New Zealand 'on road to recovery'
By TRACY WATKINS
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New Zealand is on the road to recovery after emerging from a "once-in-a-lifetime" crisis in better shape than expected, according to the Government's latest economic and fiscal update.
Figures just released show that projections for growth, unemployment, debt and government deficits have improved since the budget update in June, averting the "decade of deficits" previously predicted, though the Government's books will remain in the red till 2016.
The $50 billion hole left in the economy by the recession has also been revised downward to a $23 billion hole by 2014 - effectively halving previous estimates of the cost to the economy of the recession.
In other changes:
* Treasury now expects unemployment to peak at 7 per cent, before dropping to 4.8 per cent by 2014
* Net debt is now expected to hit $57.5 billion in 2013, compared with estimates of $62.6 billion in the June budget update.
* The economy will contract by 0.4 per cent not 1.7 per cent, as previously forecast.
* The budget will remain in deficit - $6.7 billion in 2010/11. But it will be smaller than previously forecast - as a percentage of GDP it will be -2.9 per cent in 2012, compared with previous predictions of -5.0 per cent.
But inflation figures are worse than expected, now tipped to rise to 2.5 per cent next year - compared with 2.4 per cent in the budget update - and remaining above 2 per cent throufh to 2013, compared with earlier predictions that it would remain below 2 per cent throughout that period.
Finance Minister Bill English said the revised figures reflected the fact that the global economy had stabilised and the success of significant Government initiatives in the past year to fight the recession.
"However, that does not mean that all of the problems of the recession have passed - risks remain that growth could weaken again."
While unemployment was forecast to peak sooner and lower than previously predicted, it was likely to remain at elevated levels throughout 2010 as the economy improved.
"So the year ahead will remain difficult for many New Zealanders."
The Government's fiscal position also remained challenging.
The Government accounts were not expected to return to surplus until 2016 despite the forecasts assuming long-term spending restraint and an upwards creep in average tax rates caused by increasing numbers of taxpayers entering the top tax brackets.
"There is little room for slippage.
Mr English signalled a cap on government spending as one way to keep the lid on spending growth.
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Chris, London # 20 High tax rates in the Nth European countries are often cited as the only reason they have more advanced, successful socities free of many social ills. While there is some truth that their socialist system of high taxes and high government spending works well for their societies, it is very simplistic to think that by introcing high taxes and wlfare to other countries, such as NZ, would automatically result in us solving our social ills. The Labour Govt had 9 years of this approach and the result was increased in child poverty, a hallowing out of our productive sector and increases in the divide between rich and poor. It resulted in NZ spending well more than it earns and an exodus of our best and brightest to Australia. We need to take a more indepth look at the key to success and adjust it to the unique properties of each country. Singapore and Japan have very low tax rates, and yet have the lowest crime and social ill statistics in the world. There are many factors to consider such as the ethnic and cultural make-up of the country, the historic background, and the institutions and values which make up the country.
If you look up the places in the world with the lowest unemployment, crime, and healthcare problems, the overiding factor you will see in them all is the incredibly high tax rates. Go ask a Swede about their tax rates.
And in response to hojo #17 - there's no way on earth that figure could be right. $250 billion a week? That's a yearly deficit of 13 trillion dollars. Our entire GDP is 120$ billion.
All just about a point of view i guess. From the 'ivory towers' these looney's live in it must seem pretty good but at the 'coal face' it's getting worse. Just look at the costs of ACC, car rego's, food,gas,and SOON the ETS!. Yeah, better buy a smaller wallet.
