Second thoughts on the ETS
One of the prerogatives of being a political editor - nay, one of the requirements - is the ability to change one's mind. And having a blog makes it so much easier as well.
As the saga of the Emissions Trading Scheme has continued to play out over this week, I'd like to reserve my opinion on just how "astute'' National's politics have been on all of this.
For when I wrote my last blog, I was (perhaps foolishly on my part) accepting National's word that what we saw was what we got. However, it now appears that is a long way from the truth.
It now turns out, thanks to the honesty (as always) of the Maori Party, that National has made promises far in excess of anything we were told at Monday's post-Cabinet press conference, in return for the Maori Party's votes on changing the ETS.
This is interesting, because those of us in the press gallery of a sceptical bent (i.e. all of us) repeatedly asked ourselves - and John Key - what had made the Maori Party change its mind on the ETS within the space of a fortnight, from issuing a damning minority report condemning National's changes to supporting them.
We were told by Key on Monday that Maori had plenty to gain under the new ETS - for starters, many iwi had extensive forestry, farming and fishing assets, and stood to gain from the new phase-in period and the two-for-one deal being offered on carbon credits.
Plus, Key pointed out, iwi had approached the Maori Party telling them that they stood to gain handsomely from an ETS and didn't want the whole carbon market falling over just because National couldn't find enough votes in Parliament.
Fair enough, I thought. Sounds reasonable.
Except that it wasn't. What we weren't told until Sharples mentioned it yesterday was that National has agreed to fully fund the insulation of some 2000 Maori homes in return for the Maori Party's support.
Not only that, but the 1997 Ngai Tahu Treaty settlement is also back on the table, with the Maori Party appearing to have won National's concession that it relitigate the value of the forests Ngai Tahu bought from the Crown in 2002. The tribe argues it's owed around $100 million, but until now successive governments have refused to entertain the claim.
On top of all that, it seems like the Maori Party thought it had also won an increase in the benefit for its constituents, but it turns out it got confused about the CPI increase that occurs every year.
Whatever. The public weren't told about these negotiations by the Government. And it appears it's still a moving feast. We still don't know how much we're up for in insulation, or what we'll have to pay Ngai Tahu.
And of course the Government won't be able to fund only Maori home insulation without being accused of racism, and so it's going to have to match whatever it gives the Maori Party with fully funded home insulation for other low-income New Zealanders as well.
So far from being a nicely arranged done deal, this is starting to look like policy on the hoof. The price of Maori Party support is rising, and I'm wondering whether it's worth it, given the alternative of doing a deal with Labour.
Here's the problem as I see it. Even if the deal with the Maori Party goes through, Labour is threatening to overturn the scheme if - I guess when - they return to government. Even if that's not for six years, that's a short amount of time in the overall scheme of the ETS.
Business hates uncertainty, and the last thing big emitters want to worry about is organising themselves into a scheme only to find it's going to be changed again in a few years' time.
Actually I think Labour is beginning to worry about this as well. I don't think Labour really wants to be offside with big business on this. It doesn't want some of the country's biggest employers campaigning against it in three years' time either.
Given how big this issue is, I'm starting to think it behoves both National and Labour to come to a bipartisan agreement on this, rather than hand out sweetheart deals to the Maori Party that will at best result in the narrowest of margins for the legislation.
I think National also risks a backlash from its supporters if they perceive that Maori are getting an unfair advantage as well. Key is kidding himself if he thinks that latent resentment has gone away.
A week is a long time in politics, and as things change on this rapidly moving story I'm happy to admit that what looked astute on Monday is now starting to look like an unholy mess.
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er ... wait, what?
Since when could you assume that "what you saw is what you got" with the National Party?
I'm a committed right-winger, but even I don't expect National to keep their promises and not ambush us with some arrogant betrayals of their core constituents (let alone the rest of New Zealand).
"What you saw is what you got" is THE antithesis of National's approach to policy-making.
CE, I was waiting for this follow up blog.
I'm not surprised that's happened and quite frankly, it probably says more about how 'astute' National is...NOT VERY.
