So long, and thanks to the Brethren

Last updated 17:46 02/08/2008

UPDATE: John Key delivered probably the best speech I've heard from him - well structured, hit all the right notes, a good mixture of the more traditional National Party messages of hard work, self-responsibility and less government, and Key's own more centrist brand of "compassionate conservatism''.

And a lot of new policy, too, including details of infrastructure spending and the beginnings of what I imagine will become Key's "First 100 Days'' style plan during the election campaign.

Personally I wouldn't have chosen Jesus Jones' Right Here Right Now to walk into though - the song was a hit in Britain 17 years ago after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Were The Feelers busy?   

My only other criticism would be his delivery, which remains a work in progress to say the least. Key is not a clear speaker and does not enunciate as well as he should for someone in his position. But the party faithful didn't seem to care. 

Since the finish of the conference things have derailed a little for National, however, with the release of a tape of Bill English talking to a punter at the conference during which he talks of "Labour plus'' voters, explains the mechanics behind the decision not to scrap Working for Families, and most damagingly, says that "eventually'' National will probably sell Kiwi Bank.

There is no question that the tape is damaging for National. It will be played relentlessly by Labour during the campaign, and pointed to as evidence of National's "secret agenda'' and saying one thing and doing another. Even though English was actually saying nothing more than the party policy (except in more colourful language) which is not to sell any state assets during its first term, it reopens the door for Labour to claim National is planning to sell them further down the track.

There are two lessons here. One is that there is a new front opening up in the dirty tricks war on both sides of the political divide - Mike Williams was also recorded secretly during Labour's conference. The second is that English must be more careful when opening his mouth. He wouldn't have made those comments to a journalist unless he had made absolutely sure they were off the record. Why would he share confidences with a person he didn't know or couldn't trust?

(Written earlier)

Day One of National's annual conference is nearly over and so far the biggest clanger has been departing Tauranga MP Bob Clarkson's thank-you to the Exclusive Brethren during his departing remarks to delegates.

There was some shocked silence and a few laughs but the look on president Judy Kirk's face was priceless. Suffice to say she was not amused.

But compared to previous National conferences that have involved leadership stoushes, MPs getting heavy with unwanted visitors, and even last year's announcement by Key that he planned to lead the Labour Party, National can be pretty satisfied with the way things have gone so far.

There has been less triumphalism than I expected. For a party 50 points-plus in the polls, National seems pretty much aware that winning is no foregone conclusion. Perhaps this is because after three defeats in a row, many have forgotten what winning feels like and are dead scared to even contemplate victory, let alone celebrate it early.

Both Key and deputy Bill English have also rolled their sleeves up and got stuck straight in. From Key's opening remarks this morning, when he announced National would keep Labour's tax cuts and add another lot in the same financial year next April, it was clear National meant business.

This contrasts, for me, with the Labour Party's election-year congress, which seemed to be about showcasing leader Helen Clark and avoiding any sensitive topic. And no protests here either, unlike those that have dogged Labour in recent years - probably due to the fact that it is the government rather than any particular dissatisfaction with the party, but it still can sure bring down the mood.

Mind you, what business National is planning is still a little unclear, given that English appears to be trying to both urge economic caution and at the same time prepare the electorate for taking on greater debt in order to afford the party's spending programme.

The message from the conference today was that "debt can be your friend" and that every sensible business uses "prudent'' debt management as a means of boosting growth rather than using petty cash to fund development.

This is another way of saying that it's OK to use the taxpayers of tomorrow to fund the spending plans of today. But of course that's what all governments do with infrastructure development. It's all the same pot of money, of course, but Labour is going to accuse National of borrowing for tax cuts nonetheless.

At least it now seems that National is prepared to have the argument, and with other spokespeople giving speeches in their portfolios today it does seem that at last the party is a little more comfortable in its own skin.

The only bum note, for me, was the "families forum'' half way through the day, which seemed more the product of a focus group's report on what National should cover off at its conference than any serious attempt to address an issue of substance.

"National trusts families'' said families spokeswoman Judith Collins, sitting in a cosy little fireside arrangement on the stage alongside John Key, Paula Bennett, and Anne Tolley. She also said National supported and believed in families. Well, great. Name a politician or a party that does not support families.

It seemed awfully close to an attempt to grab some of the Family First-style morals campaign vote, although National hastens to claim this is not true.

Besides that, a disciplined, well-structured day that National will be pretty pleased with. And John Key's main speech still to come tomorrow.

72 comments
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Adolf Fiinkensein   #1   07:11 pm Aug 02 2008

Did the fools in charge of catering finally get around to providing some decent tucker for the press?

