Pandemic action plan

If swine flu turns pandemic New Zealand officials will plan for 33,000 deaths over an eight-week period, the Ministry of Health's 'Pandemic Action Plan' says.

It says 1.6 million people, or around 40 percent of the population, could become ill over this time.

The plan, published in 2006 by the Ministry of Health, is based on a model that assumes a total case fatality rate of two percent - meaning two in every 100 people who get influenza will die.

Its model says that in the fourth week of the pandemic, 10,000 people would die - against a normal 550 deaths a week.

"It is important to note that this is not a prediction or a forecast of what will happen should a pandemic occur - it is simply not possible to make any such forecast before a pandemic develops," the official plan says.

It says the 1918 pandemic, in which over 8000 New Zealanders died, has provided an understanding of what might happen the next time a pandemic hit.

The 1918 flu had a death rate globally of 2.5 percent. New Zealand ruled Samoa had the highest rate of 22 percent.

During that disaster the death rate of Maori at 4.2 percent was five to seven times higher than that of non-Maori.

This was due to inequalities in socio-economic status, access to healthcare, and higher medical co-morbidities.

The Pandemic Action Plan says these determinants still impact on Maori and advises that Maori in particular have to be regarded as vulnerable.

The death rate of the current swine flu is not known.

Preliminary data out of Mexico says it has a death rate of seven percent but US health officials say that they believe many more people have the virus and have not been treated for it, or have died from it.

Making matters even more complicated is that in Mexico and in other affected countries - including New Zealand - only a tiny fraction of the people with symptoms have been confirmed as having the virus.

- © Fairfax NZ News