Nats, John Key popular throughout year - poll

Last updated 14:56 22/12/2009

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Support for the National Party averaged 52 percent during 2009 and peaked at 54 percent, the highest rating since tracking began in 1991, UMR Research said today in its annual Mood of the Nation report.

However, National ended the year with a slight drop, going down to 48 percent which was its lowest since the immediate post-election period.

National won last year's election with 44.9 percent of the party vote.

The Labour Party hovered in the low 30s for most of the year, with ratings between 30 percent and 32 percent.

In contrast to National, it ended the year on 35 percent which was its highest since before the last election.

Labour's election night figure was 33.9 percent of the party vote.

The Green Party regularly received more than 7 percent support – it won 6.7 percent of the party vote in the election – and nearly reached double figures in February with 9.8 percent.

The party's only poor result was in November when it recorded 5.9 percent.

ACT, despite its leader and deputy leader holding ministerial portfolios, rated below its election night 3.65 percent. It started the year on 2.8 percent and ended on 2.4 percent, with a peak of 3.8 percent in September.

The Maori Party's support was stable throughout 2009, hovering between 2 percent and 3 percent. It won 2.3 percent of the party vote in the election, but it won five electorate seats.

United Future, whose leader Peter Dunne is Minister of Revenue, averaged just over 0.5 percent compared with its election night 0.87 percent. It was the lowest of the parties covered by UMR Research, peaking in January at 1 percent and dropping to zero percent in May and July.

New Zealand First, although it didn't win any seats at the last election, started 2009 polling at 2.2 percent and ended on 2.7 percent. Without an electorate seat, NZ First will have to reach the 5 percent threshold in 2011 to return to Parliament.

Prime Minister John Key rode a wave of popularity throughout most of 2009.

During 2008 his favourability rating ("very favourable" or "somewhat favourable") was consistently in the mid 60s, but it jumped to 75 percent at the beginning of 2009 and then stayed in the high 70s throughout most of the year. Mr Key's rating peaked at 80 percent and then 81 percent in June and October.

No other politician, in a series dating back to 1996, has recorded a favourability rating as high as that.

The proportion of voters with an unfavourable opinion ("somewhat unfavourable" and "very unfavourable") was low for a politician, moving between 16 percent and 20 percent for most of the year.

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However, his unfavourability rating climbed to 22 percent towards the end of the year, reflecting the slight drop in National's popularity.

Labour leader Phil Goff's favourability rating fluctuated between a low of 44 percent and a high of 51 percent, while his unfavourability drifted between 27 percent and 38 percent.

Towards the end of the year his fortunes followed the same pattern as Mr Key's, with the proportion of unfavourable opinion increasing.

- NZPA

18 comments
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Gordon   #18   02:08 pm Dec 23 2009

What I don't understand is how all the anti-National supporters can continue to slam JK and his govt. What has anyone actually lost from Labour being voted out and National getting voted in? Absolutely nothing. People go on about how National have cut entitlements and how they are not increasing spending in certain areas. The only reason they are doing that, is because if they continue spending as Labour did during the best years NZ has seen recently in its tax take, national debt will sky rocket and then people will complain even more. What I don't understand is when JK and his Govt have found a balance between increasing spending whilst maintaining debt levels at repayable amounts, is how can anyone actually complain. You have two options: 1) Continue spending as was under the Labour govt and NZ get in to mass amounts of debt which will affect everyone OR 2) Cut come entitlements of which the majority don't actually use, until it can actually be afforded. How is this such a hard concept for people to understand? Point: Stop complaining and start realising that whats happening is improving things. Good things take time.

Wayne McIndoe   #17   12:34 pm Dec 23 2009

Cannot see too much changeing next year with regards to the polls ; good to see the Greens polling well above 5%, they provide parliament with a different perspective - variety of opinions is helpful in a democracy. Yes some of Nations big policies (Felicia #14) may have an affect on the polls, but I have a feeling the electorate have moved somewhat to the right of centre (note the agreeing comments to Paula Bennetts proposed benefit reforms)

Response Abilityt   #16   11:02 am Dec 23 2009

It looks like things are relatively unchanged, which is probably a balancing of faux pas on the part of the major parties... for every unpopular move by National, Labour managed to get in trouble and vice versa.

I'm a bit surprised by NZ First still being around, it indicates that there is a reasonable chance that they might be back at the next election. I don't like Winston, but he got more votes than Rodney, and Democracy isn't about getting the people I want into power, it's about getting the people that everyone wants into power.

I think National has done pretty well this year. The first few months were a bit of a mess, but that was probably changing from the opposition mindset into the governing mindset (Minister Bennett and a few others still need to make some adjustments). By and large NZ's government has and will do pretty well... they are all smart people with good advisers. In fact I imagine that Labour would probably have done pretty much the same had they returned to power in '08.

Overall no major stumbles by anyone, with the possible exception of Mr Hariwera, notable not of itself, but because it points to a possible division in the Maori Party. Dr Sharples and Mrs Turia will be working behind the scenes to promote party unity I'd say.

RA

cortina80   #15   08:09 am Dec 23 2009

NZ First is on the comeback trail and it will be interesting to see how they influence things at the next election.

Felicia   #14   06:55 pm Dec 22 2009

Let's see how popular the Nats stay after they implement their major policies next year.

Stuart   #13   06:25 pm Dec 22 2009

what a pity they don't measure the effect of shill journalism by stuff.co.nz on these polls.

chris   #12   06:03 pm Dec 22 2009

Labor is actually up quite a lot in this poll. Would some of the doubters like to admit that Goff's gamble with the his Foreshore position and the reserve bank have begun to pay off.

paul_c   #11   04:35 pm Dec 22 2009

national didnt win the last election labour lost it. so suggest john key (who i voted for) better start listening and say no to the whol kyoto/copenahegen bs and get the country on track

wake up nz   #10   04:25 pm Dec 22 2009

Nats, Labour, Greens, etc. they're all politicians- start a referendum to get politicians paid what nurses, fire fighters, teachers, and ambulance oficers are paid- because these people actually do something in the community, the politicians I can't say what they do besides lie, cheat and steal.

do your research   #9   04:21 pm Dec 22 2009

What was accomplished- a huge push for the super city (to sell our assets off) and a bike track.

WHAT ELSE- 2 Million taken from special needs children, education skimmed back, teachers asked to take a pay cut for other school staff, yet politicians wages are inflation adjusted, and they get housing and travel allowances. Crims were not given harder sentences (man given three years for beating an old man to death in front of children), go to the sensible sentencing page for all the other cases. Voted against anti-smacking but no our vote only counts when you vote for National.

Key said nothing was wrong with Bill English taking money for his housing allowance even though he lied, said nothing on Rodney's romp around the world with his girlfriend, and had no stones on Hone's statements and his trip to France. And don't forget Chris Carter.

And with 55 Million and Key didn't give one dollar to his old school- Flight of the Concords flew in from the States and raised money for their school.

Good year wouldn't you say- John Key is right Kiwis do need to learn to read.


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