Drop in smoking challenged

Smoking rates have not dropped by as much as the Health Ministry has reported, a study published in the New Zealand Medical Journal suggests.

Health researcher Murray Laugesen says the implication that the number of smokers had dropped from 22.8 per cent to 18.1 per cent of the population in four years is "highly doubtful".

The Health Ministry said in a briefing to the new government in November that since 2003, there had been an almost 5 per cent decrease in the total number of people who smoked daily.

However, Dr Laugesen says in his report published today that the falling number of smokers is "incompatible" with statistics showing an increase of more than 296 million cigarettes sold in the same period.

"For the New Zealand Health Survey result to be compatible with cigarette volumes, remaining smokers would have to buy 30 per cent more cigarettes per day".

Dr Laugesen says other comparative surveys on smokers such as an AC Nielsen survey and the 2006 census show just a 1.5 per cent and 1 per cent decrease in smoking prevalence respectively.

He says the introduction of anti-smoking laws, graphic labelling on the outside of packets and price increases on tobacco products have also failed to have an effect on the discrepancies in results as the measures were either already in place at the time or were implemented after the survey.

Dr Laugesen said the New Zealand Health Survey relied on smokers to admit their habit, and that chemical testing of respondents would be more accurate.

"Admitting smoking is embarrassing for many smokers ... There is no other way to measure for changes in the tendency for smokers to under-report their smoking," he says.

"It is highly doubtful if adult daily smoking prevalence has yet decreased below 20 per cent. Smokers responding to the 2007 NZHS, more than in previous health surveys, tended to under-report their smoking".

National tobacco programme manager spokeswoman Karen Evison said the Health Ministry was confident of the "robustness" of its survey data around the prevalence of smokers in New Zealand.

The ministry would not comment further last night.

- © Fairfax NZ News