Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

PAUL GORMAN
Last updated 05:00 31/05/2011

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Canterbury has a nearly one-in-four chance of a third major earthquake of up to magnitude-7.0 during the next year, officials have been warned.

The forecast from Government research agency GNS Science for those charged with helping rebuild the damaged region will come as news to the public, who are still waiting to find out what scientists have discovered below Christchurch and the Canterbury Plains.

Christchurch City councillors and community board members were told of the risk of another large quake at a meeting of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera), chaired by Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee, last Wednesday night.

Incoming Cera chief executive Roger Sutton said his advice from GNS Science was for:

A 23 per cent chance of a magnitude-6.0 to 7.0 quake in the next year, dropping to a 10 per cent risk the following year.

More than 90 per cent chance of a magnitude-5.0 to 6.0 shake in the next 12 months, falling to more than a 70 per cent chance in the following year.

Those figures might not have seen the light of day for at least another couple of weeks if Cr Sue Wells had not included them in her blog at the weekend.

"It's now thought that we are looking at a longer-term seismic series," she said in her blog.

"Nobody was able to answer questions about Mercalli scale or G-force [gravitational acceleration] or depth, so you can take those figures for what they're worth. What we are seemingly certain of is that you shouldn't put your Blu-Tack away just yet."

Wells told The Press yesterday it was made clear at the meeting they could share the forecast figures with the community.

At the start of February, GNS Science said there was a 25 per cent chance of an aftershock of magnitude 6.0 or more affecting Christchurch or Canterbury during the next year.

Only three weeks later, the magnitude-6.3 quake at 12.51pm on February 22 killed 182 people and caused massive damage.

Nobody died in the September 4 magnitude-7.1 quake, which ripped open a 30-kilometre gash across the Canterbury Plains between Hororata and Rolleston.

One focus for researchers over the past month has been the aftershock-rich "gap" between the eastern end of the Greendale Fault and the western end of the Port Hills Fault.

Scientists want to know what is going on between the two, with some concerned that any faults in the gap may rupture and link the two bigger faults.

GNS Science spokesman John Callan confirmed the figures given to Cera and councillors were calculated by hazards modeller Dr Matthew Gerstenberger at the Crown research institute.

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Callan said it was important to remember the figures related not just to Christchurch but the whole Canterbury aftershock zone, from Sheffield in the west to Rangiora in the north, Lincoln in the south and across Banks Peninsula.

Gerstenberger said the longer-period aftershock forecasts given to Cera were based on earlier projections and used the same computer model that calculated possible quakes over the next few weeks.

The GeoNet website is predicting between one and 10 quakes of magnitude 4.0 to 4.9, and zero to two of magnitude 5.0 and above, in the period from May 19 and June 18.

- © Fairfax NZ News

241 comments
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Lleuadci   #241   01:33 pm Jan 06 2012

There is a great deal of difference between astrology and astronomy Graham. Gravity isn't restricted to earth.

AJ   #240   11:33 pm Jun 02 2011

Don't worry, all you normal, sane people who know that mr. ring (no capital on purpose, that shows respect) is a fraud, mr. ring has a wee cult of followers who refer to themselves as retards!

They abuse people who don't believe their wonderful leader and all have shocking spelling too! Unfortunately they've hijacked this article, which is what they do on facebook also.

PLEASE, MEDIA, do not give this man or his 'retards' air time, it's what they're screaming out for.

Stu   #239   09:44 am Jun 02 2011

Graham #229, Ken Ring is not an astrologer, he has repeatedly said he has never done anyone's horoscope in his life. As far as I can see Ring uses science and cycles to come up with accurate predictions. Astronomers and geologists also use cycles, but meteorologists and siesmologists do not. Isn't that the problem, that science has stopped looking for truth and has settled for scaremongering because research funding based on alarmism that suits the politicians' taxgrab pays the bills? What is it about the moon and sun and their cycles that is not science?

bryan   #238   07:36 am Jun 02 2011

well the end is high so prehaps we need to build another ark, they didn't listen then and we are no differant,and you know what thats exactly what God predicted a long time ago " as it was in the days of Noah so will it be in the days of the coming of the "Son of Man", we will be marrying, drinking, sinning and not listening,and when the event happens cry "why won't you let us in " gosh that sounds very close to home eh.we are not in control and never have been, but in our conceited pride we think we are the centre of the universe, having just watch space and the shuttle return yesterday we are not, but this earth still looks very wonderful from up there and we shall come through if we simply trust and live by faith,every day and wow its exciting. If we knew all that was going to happen how boring it would be, its the unexpected that adds the spice to life.have a great day and grasp it with both hands and enjoy the unexpected.

Aye Lad   #237   04:28 am Jun 02 2011

I left Christchurch after the 1st quake and Im glad I did. I cant understand why anyone wants to live there anymore in an earthquake region. How about your young families and what can happen to them. I say get out while you have a chance before another big one hits, we never know what time of day or night it will happen. Think about your childrens children, maybe within the next year maybe not... whats the percentage it will happen in the next 50-100 years...100%???

CT   #236   10:58 pm Jun 01 2011

Why can't people realize this isn't a prediction, they are showing statistics based on both the history of our quakes here and world wide. They are not saying on this particular date bend over and kiss your arse good by. Their stats are far more accurate that some idiot who says its going happen on this day and time.

I suffer anxiety and stress from both the quakes and funny thing is I have been following the information on Geonet and have see the stats on how many 3-4-5 MAG AFTERSHOCKS usually follow a earthquake of the magnitudes we have had and they are pretty bang on. In fact if we have gone a few days with out one over 3.0 I start to wonder if maybe we are due another good after shock (not earthquake)

I'm not concerned about the info that the press are putting out there because I have most this information already from their website.

I got in to more of a panic when sitting at my Dr's and seen it come on the morning news the way they made it sound was enough for me to come home and take and anxiety tablet. But once I realize it was information I had already had from Geonet I realized it was just the way the media had portrayed it

nick   #235   09:33 pm Jun 01 2011

how is it The government can find a law that forbids Ken Ring from predicting earthquakes because it is inciting fear but anyyone else who works for the government can say what eva...

Alan Wilkinson   #234   08:36 pm Jun 01 2011

Graham #229, you shouldn't try to explain anything to anyone until you know what you are talking about. Moon forces on the planetary surface are significant as shown by the tides. Such stresses are plausible triggers for earthquake fractures. Real scientists have therefore studied earthquake patterns to see if there is a correlation with these gravitational stresses due to moon/sun positions. They have found only a small effect, however it does exist. Your argument was simply an appeal to authority and has nothing to do with science.

I suspect the virulence of the attack on Ken Ring had nothing to do with science either. That is not to say that Ken Ring is "right" - merely that he is likely to be right a little more often than wrong.

Graham   #233   02:52 pm Jun 01 2011

I'll try and explain this to the gullible folk who believe Ken Ring. An astrologer says you have 25% chance of getting lung cancer because the moon is in aquarius. A Doctor says you have a 25% chance of getting lung cancer because you smoke. Same prediction, but one is pseudoscience. Try to work out which one.

Angela   #232   01:19 pm Jun 01 2011

isnt it funny how ken ring "suggested" the magnitude of a huge earthquake in canterbury that people didnt take much notice and then he gets the shit for it. regarding feb 22nd i read this the day before it happened. and john campbell and gns were putting him down and now they're doing the same thing! what happened to you cannot "forecast / predict" earthquakes?!?


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