MetService keeping an eye on two tropical disturbances in Pacific

Northwest of Fiji, this is one of two tropical disturbances being monitored in the Pacific.

Northwest of Fiji, this is one of two tropical disturbances being monitored in the Pacific.

There are no tropical cyclone warnings for the South Pacific, the MetService says.

Online forecasting and some media reported a new tropical cyclone warning for New Zealand.

There are none at present.

Edgecumbe was inundated when a stopbank failed and the township flooded.

Edgecumbe was inundated when a stopbank failed and the township flooded.

There are, however, several separate weather systems in the vicinity of New Zealand - a low pressure system forming to the west of the country, and two tropical disturbances in the south Pacific.

Those disturbances - too diffuse to be defined as cyclones - are east of Tonga near Niue and northwest of Fiji.

* Another wet week for most of the NI
'Exceptional' cluster of five downpours


There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 07-Apr-2017

Tropical Disturbance TD19F (1000hPa) was analysed near 20.4S 170.6W
at 060000UTC, near Niue, or about 250nm east of Tonga, moving south at around 3 knots.

The system should become slow-moving through Saturday, before turning slowly west-southwest from Sunday through Monday.

Environmental conditions are currently unfavourable for any
significant strengthening, but as the system begins turning westwards
during days 4-5, wind shear decreases, thus potentially allowing
TD19F to gradually strengthen.

There is a LOW chance of the system developing into a tropical cyclone through Saturday,increasing to LOW-TO-MODERATE on Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Disturbance TD20F (1004hPa) was analysed near 12.4S 175.8E
at 060000UTC, or about 310nm north-northwest of Nadi, and was
slow-moving. The system lies in a region of mildly favourable
environmental conditions, and global models are picking this system
to gradually intensify during days 4-5 as it begins moving soutwards
towards southern Vanuatu.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW for days 1-3, increasing to MODERATE from Sunday evening onwards.

OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 10-Apr-2017

Tropical Disturbance 19F is expected to remain near Niue through
Saturday, then beging moving slowly westward towards Tonga on Sunday
and Monday. The chance of TD19F intensifying into a tropical cyclone
is LOW for Saturday, increasing to LOW-TO-MODERATE from Sunday
onwards. While TD19F may not reach TC strength over the next 5 days,
the system is expected to remain a significant tropical depression,
which would likely generate high rainfall amounts due to its
slow-moving nature.

Tropical Disturbance 20F is expected to drift south-southwest, moving
close to southern Vanuatu during Sunday and Monday. The chance for
TD20F to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW through Saturday,
increasing to MODERATE from Sunday evening onwards.

A MetService tropical cyclone bulletin says the chance of the system near Niue intensifying into a tropical cyclone is low to moderate over the weekend but, as a significant tropical depression, it is expected to bring heavy rain.

The other tropical disturbance is expected to move south-southwest towards southern Vanuatu on Sunday and Monday.

MetService forecaster Matt Ford said there were two tropical disturbances being monitored by the Fiji authorities.

A composite satellite image showing the ex-cyclone to the east of New Zealand. A tropical disturbance can be seen at top ...

A composite satellite image showing the ex-cyclone to the east of New Zealand. A tropical disturbance can be seen at top left; another tropical disturbance can be seen to the upper right.

"Neither of them are tropical cyclones at the moment but they are promising conditions.

Ad Feedback

"Possibly the one that is getting everybody's knickers in a twist is tropical disturbance 20F [near Fiji moving towards Vanuatu].

"There are no tropical cyclones. To the northeast of Vanuatu it looks like it will move towards Vanuatu and it's likely it will reach strength.

New Zealand on Friday in a satellite image.

New Zealand on Friday in a satellite image.

"What happens to it after...we're really talking about Easter weekend. This weekend it's likely to move across Vanuatu.

"Around Monday or Tuesday it's deciding what to do. There's quite a range of possibilities and outlooks at this time. We're looking at various computer models and guidelines. Those kinds of possible forecast outcomes can change.

"There are massive amounts of uncertainty when it moves out of the tropics.

A tropical disturbance near Fiji in the south Pacific on Friday. New Caledonia is near the centre.
Fiji Meteorological Service

A tropical disturbance near Fiji in the south Pacific on Friday. New Caledonia is near the centre.

"There's a possible scenario which brings it towards New Zealand. The story is what's going to happen to Vanuatu.

"We're keeping an eye on it next week."

Ford said there was another low pressure system moving across the Tasman towards New Zealand.

Edgecumbe flooded after ex-Cyclone Debbie merged with a low pressure system and dumped a month's worth of rain in a ...

Edgecumbe flooded after ex-Cyclone Debbie merged with a low pressure system and dumped a month's worth of rain in a couple of days.

This system was expected to bring some heavy rain next week.

The Fiji Meteorological Service tropical cyclone forecast largely echoes the New Zealand meteorologists.

Strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms are forecast for Niue over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says Auckland recorded the equivalent of normal April rainfall - 84.6mm - in 14 hours from Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.

Many parts of the country had two or three times the normal April monthly rainfall in just two or three days.

Hamilton had its second wettest start to any calendar year on record since 1907 with 537 mm of rain.

The torrent dumped 164mm of rain on Tauranga while Whakatane had its wettest April day on record since 1952.

Kaitaia has its second wettest start to any calendar year on record since 1948 with 567 mm.
Wellington Airport recorded 72 mm in one day between 9.00am Wednesday and 9.00am Thursday, making it the wettest day at the airport in almost a decade.
The Niwa forecast said the country was stuck in a pattern favouring low pressure systems to the west and sweeping high pressure to the south and east.

Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said another band of heavy rain was expected on Tuesday for the North Island and north and east of the South Island.

"Furthermore, a tropical disturbance north of Vanuatu is being monitored for strengthening over the weekend into early next week.

"There is some uncertainty regarding the eventual strength and track of the tropical system, although its progress will need to be watched closely as it could influence New Zealand's weather later next week," he said.

However, Philip Duncan, forecaster for Weather Watch, said looking at the international models, two tropical cyclones may be forming north of New Zealand next week.

He was fairly confident that one of these would not reach the New Zealand's shores, but the other might directly impact the North Island.

"That's the sort of disclaimer with a long-range forecast like this. The models can change, and they do change, and we're not locking this in yet."

An ex-cyclone would bring with it tropical moisture, and tropical instability, he said.

"The combined concern is that the Tasman low sucks down the cyclone and you end up with a bit of a double whammy, and that's a possibility."

Even though it's not a certainty, with rivers already full, and the ground saturated, Duncan said people might want to be prepared.

"The entire North Island is now wetter than average, and two months ago the entire North Island was in drought."

 - Stuff

Ad Feedback
special offers

Prison barbie canned

North Auckland's Paremoremo Prison cancelled a barbecue intended for some of its inmates with psychological and ...

The barbecue had been planned for some of Auckland Prison's most disturbed inmates.

Why are our cities stinking?

Land around the Piako River in Waikato flooded in early April.

First the flooding, then the warm weather. A perfect cocktail of conditions for stench, Niwa scientist says.

Memories in ink

Rebekah Henderson, 27, is waiting for a life-saving double lung transplant.

Before Rebekah Henderson gets a new pair of lungs, she wants to pay tribute to the friends she lost to the same illness.

Bashed with metal pipe

Luke White was attacked by seven window washers and required stitches for his injuries.

Group of window washers stole a brain-injured Auckland man's sunglasses then beat him with a copper pipe.


'I don't need 13 Reasons Why'

Aroha McKenzie lost her daughter, Jacinta, to suicide in 2015 and faces a real experience similar to the controversial ...

Aroha McKenzie's daughter committed suicide. She's written an open letter to her and explained why she's against "13 Reasons Why".

Karori hospital scam

A Google listing for the fictitious St Vincent Ranui Hospital, supposedly in the Wellington suburb of Karori.

Bogus hospital in Wellington suburb used to target foreign doctors wanting to work in NZ.

Congestion eases on SH1

Traffic heading north on the way into Paekakariki on Friday night.

Traffic is flowing freely again after long northbound delays on the Kapiti Coast.

Hotel closure hits wedding plans

The Amora Hotel in Wakefield St is to close for major renovation work.

Couple had venue booked and invitations sent when Amora announced closure.


Invercargill shootings: A tragic end

Verity and Ben McLean, pictured in 2016, during happier times.

The city has been rocked to its core after a love triangle turned fatal. Where did it all go wrong?

'Raids aren't games'

Liam Burrowes, 16, has been jailed for three years for two armed robberies of the Woolston Night n' Day store on Ferry ...

A teen will serve an adult jail sentence for two armed dairy raids that left his victim fearful and struggling to sleep.

Shooting victim's ex-All Black dad

A forensic tent at the Otepuni Ave address where Tuesday night's shooting took place.

Woman allegedly shot and killed by her cop husband was daughter of ex-AB Bob Barber.

Three-car crash closes lane

Two people were injured in a crash on Main South Rd and Curletts Rd.

Two people suffered moderate injuries after a crash at a busy Christchurch intersection.


Ghost school to be demolished

The school has been unused for 13 years and will now be demolished - even derelict pool will go.

For 13 years it sat empty and derelict. Now, the school - with a rateable value of $2.54 million dollars - will be demolished.

Ref raids accounts

050711 NEWS. Robert Charles/Taranaki Daily News. Cheque/ cheque book. Money. Bank.

Colleagues blew the whistle on referee who swiped $13K and a video camera.

Health bosses eye prison growth

Waikeria Prison is earmarked to become the country's largest prison.

