What, me worry? John Key sails on
TV3's poll last night will surely have set Labour back on its heels.
After a difficult winter, the recession, several errant ministers, a sacking, the ACC debacle and the ongoing saga over Maori TV, National is more popular than ever.
It seems hard to believe National is really polling 59.9 per cent - let's call it 60 - in fact I think National itself wouldn't believe its polling was really that high. That's beyond-your-wildest-dreams stuff.
Labour, meanwhile, is going backwards, down to 27.2 per cent support.
What makes it doubly unbelievable is that TV3's pollster is usually the kindest to Labour and pretty conservative on National's support.
I noticed that TV3 now calls it the Reid Research poll and not TNS and I wondered whether there was an explanation in a different polling company or methodology, but Duncan Garner from TV3 assures me it's basically the same outfit and the same pollster running things, and that the methodology hasn't changed.
The explanation, I think, lies in the preferred prime minister rankings, where John Key is a stratospheric 55.8 (the highest he's been in that poll) while Phil Goff has slumped all the way to 4.7 per cent - half the level he was in April in this poll.
And when you drill down to the questions about the personal traits of the two leaders, you see that while a majority think Goff is down-to-earth and understands the economy, he lags behind Key in both respects.
Goff does even worse on a question about personality, scoring just 26 per cent to Key's 72 per cent. Funnily enough, Goff also scores worse on inexperience, which is ironic given he's been in Parliament five times as long as Key.
I pretty much agree with Duncan on what this poll shows - voters are generally satisfied with National and they think Key in particular is a friendly, personable, competent chap who's doing a good job. They really can't see anyone else in the frame.
The only silver lining for Labour, perhaps, is that the TV3 poll finished up last Wednesday, and therefore didn't take in all the ACC and MTS drama of the last week. I doubt the MTS stuff will have shifted many votes, despite the underhand and duplicitous behaviour of some National ministers.
But the ACC stuff might do, I think. Our letters page in The Press has been swamped with angry punters - motorcyclists, sexual abuse victims, and those furious with ACC Minister Nick Smith for trivialising suicide with his "find myself a train to throw myself under'' comment.
The ACC changes also hit the average voter in the back pocket, which always shifts a few opinions.
But with such political capital in the bank, National really doesn't have to worry if it burns off a few voters. Its poll ratings make Labour's initial honeymoon back in 2000-2001 look positively stormy.
As Helen Clark did with Labour before him, John Key's personal popularity is carrying National through an otherwise difficult time.
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So are you going to retract your claim ACC privatisation was a "conspiracy theory"? http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/2973384/ACC-may-open-to-competition
I like John Key and voted for him, but now I wonder if he's just a bit too nice. I was hoping a tougher side would come out and make some big changes where needed, based on what's good for the country rather than keeping people happy. I suspect there is no tough side to him, which I believe any PM should have (that probably accounts for people doubting Phil Goff's capabilities). Wonder what will bring out the 'mongrel' in him?
Sorry Kiwis - Since Colin has opened a new blog, I am posting this again.
Sidekick’s IQ Test for Labourers
Kiwis, here is an IQ test I have designed for our party members. Only a sample of five questions has been given here. Rest in party website.
*** Warning to right wingers of this blog *** Please do not attempt this Quiz as this will reduce your IQ
1. The Labourer term “Let us have a BBQ” has the same meaning as: (a) Let us have a hot “dog” (b) Let us have fun in the sun (c) Let us roll over Fill Gap (d) Let us worship our dear leader
2. When you see the number 4.7, it signifies (a) ACC premium rise planned by Kick Smith (b) Fill Gap’s soaring popularity figure (c) Annual CPI increase (d) Tax hike planned for rich pricks after 2011 Labour victory
3. When you see the number 33, it signifies (a) The tax rich pricks used to pay before April 1, 2000 (b) The gap between Labourers and National (c) The age of Aunty King (d) The number of years before Labourers will win again
4. The sure way to topple Emperor from his lofty heights is to: (a) Get Mike Smith to dig dirt (b) Bring back Dear Leader (c) Request All Blacks to lose 2011 Rugby World Cup (d) Setup secret recording devices under the cabinet table
5. To lift Labour’s poll rating, we should: (a) Roll over Fill Gap (b) Merge with Greens and call the party “Labreens” (c) Appoint Jumbo as the Labour Leader (d) Sing “Take Me Home” in the house
I see Goff is using the 'Honeymoon' excuse as to why labour are under 30%, it's been best part of a year in Govt for Key/National now....I wonder at what stage Goff will realise the truth? Once the knife in the back hits him, or the secret meetings he knows nothing about as number crunching starts....how delicious.
Personally I hope Goff stays as he is good for National/Key :), in saying that though, who would/could replace him that would actually make the public sit up and notice and raise Labours poll rating?
KiwiKraut #3 Headline - KiwiKraut wakes up to the fact he voted Labour Lite. Key has no spine, no ideas - what did you expect.
I don't know which planet Monsuier Goff is from, but I want to be on it. Imagine taking a 10 month holiday after getting married - sweet!
I had to laugh when I read Phil Goff say it won't be long before the gloss wears off John Key. The problem is the gloss wore off Phil Goff years and years ago.
The fact that those polled gave Key a higher rating than Goff on "experience" is due to the fact that most people see Key as having good "real life" experience, rather than parliamentary experience.
Usually having a lot of experience is seen as a good thing, but in politics having years of experience (as Phil Goff has) can be seen as being out of touch with "the real world" and "real people". Whether that is true is a moot point, that is the perception with the public.
Thanks again Cullens sidekick for proving that there is no such thing as a decent tory!
Mike #6 You found me out and bow to your superior wit. You're right, it's Labour that has all the ideas, no other party has any. Also, they have the best man for the job. That's why they won the election and that's why Phil Goff, spine of steel, is at the helm of this great country, guiding us into a glorious future with steely determination, steady hands and, more importantly, great vision. God help us should he ever quit. This country will be lost.
What is really a worry for Labour is that it may not get any traction with the electorate until it has a generational change at the top, to get rid of Goff, Mallard, King and all the others still living the 1981 Springbok tour. But what is even more of a worry for them is that National is already doing the same, John Key is merely the leading example of that. Watch for English, Brownlee and other old stagers from National to be gone within the term of this parliament and the likes of Power, Joyce and others will be high ranking members of the National cabinet at the next election and will be able to trot out the line that Goff, Mallard and King and company are tired old has-beens from the 20th century and the rapidly diminishing aura of the Clark era.