Beware false profits
Feeling any richer today? You ought to be.
According to Treasury, the big financial hole Finance Minister Bill English has been wringing his hands over for the past year is less than half as big as we thought.
That's right, the Half-Year Fiscal Update yesterday revealed that the amount of money sucked out of the economy by the Great Recession is only $23 billion, not $50 billion.
Not that English is very impressed. A hole is a hole is a hole, Eeyore mused. You can still fall in, or trip flat on your face.
But there's no getting away from the fact that the Hefu painted a brighter picture of the state of the economy than anyone (except English) expected. Certainly given the rhetoric from the finance minister of late I'd thought the numbers would be worse than the Budget, not better.
By almost any measure, we're doing a lot better than we had been given to expect. The economy didn't contract nearly as much as predicted, unemployment is only about half what was projected, debt hasn't gone up as much as was thought, growth is kicking in earlier than we were told, and the tax take - a pretty good measure of the health of business - is projected to rise.
Of course we're not out of the woods yet, as English was quick to reinforce at the Treasury lockup yesterday. But I would have thought the finance minister would have been a little more chipper.
Instead English's demeanour was more like that of a condemned man who, despite having his hanging commuted, was still complaining about his life sentence.
Partly that's his southern charm and natural caution. Beware false prophets and all that - or in English's case, false profits.
But I also wonder whether a brightening economy doesn't suit English's political objectives right now.
No sooner was he sharpening up the axe to give the public sector a damn good cutting, and softening the public up for some relatively major financial reform, than the darn economy goes and shows signs of life.
It's much easier to make relatively radical change in times of hardship than prosperity.
I'm not saying English wants the economy to bomb - just that he'd prefer that it improved after he'd implemented his plans, not beforehand.
John Key, on the other hand, was as pleased as punch. He'd been saying for most of the year that things weren't going to be as bad as predicted, and he's been proved right. Whether it was a lucky guess is a moot point.
As for Labour, the uptick leaves it in a very awkward position. It can hardly not welcome it, but it doesn't want to give National the credit for it. Finance spokesman David Cunliffe argued it was the result of Labour's sound economic stewardship, which was par for the course.
But what was a stretch was claiming National should allow ordinary Kiwis to "share the dividend'' from the recovery when Labour for years refused tax cuts even when sitting on an enormous surplus.
We're still in debt, remember, it's just that the debt isn't quite as big as we thought.
The report of the Capital Markets Taskforce this morning was food for thought. Partial asset sales should give the sharemarket and the economy in general a lift. It makes sense on so many levels, but the question is whether or not it's politically tenable.
National hasn't dared go near asset sales since Bill English proposed the idea of partial floats on TVNZ's Agenda programme before the last election. He went down in a hail of bullets.
The Government can't do anything in its first term because it promised it wouldn't sell any state assets. But it should put it on the table for debate ahead of the next election.
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Colin, what a bizarre piece. On the one hand, Key is pleased as punch when what he knew to be a beat up turned out to be correct, and gets praised for it. On the other hand, Cunliffe is denigrated for not wanting to give the tories credit - for what everyone including Key already knew and was not of their making anyhow - and is dismissed for pointing out the books were in good shape when they left office - when this is clearly a fact. Hopefully, after a nice long break, your objectivity might resurface.
"a hole is a hole is a hole"
The first law of holes is-stop digging.No payouts to public service or beneficeries.
"National hasn't dared go near asset sales since Bill English proposed the idea of partial floats on TVNZ's Agenda programme before the last election. He went down in a hail of bullets."
Exactly. New Zealand is paying the heavy price for having an economically stupidly illiterate population. And the MSM bears a lot of responsibility for that conditions.
Betcha under the incompetent tenure of the foolish Cullen and the hawkish Clarke this recovery would not be taking place....they would be driving us further toward African-dictatorship third world status.....again we must be pleased for having English and Key at the helm.....the dream team for NZ.....
Jennifer
Grow up. Are you ten? Colin writes from the most objective perspective of any writer I have seen in the NZ media.
Your comments seem to be on a par with richardright for intellectual thought sometimes.
And no, I am not a tory.
Cunliffe has a very short memory and has not yet got over that fatal Labour tenedency to chuck our money around. When he doesn't even seem to realise we are still in debt up to our eyeballs how can he be taken seriously on fiscal matters. And that performance at the select committee!
Colin - I suspect you are on the button when Jennifer accuses you of being 'bizarre'.
Jennifer #2, the future path of the recession was far from clear when Key made his call. Whether it was perceptive or merely political jaw-boning we will probably never know. However, his decision to hold tight on spending rather than throw good money after Labour's bad was correct.
Again the mantra about flogging off profit producing assets owned by the NZ public (not the government despite the SOE nomenclature). At a time when the economy needs as much return in profits as it can get so that the government can keep taxes lower and keep spending on public services at an acceptable level, along comes the "Market Forces" brigade who want to mop up the profits for themselves and pile the costs back on the taxpayers. Again, once these profits centres are privitised they wind up being exported overseas, taxes on the profits miraculously remain minimal due to accountancy machinations, and the NZ public is left with a pittance in return. The only option for privatising any parts of a SOE that I would support would be for prospective shareholders to be permenant residents at minimum, and that shareholdings are not allowed to be sold to overseas interests, be that individuals or companies.
Anyone who says that National didn't win the last election on the false and vacuous promise of tax cuts is simply not being honest.
At the time of the last election campaign, week after week the burning question was, "When was National going to release the details of its election-winning tax cuts (bribe). Week after week, other policy was dismissed as one-page/Friday afternoon, superficial and populist drivel.
" But what was a stretch was claiming National should allow ordinary Kiwis to "share the dividend'' from the recovery when Labour for years refused tax cuts even when sitting on an enormous surplus ", the blog states.
Come on ! At least, be fair !! Cunliffe has not suggested anything as birdbrained as tax cuts. When are the voters going to realise that tax cuts was National's out-and-out con ?
No other administration in the Western world is lowering personal income tax to a flat 20 - 25%. The top-income decile in New Zealand is paying 40% of the taxation simply because they are earning so much in comparison to others - we have one of the widest income gaps in the world.
Bill English knows full well that no matter what you might do with your tax cut, or what I might do with mine, the net result is leveraged borrowing, balance of payments blowout and exacerbated debt. Perhaps Treasury's improved outlook was the reason why Transmission Gully was given the go-ahead after years of being in the pie-in-the-sky basket (in addition to being Peter Dunne's backhander) ?
National's tax cut promise was the mother-of-all election campaign hoaxes, and to be giving them would be cutting off its nose to spite (or save) its face.
When are most voters going to wake up to the fact that there is an ongoing con, and that any talk of new or hidden alternatives to income tax was never mentioned during the election campaign.
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It was never going to be as dire as Treasury made out and when do they ever even come close to getting it right. I hope they partially privatise some of the SOEs and NZ is pretty unique in not allowing it, no doubt because it was stuffed up last time around and we love to talk about the 87 crash or springbok tour or some other piece of ancient history. You can buy SOE debt which is publicly listed why on earth cant we buy shares as well. NZ has a severe lack of investment opportunities and I for one would love to buy some share in Meredian ( be less painful when the power bill arrives).