Growing inmate numbers and a new bill will test Waikato's health services.

Beach commute gets safer

NZTA central North Island regional Director Parekawhia Mclean and MP David Bennett on SH23.

Highway between Hamilton and Raglan is in line for $9m in safety improvements.


Kiwi dies in France

Beau St George, his fiancee Herminie Gouard  and their daughter, Joan.

The New Zealand man killed in car crash in France had Taranaki links and was weeks away from getting married.

McFarlane recovering

Long serving Waitara councillor Craig McFarlane is still recovering in hospital after suffering a stroke in February.

Council colleagues keen for deputy mayor to have time to recover

"Don't send me to jail"

A young man's heartfelt plea to a judge saw him receive home detention instead of jail for a raft of offences.

"I hate being in trouble and looking like a meat head, this behavior is not who I am," man tells judge.

Mystery pack 'rescued' 

An unusual search and rescue mission was launched on Mt Taranaki, after a backpack was left behind at Holly Hut.

A backpack left behind in a mountain hut had people thinking the worst.


Sculpture pops up in courtyard

28042017 News photo DAVID UNWIN/FAIRFAX NZ
New Dibble sculpture of couple of huia sitting on a perch.

Sculptor Paul Dibble's latest work was too big for its exhibition space - so it's now perched outside.

Arson a 'cry for help'

Scott Peter Bulman was sentenced at the Palmerston North District Court for arson.

A man committed arson so he would be locked up. The courts obliged.

Wrongfully convicted man dies

Palmerston North man David Dougherty, who was wrongfully accused of rape, has died.

David Dougherty, who was wrongfully convicted of rape and abduction, has died. 

Fire ravages home

Three people escaped from a fire at a house on Upham Tce in Palmerston North.

Three people escape a house fire in Roslyn, Palmerston North.


Crash upsets the apple cart video

A stretch of the Coastal Highway near the intersection of Pukeko Lane was strewn with apples and boxes after a truck's ...

Traffic delays continue after cruck carrying thousands of apples spills load.

Guilty of murder

Philip Quayle died after being attacked on a street in Cairns, Australia, about 100 metres from home.

A man who choked a Nelson man to death during a random street attack in Cairns has been found guilty of murder.

Salisbury hopes with new minister

Salisbury School has been locked in a battle with the outgoing Education Minister since 2012.

Salisbury School hopes a change in Education Minister will help its case to stay open.

Eye check waiting list cut

The ophthalmology service at Nelson Marlborough Health has been remodelled which has cut the waiting list for those ...

A remodelled ophthalmology service has made big inroads in those needing sight checks.


A real Kaikoura 'cliffhanger' video

A digger working to clear SH1 near Kaikoura was buried by a slip.

Dramatic video shows a digger high up on a cliff face on the Kaikoura Coast, half-buried by a slip.

Air force keeps quiet

United States Air Force personnel in the Anzac parade on Tuesday.

Troops on the ground and planes in the sky, but little is known about US Air Force in Marlborough.

The lowdown

Co-owners Simone and Chris Hill with dog Sam

If you haven't yet popped into Cinnamon House Design in Blenheim, it's worth a visit.

The $500m quake bill

Road damage and closures was one of the big costs from the Kaikoura earthquakes.

The November earthquakes are expected to cost New Zealand around half a billion dollars.

South Canterbury

Parents remember 'talented' son

Rowan Yeager died following a crash near Lake Ohau on Anzac Day. This photo, supplied by friend Andrew Weatherall, shows ...

Man killed in crash near Lake Ohau was just a week off moving into house he built by hand.

Cleverley 'exonerated'

Former South Canterbury District Health Board chair Murray Cleverley has spoken out for the first time about his ...

Former SCDHB chair Murray Cleverley says decision to resign as chair was tough.

'We have got a lot of work to do'

SCDHB chief executive Nigel Trainor says the DHB is going try and improve low rates of HPV vaccination by providing more ...

SC has a 'poor' HPV vaccination rate, prompting the DHB to turn to social media.

Strong winds lash SC

Police were called to the scene of a camper van crash on Friday afternoon, thought to be caused by the wind.

Tourists escape with minor injuries after two campers blown off road south of Tekapo.


Shark attack video

The French tourist arrives at Dunedin Hospital by helicopter after she was attacked by a shark while bodyboarding in ...

A surfer has been attacked by a shark at a beach in the Catlins in Southland.

Struggle after shooting

Ben and Verity McLean.

Families say they're humbled by the outpouring of support and compassion.

Deputy mayor resigns

Cr Darren Ludlow.

Darren Ludlow has resigned as deputy mayor of Invercargill.

SDHB propose axing 23 jobs

Southern DHB chief executive Chris Fleming.

"There will be some people very positive about what we're proposing, and there will be some negativity."

Ad Feedback