Oh yeah, do you have to endure evening speeches or will you get to watch a bet of rugby?

ak   #2   08:01 pm Aug 02 2008

Beautiful Colin, the new tory mantra: <em>‘debt can be your friend’</em>

ahhh...sweet nectar of the comic gods of vengance.... the "party of business" that has railed with pious bombast for decades against the "reckless spendthrift socialists", now forced by the venality of its own blatant "tax cut" vote bribe of 2005 to argue in favour of the very mortgage and credit card millstones that daily assail the base securities of voters.

Kiwis won't be fooled: they recognise all too well the folly of mortgaging the house to pay for increased piss and pocket money.

What a turnip for the books: Labour the party of fiscal prudence and moderation versus Slippery and the hollow loan sharks. to quote that other well-known philosopher (Simpson, B): "The ironing is delicious".

peppermint pattie   #3   08:29 pm Aug 02 2008

Hey AK, I think you mean a "turn up for the books" not a turnip.

Tony W   #4   08:44 pm Aug 02 2008

Colin Colin

Interesting to read your post and your comparisons between the Labour and National conferences.

How did the mix of delegate look in terms of ethnic and age diversity? Apparently Labour's had a good representation of Indian, Chinese Maori and Pacific Islanders and young delegates. On this evening's news the brief camera angles showed a dominance of older, white people. But maybe this was not the case. I would be interested to hear your assessment, as it's often a good pointer to the type of party at grassroots level as well as the future propspects beyond just one election.

Interesting that apart from Key - the 90's group - English, Ryall, Nick Smith, Williamson, McCully, Lockwood Smith, Carter and Henarae seem to still be in the ascendancy. And Heffernern the candidadte is apparently the same Terry Heffernern that has been around (in other parties) for years. I guess with a big National win likey he will be in Parliament soon. Extraordinary.

sean   #5   10:58 pm Aug 02 2008

Turn it up AK - fiscally prudent my bloody arse mate - there isn't a cent left in the coffers even though we've had $40 billion in surpluses over the last few years.

eddie   #6   11:08 pm Aug 02 2008

peppermint Pattie.....no, AK was right on the money using the word 'Turnip", as this was a freudian slip, Labour are indeed all vegetables and sitting underground and not realising the voting public are wanting them out...

frew   #7   02:55 am Aug 03 2008

Tony W, You mention that National has a white, male dominated member base. While this is true, Labour certainly are not perfect either. By looking at their membership, you will find most of them are unionists. Almost all of their mps are unionists or academics. Virtually none of them have made it in the real world. National certainly don't have a balanced membership, neither do Labour. It just isn't as obvious.

One other thing, Labour will attack National for borrowing. They will say that borrowing is evil, why should our children pay for something today. Interestingly, Labour also borrows. All National is planning to do is increase borrowing to pay for items that will benefit future generations, like new roads, power plants and high speed internet. It makes no sense why I should pay for all of this even though it will benefit my grandkids. I wonder what line Labour will take to this borrowing. That all borrowing is bad or that National's borrowing is bad. I suspect the former. Interstingly, NZ's level of borrowing is one of the lowest in the OCED, and our wealth is too.

bobux   #8   05:32 am Aug 03 2008

Tony W

A few minutes on Google provides the following information on our current leaders

Helen Clark, white, born 1950 Michael Cullen, white, born 1945 Jim Anderton, white, born 1938 Phil Goff, white, born 1953 Annette King, white, dental nurse since 1967, so presumably born ~1950 Pete Hodgson, white, born 1950 Parekura Horomia, Maori, born 1950

And so on. You might like to think about this before commenting on "the dominance of older, white people" in National.

Kiwibloke   #9   07:31 am Aug 03 2008

The latest Ray Morgan poll result makes interesting reading. The gap between the Nats and Labour has narrowed, and Labour has more potential coalition allies than National in the Greens, NZ First, United Future &amp; even the Maori Party, while all there is on the right is ACT. My prediction is National will be the largest party in Parliament after the election, but the Maori Party will clean sweep the Maori seats, which will result in an "overhang" of seats, which will make it harder for the Nats to put together a majority.

Sheelagh   #10   08:24 am Aug 03 2008

AK

You are right. New Zealanders won't be fooled . Why do you think National is still way ahead in the polls? Mr and Mrs Joe Average are sick and tired of seeing their hard earned money going into houses (not homes) like the Kahuis'.

On the radio this morning I hear that Annette King said that National is not aware of what's going on around them or overseas.Excuse me, but with her saying that, doesn't it show that with the polls going against her and her party it certainly doesn't seem that National is the party that is out of step?


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