Ken # 15. Your comments are spot on. While I agree with the comments by What # 13 that abandoning the disadvantaged creates many social ills for the future. However, the systems we have adopted in NZ (and indeed many other "free-market" anglo-saxon Western economies) since the early 80's whereby we follow liase-faire and then to satisfy the left-wing voters we take the soft option, tax the hard-working productive sector then pay cash hand-outs to the unskilled and disadvantaged, in fundamentally flawed and breeds poverty. It is the root of child poverty, substance abuse, domestic volience, crime and utlimately a failed society. International research is clear that for people to lead happy, successful lives, they need to contribute and belong to society. They need to be financially independent, have a secure family home, of which a two parent family and home ownership are key. Paying the unemployment benefit over a prolonged period for people to do nothing and also paying young single woman the DPB might be easy to do and will appease the "desk-top do-gooders" but it is devasting to the individuals involved and traps them in poverty and opression. We should abolish the unemployment benefit after 3mths and the DPB and replace them will more hand-on systems aimed and getting these people into society. This may cost more in the short term but will bring benefits over the long term. I am pleased to see that the Maori party is advocating sich measures as they they their people are the worst affected but such failed policies.
Pity NZ is still borrowing $250 billion a week to pay for the election bribe policies of the previous administration. Ending Working For Families, scrapping Interest Free Student Loans, and targeting Free Childcare and GP visits to those who need them, will go a long way to reducing NZ's climbing debt levels.
We've recovered well because we were in such a strong position going into it thanks to Helen Clark - shame National is busy wasting the advantage by cutting R&D and being too scared to take NZ forward.
Cut back on welfarism. A safety net is essential, after 12 months a beneficiary should take any job offered to them by WINZ if they haven't found their own job within that time, also the unemployed, sickness and DPB beneficiaries should be doing community work as the taxpayer should not be getting something for nothing. Reduce the dependency on benefits and beneficiaries breeding more beneficiaries by enforcing the rules, if they don't stick to the rules, no benefits. If the have a history of job hopping, chucking jobs in for no good reason etc then no benefit. Cut back on ACC entitlements and levy all people who engage is riskier activities, also cut back on Working for Families 'entitlements' if you can't afford to have children either don't have them, save or get another part-time job or some other income making venture instead of relying on government handouts. Boost education spending to give people the skills and knowledge they need to stand on their own two feet and take individual responsibility for their lives. Support entrepreneurial endeavors and individual brilliance to help people become financially better off through hard work and their own ingenuity or provide help to enable them to do so. NZ needs to grow it's economy and it's people positively using tough love to wean people of state dependency and positive and financial reinforcement to those who take up the challenge of making themselves a 'do it to yourself' project of self improvement and enrichment in all aspects of their lives.
"once-in-a-lifetime crisis"???
Well let me see now. I'm not that old yet I can recall the carless days during the fuel crisis in the late 70s. I can distinctly recall the '87 crash. and I also recall heading into the work place in the early 90s when you couldn't buy a job. So this would be the 4th crisis of my lifetime and I'm not even 40 yet!
You may not have noticed but it was the years leading up to the crisis that were important not the (so far)one year after. Do some reading about other societies around the world and you'll find the less the disadvantaged are taken care of the more violent and unhappy the society is on the whole. Also, if that is your measure of a great country then NZ has never been one. We have been at the forefront of social welfare for the last 120 years and have only begun to embrace selfish neo-liberal policies, to the great disadvantage to us all.
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I don't think our governments, past or present, have done anything to shield or improve NZ from the most recent financial crisis/recession. If we were all honest, NZ was just lucky.
What caused all this anyway? Simply put - greed. The US have an overabundance of greedy people (in terms of food and money!!) but NZ is not much better.
I do wonder like Tyrrell #4 why the world economy is relaint on people buying stuff. That's exactly what the US did after WWII - encouraged people to buy, buy, buy to stimulate their economy and it hasn't stopped since.
While the principles on welfare suggested by "From The Sidelines" are well presented, and I agree with them to be fair, they will not work as intended. The problem with NZ society is that there are people in it. Where there are people invovled they will mess with well meaning ideals, be it Captalism, Communism or any such world order you desire.
My only suggestion that will provide a fool-proof solution to NZ's problems is to remove all the people.