The back tracking at the moment just proves how naive National is about issue management. Peter Sharples could easily be seen as a lack of political nous and this will probably - in the end - be costly for National.
PS. Hope you enjoyed Samoa.
I'm really glad you are big enough to write such a post. Pity National cannot be this honest with the public.
Is this just another case of Key telling the parties what they want to hear, making the deal, and being economical with the truth and consequences?
The price of this deal seems to be getting bigger by the day. So is the amount of humble pie Key has to eat if it unravels.
Well done Colin...at last reading like a perceptive investigating journalist and not just an apologist for John Key...who's been lying yet again - first denying/covering the extra dealings and then saying the Insulation concessions were for all NZ'ers in specific working class areas ! Porkies. But what's this about a 2 for 1 deal for Maori on Carbon Credits ( will be a huge handout ? ).....and re-negotiating with Ngae Tahu ??!! More nightmares - and they'll probably try to rename half the South Island while they're at it. Mt Cook wasn't enough - had to be Aoraki/Mt Cook with the aki part first.
And while the Maori Separatist Party ( separate flag, subtitles, language, TV programs and station, prisons, courts, education, forests, sections of beach and sea, compulsory hakas 24/7 etc etc ) are fairly candid, the bottom line is that they're in the business of Prostitution....as opposed to Sex Working .....where bottom lines become more critical. They will go with whoever pays them the most. The gains they've bled out of National already are alarming and if this becomes a contest in bribery - with Labour joining in - then we'll have national chaos by the next election. Key figures he's doing enough to pay off the Maori Party and win the next election - after which much of the country will be sold overseas. Kiwibank already has had policy change and now just been merged with huge Yankee finance company GE finance ! And they haven't even been in for a year yet, while saying ' We won't sell Kiwibank'....after Bill English said at a party that they would !
Forget the aspirational, striving for greater things bla bla bla garbage. This is dishonest and naked wheeling and dealing.....with clothes on ( except during the optional Sex Working....now fully endorsed and legal ). It's hard to strive for greater returns when the country's been sold and the profits and control go overseas. Time for mainstream Maori commentators like Ron Mark and Winston Peters ( Colin's friend ) to talk about the so called 'Maori Party' and where this is all going ? Long live Wanganui, pronounced with a guttural W, as it should be.
Colin - I don't know why National is even bothered with this ETS crap. They should be bold enought to scrap this and say, we will do our part when the biggest polluters on earth - USA, China and India come up with a plan to reduce green house gas emissions.
We are already dealing with the emissions from Goff and on top of this - ETS. Get on with some wealth generating schemes.
Jeez, would have been a few blankets and muskets not so long ago. Thats the price of progress I suppose. Jokes aside, its still going to cost half what Labour had us committed to, and some bribes to get it through without input from Labour is worth it. Would rather JK had been up front about what they were.
While it seems that a bipartisan approach would give more certainty, there is still no guarantee that a future government would not alter the policy citing "changing circumstances". One could argue that a partisan approach is actually better as voters can determine at each election which policy they prefer. But I agree that the worst is the case we have here where the policy is sold to the highest/lowest bidder.
Interesting too that Labour now argues so fervently for a bipartisan approach, when they had no such moral fortitude when developing the original ETS only last year...
Cullen's Sidekick #6
Absolutely right. ETS is total waste of time and the only thing it will achieve is creating a whole pile more bureaucrats. Time for NZ to generate wealth again after the last lot let the economy stall
Surprised the spin doctors haven't been out stating 'Not only is our version of ETS keeping jobs in NZ, it is creating jobs by putting insulation in 2000 homes'
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Agreed on the level of honesty from the Maori Party. They understand the value of integrity in a way most parties cannot begin to approach. Turia was the one suggesting a change in unemployment benefit earlier on - ie work for the dole. They clearly are used to saying it as it is to their own people, and this is reflected in their communications to the community as a whole. Pita Sharples continues to grow in stature as leader in this country. It is good for National to work along side him and learn from his practice.