NZ better placed than most countries, says IMF
BY VERNON SMALL
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Politics
New Zealand's economy is tipped by the International Monetary Fund to shrink by 2 per cent this year in the global crisis it has dubbed the Great Recession.
However, fund mission chief for Australia and New Zealand Ray Brooks told The Dominion Post yesterday that New Zealand was relatively better placed than other advanced countries, thanks to its low public debt, sound banks, flexible policies and mix of exports.
"This global recession is sizeable. It's the first time in 60 years the IMF projects the world economy to shrink, and the vast economies could shrink by 3 to 3.5 per cent of gdp this year. We don't see quite as high an impact on New Zealand."
Mr Brooks said he broadly agreed with Prime Minister John Key's relatively upbeat assessment delivered to trade unionists last week.
Countries that relied on car manufacturing and hi-tech exports had been particularly badly hit. Last week the IMF issued its global forecasts tipping Japan to shrink 5.8 per cent, Europe 3.2 per cent and the United States 2.6 per cent.
Food commodity exporters and "hard commodity" exporters, such as Australia, may not be as badly hit.
Mr Brooks said New Zealand would likely start a gradual recovery in 2010 and return in the medium term to potential growth of about 2.5 per cent.
A strong banking sector and a flexible exchange rate were also helping New Zealand avoid the fate of countries such as Iceland and Ireland.
Foreign debt was either fully hedged or was denominated in NZ dollars, so banks here did not have to borrow as many US dollars to meet their funding needs.
New Zealand's key vulnerability was its level of short-term borrowings overseas.
Reserve Bank official interest rate cuts had delivered a substantial economic stimulus. That had not been the case in some countries where banks under stress had not passed lower rates on to borrowers. There was also greater stimulus from lower interest rates in the pipeline as borrowers rolled off fixed rate mortgages and the Reserve Bank cut rates again.
- © Fairfax NZ News
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The fund mission chief says "that New Zealand was relatively better placed than other advanced countries, thanks to its low public debt, sound banks, flexible policies and mix of exports."
Who has observed the political scene during Dr Cullen's term as Finance Minister?
Dr Cullen assiduously resisted the National Party-led opposition with its incessant call for tax cuts. The media had bought the opposition's argument and the headlines perpetually sided with National's portrayal of Dr Cullen as "scrooge" and being ideologically opposed to tax cuts.
Dr Cullen said over and over that the surpluses were not "structural", the cash position was in very small surplus, deficits were easily imminent and there had to be debt reduction and a move to a savings culture.
Dr Cullen's very hypothesis has been our one salvation - and the IMF has made reference to this. With KiwiBank and KiwiSaver Labour-led showed the "flexibility" to promote "sound banking" and saving and Dr Cullen insisted on achieving "low public debt".
Just next month National/Act will be implementing tax cuts favouring the high income earners and the leveraged borrowers and luxury-import spenders and consumers who have gotten us into this mess, including those who have been poor stewards of the resources entrusted to them and blindly promoted the ever-widening income gap at the expense of the Mum-n-Dad saver who is today suffering in almost silence.
National/Act are about as "flexible" as a 4"x2" timber dwang - it represents the New Zealand's most conservative core. All their policies have the stench of churlishly undoing everything the Labour-led government achieved as if the last nine years whilst they were in opposition did not exist.
Dr Cullen's hypothesis is now a reality.
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Not only are National/Act implementing tax cuts favouring the high income/big importers/big borrowers next month, but they are hacking into KiwiSaver and reducing its potential return to lower income earners in order to do this.
And John Key makes a statement that if you find yourself unable to spend your tax cuts, maybe you will consider giving it to the less well-off - the very earners he has neglected with his taxation restructure.
The Mum-n-Dad saver has been left in the pits. The income gap has been widened as returns on his savings have been redirected to furnish excessively high earnings to employee technocrats whose duty it was to be responsible stewards of the collective resource.
Trustees have failed to carry out their duty to monitor.
And a conservative government is unable to see the wood for the trees and continues the same old, failed practices.
It is not the wealth gap - it is good to have wealth if it is responsibly managed. It is the income gap.
If these corporates will not improve their efficiency for the benefit of the minor stakeholder and bring the income of employee technocrats into line, President Barack Obama will correct the situation with a taxation regime. He has already made a start on the obscene bonuses.
Our neo-Right, conservative government hasn't cottoned on. The income gap is going to have to narrow.
Tax breaks for high income earners were for the days when these people invested and were responsible stewards - not for the days when they are lavish consumers.
Our government is old-fashioned - it is yesterday's men.