in the worldwide English language-teaching market.

 More pain for GPs   

Dr Tim Malloy, the president of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners.

GPs say their sector is in crisis. Now they've got the ear of the Health Minister.

Missing trampers found

Police say the group became separated while tramping the Tongariro Alpine Crossing.

A rescue helicopter has been sent to airlift trampers from the Tongariro Alpine Crossing.

Body in bale ruling

The body was found at OJI Fibre Solutions and FullCircle Recycling on June 28 in Frankton's Pukeko Street.

If it hadn't been raining, Daniel Bindner might not have crawled into a cardboard recycling cage.


Terrier looking for a friend

210717 News Photo. SIMON O'CONNOR/STUFF
Katie Tahere's dog Mocha is looking for a walking buddy after her dog Coco ...

Mocha is looking for a new walking companion after losing her best friend.

Farewells not the focus

Chiefs coach Dave Rennie says the team aren't focusing on rallying together to try and send the departees out on a high.

Any game now could be the last for several stalwarts, but the Chiefs aren't using departures as motivation.

Building gets new roof

The New Plymouth District Council decided in January to use shingles instead of corrugated iron on the Gables under ...

The Gables Gallery's shiny new roof looks the part, thanks to 20,000 new shingles

From reporter to magical nanny

Not quite as graceful as Mary Poppins, but reporter Tara Shaskey gets a first-hand lesson on the production's flying stunts.

Mary Poppins is just a little bit magical. And that doesn't come easy or cheap.


Fetch not always a fun game

Chasing sticks can be a dangerous game, write vet Malcolm Anderson.

OPINION: Vet Malcolm Anderson offers some words of advice about the dangers of playing fetch.

No random drug tests 

Only following a police shooting do officers undergo drug and alcohol testing. (File photo).

Police are only given drug and alcohol testing if they fire a gun during an incident.

Millions spent fixing police cars

A police car comes to a final halt after crashing through a Hamilton property in June.

More than $8 million has been spent fixing damaged police cars in the past three years, with costs peaking in 2016.

Moon landing celebrated 

Buzz Aldrin stands on the Moon.

MEMORY LANE: Do you remember the first Moon landing?


Nelson too good for Wanderers


Nelson players and support staff after winning the  Nelson Bays Division 1 ...

Nelson turn it on to hammer Wanderers in Nelson Bays club rugby final. 

Buzz about beekeeping

05062015 News Photo: Marion van Dijk / Fairfax NZ.

Urban beekeeper Nigel Costley with one of his beehives in the ...

Nelsonians keen to learn more about keeping bees can do so in a short course through the Nelson Environment Centre.

Trespass case win

Lawyer John Fitchett has won a trespass case against Nelson College.

Lawyer wins case against Nelson College board meetings, but judge unimpressed.

Dancers put their best foot forward

Lillian Southward performs in the Jazz Solo section at the Nelson Performing Arts Competitions 83rd Annual Festival at ...

 Toes were on point at the performing arts competition held over the weekend.


Escaping the Beast of Blenheim

Stewart Murray Wilson talks to journalist Harrison Christian while fishing at the Whanganui river mouth.

Even though he lives far away under strict conditions, Stewart Murray Wilson still haunts his former partner.

Locomotives reunited

Blenheim Riverside Railway Society volunteers, from left, Gary Coburn, Ted Ellens, and Ralph Heywood, are pleased they ...

Decades after shifting coal together, two locomotives share a shed again.

Moutere are champions

The Moutere division one team celebrate after beating Renwick in the final at Lansdowne Park on Saturday.

Moutere are the 2017 Marlborough division one rugby champions.

Chinese keen on pricey NZ crays

New Zealand crayfish is a premium product in China where it can fetch $1000 a kilo.

When it comes to high end gourmet goods the Chinese have a growing appetite for New Zealand wine, water and crayfish.

South Canterbury

Ready, set...chomp video

Randy Santel tackles the Gotham burger challenge at the Central Cafe in Geraldine.

US competitive eater polishes off NZ's largest burger in under 10 mins.

Storm fells 100 trees video

Timaru man Dave Esler among some of the swampy gum trees which came down in Friday's severe weather, and the remains of ...

Timaru man loses more than 100 gum trees to storm which hit South Canterbury.

Mackenzie blanketed 

Heavy snow is falling in Tekapo.

Snow is still falling in the Mackenzie after a dumping overnight.

Power crews tackle cuts

A firefighter, from the Washdyke station, and a Netcon worker tackle a burning power pole on the Pleasant Point Highway ...

Pleasant Point residents urged to restrict power use as crews work to restore supply.


Stewart Island heritage gets $1m

An artist's impression of the Rakiura Heritage Centre. The centre has received, over $1 million in Government funding to ...

The Government is to commit $1.08m to the Rakiura Heritage Centre Trust.

Post-funeral brawl

Police and ambulance were alerted to the incident, but were not eventually required.

A post-funeral gathering in Bluff on Thursday night ended with blood, broken glass and a visit from the police.

Irrigation scheme 'a win-win'

Dairy Creek Ltd director Tim O'Sullivan, Pioneer Energy chief executive Fraser Jonker and Pioneer Energy project manager ...

A $10m irrigation scheme near Alexandra, Central Otago, is going to deliver water to about 1800 hectares of barren land.

Gecko stolen from visitor centre

The Marlborough green gecko that was stolen from the Fiordland National Park Visitor Centre in Te Anau.

An at risk gecko has been stolen from the DoC visitor centre in Fiordland.

Ad Feedback