Flawed analysis as usual, Colin. Mind, you guys shape public opinion so I guess you and your unelected comrades will decide what the public do next year. It's kind of corrupt, really. But that's the way it is. Have a lovely, long, relaxing break after a year of tory propaganising, and come back refreshed for another year of the same. No 'block of cheese' budget in 2010, I bet.

Unfortunately for the 'eddies' et al the Key lot are on the way down. As you say Colin Goff can take heart, the people of NZ will eventually gravitate towards the 'honest and straight forward'. The demographic make up of the broad electorate will also favour Goff. It will be very interesting this time next year as the lights really start to dim on the Key sideshow.

Dear John Here's something to ponder on the plane while eating danish pastry. I voted for you because you pitched yourself as a person who could implement a big vision. You certainly aren't a career politician like most your colleagues or opponents, so there can be no other reason for wanting to be PM. It turns out you haven't really got a vision for us. So far, it's all small town stuff. Village politics. Huntly scout Hall. Your strategy is to try and make everybody happy. That's weak! If you carry on like this, your legacy will be, well none! Just like your predecessor. She's famous for her airbrushed photos, that's it. You'll be famous for that well-rehearshed smile. But did either of you fix the tax system? Nope. Is there a fantastic waterfront stadium? Nope. Did you create One New Zealand by getting rid of all race-based seats? Nope. Did you stick the finger at the phoney climate science until there's some concrete proof? Nope. Is life cheaper or much better than before in NZ? Nope. When you return from the Big Air Con Show, look down on NZ and have a good think about what you could set out to achieve that we can all look back on one day. Maybe a Govt that only employs 5 percent of NZ, not 95. That sort of thing. Happy landings.

As you say - breathing space. The right wing race card worked wonders, you may not think so, but obviously "joe public" does.

It will be pleasing for Labour that they have not self destructed, as they could have done, since the election, and are polling a steady 30% mark or thereabouts - so it is a healthy base to work from. National will be pleased as well, but they have to be careful not to get too arrogant and take the continued high poll ratings for granted which is what they could be inclined to do ; as an example, the Minister of Education's threat to mass sack Boards of Trustees (who are voted in by members of that schools community) because they express some disquiet over the national standards test - taking high poll ratings and approval rates for granted is a dangerous step for any government (the previous Labour led government is a good example)

With the score at 47-nil to the All Blacks, against the run of play the opposing captain manages a quick drop goal.

"The All Blacks better watch out", cry the few opposition fans in the crowd. "We're on our way now. Only nine converted tries and we'll be in front.."

I thought Garners poll on Goff's speech was ridiculous. They asked 1000 random people what they thought his speech given to Grey Power. I'd like to ask him how many of the people queried were actually in attendance to hear the speech, most likely 0, and how many people saw more than the 4 second clip screened on 3 News entirely out of context? How can you form a valid opinion on that? You can't. It's scary how much control the media has over peoples political opinions.

As Colin says, politics is a long game, but Two-Term John doesn't have to concern himself with that. Kiwikraut #3 "Concrete proof" would definitely be phoney science; all science is ever going to offer you are varying degrees of certainty. To put it another way: your phoney condition is a fraud. The long term problem for National is that its policies, where they differ from Labour's, are either junk (their education policy, for example, is little more than a mediocre deputy mayoral hunch) or deeply unpopular (we've had enough of you selling our assets to your clients).

The TV3 poll now backs other polls and bring them all pretty much into alignment, their previous poll just looked too good for Key and the Nats. Bit like climate change data, adjust the base line-make the swing look large-generate a headline-job done. Goffs playing of the race card may give him a boost from one section of NZ but will toast another section. It was a very strange thing for him to do and not sure who was advising him but a "Nationhood" speech to the audience he chose just smacked of personal desperation at the expense of the country. Always thought Goff had a bit more principle about him.

Kat #2 Get off your knees and stop praying for a miracle, it's getting embarrasing for everyone watching....I too can cherry pick snapshots of Colins blog.."Overall Key and National remain miles ahead, and you'd have to be pleased if you were Key that the Government ends the year in no worse a position than it started it, particularly after the recession" Kinda sums it up really Kat...still 'Roll on 2011" is it Kat?, wonder if you mumble that in your sleep?...or are people still laughing at you believing Goff will be PM in 2011?